Texas Duck Commander 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – Three-time Texas winner Jimmie Johnson is entering the Duck Commander 500 as the favorite. His odds to win are 5/1. The reason he’s viewed as the favorite is because he’s been so good here recently. He’s won two out of the last three races and has had a result in the top ten in 7 of the last 8 races. Last fall at Texas Jimmie Johnson absolutely dominated the event. He had a perfect driver rating, led 255 laps and earned the #1 spot in the PROS Rankings. Whenever it looked like anyone had anything for him it seemed like he just shifted his car into another gear and extended his lead. The chassis he’ll be using on Sunday is the very one he used in that race. In spring 2013 at Texas he once again had a solid race. In that event he finished 6th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In fall 2012 at Texas Johnson won his second race here. In that event he didn’t have the best car but was aided by some late cautions. In the spring 2012 race Johnson had the best car but a lapped Ryan Newman fought him hard and ultimately cost him the race. In that particular event he led 156 laps and finished 2nd. Throughout his career Texas has been a good track for him. He has a 8.7 average finish and has had a result in the top five 48% percent of the time. At Las Vegas earlier this year Johnson had a great car. He finished 6th, had a 3rd place average running position, led 34 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. At Auto Club Speedway Johnson had the race won until he had a flat tire in the closing laps. In practice Jimmie Johnson had a great car. Many garage insiders think he potentially has the car to beat. In Happy Hour his ten lap average speeds ranked as the second quickest. On Sunday Johnson will start in 16th.

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2. Kevin Harvick – At Las Vegas earlier this year Kevin Harvick looked very impressive. He might’ve had the car to beat but his day ended early with problems. You should weigh that race heavily in terms of how you go about picking a driver for the Duck Commander 500. Harvick’s odds to win are currently 8/1. The chassis he’ll be driving on Sunday is brand new. In practice Kevin Harvick was very fast. In Happy Hour he had the best 10 lap average. He said his car was loose throughout the corner but I wouldn’t be concerned. A loose car is a fast car. On Sunday he’ll start in 3rd. This race has been won from that starting position 5 times. Texas has been a good track for Kevin Harvick. He’s finished in the top ten half the time and has a 12.3 average finish. Recently at Texas Kevin Harvick has been one of the most consistent drivers. In the last 9 Texas races he’s finished between 5th and 13th in every race but one. Last fall at Texas Kevin Harvick had a fast car and he was able to pass in the middle to upper grooves of the track. In the race he finished 8th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In spring 2013 at Texas Kevin Harvick started in the back due to an engine change. That wasn’t to much of a problem for him though. He had a great car that worked well in the top line. By lap 100 he had driven up to the top ten. From that point on though he didn’t get much closer to the front. In the middle portion of the race I would estimate his average running position was around 9th. With about 50 laps to go in the race he was burned by a caution at an unfavorable time during the pit cycle. That dropped him from about 9th to the high teens. His car in the closing segment wasn’t as strong as it was before and he only managed to rally up to a 13th place finish.

Recommended Reading: Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take after practice), Practice Notes, Practice Speeds, Practice Speeds Cheat Sheet, Starting Lineup

3. Brad Keselowski – Las Vegas is a 1.5 mile track like Texas and earlier this season Keselowski drove to victory lane. In that event he also earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (53) and had a 5th place average running position. This week NASCAR is using a special multi-groove tire tread. Last year at Atlanta NASCAR also used this tire and in that race Brad Keselowski might’ve been the driver to beat if his motor didn’t blow up while he was leading. Recently at Texas Keselowski has been one of the strongest performers. Last fall he was arguably Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competition. In the race he finished 6th, earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 30 laps. He likely would’ve finished better but with about 75 laps to go while he was running in 2nd he had a slow pit stop that dropped him back to 9th. At Texas in spring 2013 Keselowski rallied to a 9th place finish. It wasn’t an easy 9th though. Prior to the race his team was forced to change the rear end of their car and as a result it messed up the setup. Every time pit road was open early he came in to tune up his car. That lost him lots of track position. Then while he was running mid pack on lap 138 he thought he had a loose right rear and made an unexpected pit stop that dropped him two laps down. After that point in the race he used pit strategy when he could to get back on the lead lap. All of these circumstances make his 9th place finish a little more impressive. In fall 2012 at Texas Keselowski had the race won but late cautions were his undoing. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd. In that race he started in 8th, had a 3rd place average running position, led 75 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. Keselowski’s odds to win are currently 7/1. This chassis he’s piloting is brand new. This week he’s paying very close attention to tire wear. In Happy Hour his 10 lap average ranked as the 7th quickest. On Sunday he’ll start in 2nd. This race has been won from that starting position three times.