Post Practice Texas Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Duck Commander 500

More Raceday Rain in the Forecast

Texas Motor Speedway held an unusual on-track schedule this weekend, which made practice speeds less relevant (in my opinion) because the cars were on track earlier and later than they will be during the actual race…maybe. Right now they’re calling for a 70% chance of rain on Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas, so we could have to deal with mother nature again this weekend. The same people tend to run up front at Texas Motor Speedway, though, so relying on the historical favorites should still leave you with a solid fantasy week. Click here to view this weekend’s practice speeds: Practice #1 — Happy Hour and be sure to read Ryan’s notes on each session as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Tony Stewart won the pole for this year’s Duck Commander 500, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Texas is a 1.5-mile race track, and the only other track that size we’ve been to so far this season is Las Vegas. [box type=”tick” border=”full”]This week only: month-long memberships are 25% off! Sign up for the ifantasyrace advantage to gain unlimited access to all of our weekly fantasy content. Click here to join now![/box]

Final Top 15 Ranking For The Duck Commander 500:

11. Kyle Busch – Starts 29th – Yahoo! A Group **Risk Factor: Medium Risk** Rowdy finished 2nd to Chase Elliott in the Nationwide race here on Friday night, and although he might not have that strong of a Cup car on Sunday, a top 5 isn’t out of reach for this team considering how long of a race it is (500 miles). The #18 Toyota ended up an abysmal 30th on the speed chart in Happy Hour on Saturday but Kyle did post the 6th-best ten-lap average during that practice session and was 5th on that chart in Practice #1. This team obviously has a better car in race conditions than in qualifying trim. The younger Busch brother actually has a pretty consistent record here at Texas Motor Speedway (which is saying a lot), with a career average finish of 14th and just four finishes outside of the top 20 in 17 career starts. Rowdy won this race one year ago and has an average driver rating of 114.7 over the last two years at Texas, second only to Jimmie Johnson’s 134.3. The #18 was another team that missed it in qualifying and will roll off the grid in 29th. Something to keep in mind: Kyle Busch does have a victory in 2014, which means that this team could use this race to test, as we visit Texas again during the Chase.

12. Paul Menard – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group **Risk Factor: Medium Risk** Menard had one of the best cars last month at Las Vegas, finishing 3rd, and judging by the practice sessions at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, he has another fast #27 Chevrolet. It’s also worth noting that this team decided to bring the exact same chassis from Las Vegas to the track this weekend. Paul worked extensively on race runs on Friday and Saturday–running 85 laps total over the two practices–and wound up inside the top 10 on the speed chart both in Practice #1 and Happy Hour. He had the 6th-best ten-lap average during that first session and wound up 3rd on that chart in the final practice. Looking at his recent history here at Texas, Menard has finished 15th or better in four of the last seven races at this track with a best result of 5th coming back in 2011. The #27 has finished inside the top 10 in three of the last four Sprint Cup races and I think Menard had a nice possibility of adding another on Sunday in the Duck Commander 500.

13. Denny Hamlin – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group **Risk Factor: Medium Risk** Denny Hamlin had a pretty good qualifying effort on Saturday but I’m just giving up hope on this team more and more each week. With his 19th-place finish at Martinsville last week (what the hell?), the #11 crew now has ended up outside of the top 10 in three of the last four Sprint Cup races, and although they did well at Bristol, rain affected that race. Denny did post a 7th-place result here at Texas last fall, but that’s his only top 10 in his last five starts at this track. He won both events here in 2010, and although he starts in 6th and had some speed in practice (4th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour), when you take everything into account, I think Hamlin will finish in the teens on Sunday. Speed-wise he’s top 10 but this team just doesn’t have it all together, and I’m not exactly confident in Darian Grubb’s strategic abilities.

14. Kurt Busch – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group **Risk Factor: High Risk** I’ll give Kurt Busch some love in the rankings this week because I’ve pretty much neglected him all season long. This team is riding high after their win at Martinsville last weekend and you know I don’t like going against the most recent race winner. Kurt nailed the wall in Practice #1 on Friday but came out in his backup car in Happy Hour on Saturday and paced the field. He went on to qualify 11th later that day. What concerns me the most is that this team only had 18 laps of practice on his backup car, as well as the fact that Texas hasn’t been kind to Busch as of late. He finished 8th here in the fall 2012 event but that’s one of only two top 10s in his last seven starts at this track. He has two straight top 5s heading into this weekend, though, so it’s not like momentum isn’t on Kurt’s side.

15. Ryan Newman – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group **Risk Factor: Medium Risk** I’m somewhat on the fence in regards to Ryan Newman this weekend. After their 20th-place effort at Martinsville last weekend, this #31 team now has three straight finishes outside of the top 15 after starting the 2014 season with two top 10s in the first three events. That being said, Newman does have back-to-back top 10 finishes at Texas coming into Sunday’s Duck Commander 500, and just one result outside of the top 16 in the last six. “The Rocketman” flew under the radar a bit again this weekend (no surprise there) but did end up 12th on the speed chart in Happy Hour and also 12th in ten-lap average. The #31 Chevrolet ran 7th at Las Vegas last month, and although it wouldn’t surprise me to see Newman sneak up around there at Texas on Sunday, I think a finish around 10th is more likely. He did run the high line in practice on Saturday, which should be the fastest way around the track in this week’s race.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Brian Vickers and the #55 team have been a nice surprise in this young 2014 season and their 16th-place finish is their worst since Phoenix in March. Brian had the 11th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and had the 5th-fastest lap time in Practice #1 on Friday. The last time Brian raced at Texas was subbing in for Denny Hamlin in this event last season and he ended up finishing 8th. A teens finish is expected out of the #55 on Sunday, although they might surprise some people. Vickers finished 13th at Las Vegas. The 15th-place finisher at Las Vegas, Jamie McMurray, is another one to keep your eye on here at Texas. The #1 Chevrolet ranked 9th on the speed chart in Happy Hour and Jamie posted top 10 lap speeds in both practice sessions this weekend. He has finished between 14th and 18th in three of the last four Texas events. Clint Bowyer is off speed-wise, and although he did end up with a top 10 at Martinsville last weekend, I’m not ready to trust him whatsoever. That being said, he hasn’t finished worse than 17th here at Texas since the 2010 season and has five top 10 results in the last seven races here. At Las Vegas last month he ended up 23rd, although the #15 was much better than that. I’m just worried about this team’s inability to finish races this season, so when you consider that they haven’t had much speed this weekend, I don’t think it’s worth the risk taking Bowyer on Sunday. He starts 25th. Trevor Bayne will make his 8th career Sprint Cup Series start at Texas on Sunday and has, thus far, posted four finishes of 17th or 18th along with three results outside of the top 20. This weekend, the #21 Ford was inside the top 10 in both practice sessions, and while that is encouraging, don’t get your hopes up. Bayne ended up 20th at Las Vegas last month and should see a similar result in this weekend’s Duck Commander 500, although he did qualify 7th. Martin Truex, Jr. has zero top 10s in 2014 but his best result did come at Vegas (14th). The #78 ranked 13th on the speed chart in Happy Hour on Saturday and was 10th in ten-lap average. Truex has ended up 14th or better in each of the last five races here at Texas and could surprise some people on Sunday, but he’s far too risky of a pick for me to highly recommend him. That being said, you don’t have to complete avoid Truex, and he’s probably one of the best sleeper options this weekend. Kurt Busch qualified 2nd for this race one year ago in this car.