Texas Duck Commander 500 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Jimmie Johnson – It will be hard to go wrong if Jimmie Johnson is your fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Texas Duck Commander 500. Last fall at Texas Jimmie Johnson dominated and won his third race at Texas. In the race he was virtually unchallenged. Evidence of that is his perfect 150.0 driver rating. Perfect driver ratings are rare and aren’t easy to earn. In the race he started 3rd, had a 2nd place average running position and led 255 laps. His race wasn’t just all about him pulling away from the field. With about a quarter of the race remaining he had a slow pit stop and as a result he lost the lead and went back to about 4th. That wasn’t a problem for him because he worked his way up through the field relatively quickly. In the spring race at Texas in 2013 Johnson had a solid race. He earned the third best driver rating and finished 6th. It’s important to note in that particular event he wasn’t a serious threat to win. In fall 2012 at Texas Jimmie Johnson got his 2nd victory at Texas. In that race he started on the pole and led the most laps. It’s important to note in that race he likely wouldn’t of won if he wasn’t aided by late cautions. In the spring 2012 race he had the best car but a lapped Ryan Newman fought him on the track which slowed him down allowing Greg Biffle to pass him. In that race he led 156 laps, earned the second best driver rating and finished second. From a career perspective Texas has been a very good track for Johnson. He has a 8.5 average starting position, 8.7 average finish and has had a result in the top five 48% percent of the time. At Las Vegas Johnson finished 6th, had a 3rd place average running position, led 34 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. At Auto Club Speedway Johnson was a lock to win until he had his late tire problem. (Yahoo A Driver)

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Joey Logano – Joey Logano would be a good fantasy pick for the Texas Duck Commander 500. At Las Vegas earlier this year he had a very strong car. He won the pole, finished 3rd and led 44 laps. On 1.5 mile tracks it’s clear Penske Racing has done their homework and for that reason alone they should be taken very seriously on Sunday. Last season at Texas Joey Logano is the only driver who finished in the top five in both races. In the fall he was very strong. He started in 12th, had a 4th place average running position, finished 3rd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In spring 2013 Logano had an eventful race. When the engines fired up to start the event he wasn’t even in his car. The reason is because he had inspection issues and his team had to change the #22’s rear end. As a result he started in the back. Early in the race after he passed the low tier cars he was stuck in mediocrity for much of the event. The reason is because his setup was likely thrown off after changing his rear end. Late in the race he used pit strategy which got him into the top 5. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th. In fall 2012 he finished 11th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Recommended Reading: Texas Front Runner Rankings, Texas Mid Pack Predictions, Yahoo C List Preview, Texas Scouting Report (Fall 2013), Texas Scouting Report (Spring 2013), Weekly Poll

Matt Kenseth – At Texas Matt Kenseth is a top five machine. He’s finished in the top five 57% percent of the time and has had a result within that mark in 12 of the last 17 races. Throughout his career Texas has been a great track for this two-time winner. His career average finish is 8.3. Last year at Texas Matt Kenseth was good in both races. In spring 2013 he had top five potential but he finished 12th. In the race he started in 20th and by lap 40 he was up to the top ten. Over the next two hundred laps after that I would estimate his average running position was about 5th. With about 50 laps to go Kenseth was a victim of a caution during a pit cycle. That dropped him from 4th to about 13th. Over the last 50 laps he wasn’t able to advance any further forward than 12th. Last fall at Texas Matt Kenseth was very strong. He started in 6th and his 4th place finish underrates how good he was. 150 laps into the event he had the fastest car on the track. Then on lap 173 while he was running in 2nd he got caught speeding on pit road. He had to serve a pass through penalty and it dropped him back to about 16th. Then after he was penalized he really kicked on the after burners and he charged his way up through the field passing other very good cars. At Las Vegas earlier this season Kenseth had a competitive car. He finished 10th, earned the 10th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. At Auto Club Speedway he finished 4th and had a 5th place average running position. (Yahoo A Driver)

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