Martinsville STP 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – It’s hard to go wrong if Jimmie Johnson is your fantasy pick to win the Martinsville STP 500. He’s entering the race as the favorite to win. Odds makers have his odds set at 2/1. They have every reason to like him here because he’s been a dominant driver here. On Sunday Johnson will start in 4th. In 2007 he won from this starting position. The chassis he’ll be driving is the very one he drove in both races last season. Jimmie Johnson has a lot of good tracks on the schedule but Martinsville may very well be his best. In 24 races he has 8 wins, 17 top fives and 21 top tens. Also at Martinsville he’s paced the field for 2,451 laps. That lap led total equates out to leading more than 100 laps a start. One of the greatest attributes that comes along with picking Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville is that he avoids trouble. Excluding his first start he’s never had a result lower than 12th. Last fall Johnson had a strong car. He earned the third best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 5th and led 123 laps. In the spring race at Martinsville in 2013 Johnson was dominant. He started 1st, finished 1st, had a 1st place average running position, led 346 laps and earned a near perfect 148.4 driver rating. In fall 2012 he finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, and led 193 laps. In spring 2012 he was either going to finish 1st or 2nd but he got taken out in the late “Hail Mary” move from Clint Bowyer. In practice on Friday Johnson didn’t seem as happy here as he normally is. He was a little off because of the new rules package. I personally wouldn’t be to concerned about that. In the first race here with the COT he was junk early but by the end of the race Chad Knaus had it tuned to his liking and he went to victory lane.

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2. Jeff Gordon – Last fall at Martinsville Jeff Gordon won his 8th Grand Father clock. That win tied him with Jimmie Johnson for the most Martinsville wins among active drivers. His win was his first here since 2005. From a career perspective Martinsville is arguably his best track. In 42 races he has 27 top fives and 34 top tens. Also the safety of picking him is nearly unparalleled. Only four times in his career has he had a result outside the top fifteen. In last falls victory what set him apart from the field is how good he was over long runs. He’s displayed that attribute many times here in recent races. Last fall he had a 5th place average running position, led 78 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. At the end of the race it came down to him versus Matt Kenseth and he had the edge based on his experience. Last spring at Martinsville he could’ve potentially won but a late caution changed the complexion of the race. His car was good over long runs and at the end drivers with good short run cars had the advantage. In that event he had a 6th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In fall 2012 he finished 7th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In spring 2012 he likely would’ve won but a late caution came out and it regrouped the field. He was at a disadvantage at the end because he was on old tires compared to everyone else but Jimmie Johnson. In that race Clint Bowyer did his “Hail Mary” and took him out. On Sunday Jeff Gordon will start in 5th. That’s the closest he’s started near the front since 2009. The chassis he’ll be driving is the same one he piloted in both races last year. His odds to win are currently at 5/1.

Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take on Martinsville), Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Martinsville Starting Lineup, Scouting Report Fall 2013, Scouting Report Spring 2013, PROS Rankings, Chassis Selections

3. Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin missed last weeks race due to metal in his eye, but now it’s out and he’s ready to race. This weekend at Martinsville I think Denny Hamlin is extra motivated to get to victory lane. When he’s driving with a chip on his shoulder or feels he has adversity to overcome the competition better watch out. On Sunday Hamlin will be starting on the outside of the front row. This race has been won from that starting position 11.5% percent of the time. In 2008 Hamlin started in this very position and went on to win the race. At Martinsville Denny Hamlin’s traditional strengths are being good over long runs and rolling through the corners. At Martinsville Hamlin has been very successful. In sixteen starts he’s won 4 times and has finished in the top ten 81% percent of the time. Also at Martinsville he has a 8.1 average finish and has led 1,152 laps. Last fall at Martinsville Hamlin had a solid race. He started on the pole, finished 7th and had a 7th place average running position. Also in the race he led 14 laps and earned the 5th best driver rating. Last spring Hamlin missed the race due to his back injury. In October 2012 which is his next most recent race he may of very well had the best car in the field, he certainly passed more cars than anyone. In that race he had not one but two speeding penalties. Those were just minor setbacks because he still raced his way to the front. In the race he had another problem but this one he couldn’t overcome. Around lap #370 he had master switch problems which effectively ended his day. If that problem didn’t happen I think he was a lock to finish in the top three. When you take away Hamlin’s master switch problem and 2006 wreck he has a 4.1 average finish and a worst result of 12th.Currently his odds to win are listed at 8/1.