Post Practice Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Toyota Owners 400
Scratch That Itch
We’re back at Richmond International Raceway for the first time since the infamous “itch it” spin-out fiasco with Clint Bowyer last fall. I don’t think we’re going to see any shenanigans like that this weekend with the Toyota Owners 400, but what we will see is some good, old-fashioned Saturday night racing. Qualifying was rained out Friday so the starting lineup (click here to view) was set by Practice #1 speeds, meaning rookie Kyle Larson will lead the field to the green. NASCAR was able to complete both scheduled practice sessions, though, and those speeds can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to check out Ryan’s notes over each session: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Please note that the teams practiced during the day and we will race at night. Also, with the overall speed charts, remember that most teams were in qualifying trim when they posted those lap times. Finally, you will see me refer to the Phoenix race frequently in this article, and that’s because it’s the one track on the circuit that is somewhat close to Richmond.
[box type=”tick” border=”full”]ifantasyrace provides the most comprehensive fantasy NASCAR coverage on a week-to-week basis. What you are seeing now is just a preview of what we have to offer. To get unlimited access to all of our weekly fantasy content, join now (click here)![/box]
Final Top 15 Ranking For The Toyota Owners 400:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Carl Edwards – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The #99 team was concerned solely with race trim during the practice sessions on Friday, but because of the qualifying washout Edwards will start 16th. We all know that this team is testing the entire rest of the way until the Chase, but from what I’ve seen so far, they don’t seem to be doing anything too aggressive on raceday, so that doesn’t concern me as much as it did a couple of weeks ago. Richmond has been a very good race track for Cousin Carl, as he owns a 13.7 career average finish here over 19 starts while ending up inside the top 10 just over half of the time (52.6%). Lately, however, it seems like this #99 team has really stepped up their game on this type of track, particularly Richmond and Phoenix. Edwards won the fall race here last season and was 6th in this event. At Phoenix back in March the #99 ran 8th, and could’ve won both races in the desert last season if not for fuel issues in the fall. Edwards was 6th-quickest on the Happy Hour speed chart and should be good for a solid top 10 finish on Saturday night, or something close to there.
12. Kyle Larson – Starts 1st – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
For us fantasy NASCAR players, it’s hard to handicap the rookie Kyle Larson, who from now on I am going to start calling “The Phenom.” He has a very limited NASCAR career overall and is making is first Sprint Cup starts at almost all of the tracks this year. That being said, it’s hard not to take notice of his talent, especially as of late. Over the last six races, Larson has a better average finish than all but four drivers–Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch–meaning he’s scored more points than guys such as Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. The driver of the #42 Chevrolet has convinced me that he is the real deal and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him in victory lane this year. Phoenix is a track somewhat similar to Richmond and Larson had a blazing fast car all weekend there back in March, despite finishing a “disappointing” 20th. At RIR this weekend, Kyle was really fast off the truck, posting the fastest lap in Practice #1 along with the 10th-best ten-lap average. He was 9th-quick on the speed chart during Happy Hour. Because of the qualifying wash-out, Larson will start the Toyota Owners 400 from the pole and I really think he can grab another top 10 finish on Sunday night. In the two Nationwide races here last season he finished 14th and 8th, for what it’s worth.
13. Brian Vickers – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I’m beginning to think that Brian Vickers is simply being overlooked by the majority of fantasy racing players right now because I’m not hearing much about him at all. Believe it or not, the #55 team has posted the 6th-best average finish (12.5) over the last six Sprint Cup races and had a really fast race car at Darlington a couple of weeks ago but ended up finishing 26th (I’m not 100% sure what happened). Brian’s success here at Richmond is very limited (16 career starts, zero top 5s, three top 10s) but with how this season is turning out, I’m relying more on momentum with each passing race weekend. That being said, taking Vickers on Saturday night will be risky, but it might be worth it. The #55 was 6th-quickest in Practice #1 and ended up 15th on the speed chart in Happy Hour with the 12th-best ten-lap average. Looking back at Phoenix, Brian ended up 25th after starting the race 16th. I don’t think he has a shot at a top 10 finish in the Toyota Owners 400 but a solid top 15 isn’t out of the question for Vickers come Saturday night.
14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
If any other driver was in the #5 Chevrolet this weekend I would have them ranked top 5. However, because Mr. Inconsistency/Constant Disappointment Kasey Kahne drives that particular car, I have to curb my expectations. The #5 ranked 3rd on both ten-lap average charts during the practice sessions on Friday, as well as posting top 5 fast laps in each practice as well. Taking that into consideration, as well as the fact that Kasey will roll off the grid in 4th on Saturday night, we could be looking at the #5 team grabbing their first top 5 finish of the season–and first top 10 since Bristol back in March. Sadly, I’ve learned not to get overly excited about Kasey Kahne–especially with night races, as he tends to disappoint more than normal in those. He ended up 21th and 14th here last season and averages a finish of right around 18th at Richmond with just four top 5s in 20 career starts. It’s either going to be a win or a teens finish for Kasey Kahne this weekend, and with how his season has gone thus far, I would bet on the latter.
15. Ryan Newman – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Believe it or not, this is actually Ryan Newman’s best track on the circuit (statistically). He owns a career average finish of 11.4 here at Richmond over 24 starts, and has finished inside the top 10 in 58.3% of those attempts. “The Rocketman” did win here at RIR but that was way back in 2003. The #31 team brought chassis no. 435 to the track this weekend which the same one that Ryan was able to salvage a 20th-place finish with back at Martinsville despite having mechanical issues (I want to say it was no power steering but I could be wrong). Anyway, the #31 Chevrolet was better in Happy Hour than Practice #1 on Friday, posting the fastest lap and the 11th-best ten-lap average. Newman might be able to sneak into the top 10 before it’s all said and done on Saturday night but I just like a few other drivers more than him heading into the Toyota Owners 400. He ended up 7th back at Phoenix, which is encouraging, and ran 3rd here at Richmond last fall.
Just Missed The Top 15:
I’m done with Denny Hamlin (ranked 16th) until further notice. Let’s all take a moment here to realize that this #11 team has just one top 10 finish since the season-opening Daytona 500, and that was at Bristol where Denny sat on the pole. The good news is that they haven’t ended up worse than 19th over that span either, although Hamlin has finished in that spot in three of the six events (remember, he missed Fontana). Richmond has been a very good track for Denny but I’m still not picking him this weekend. He sports an impressive 8.9 career average finish here with two victories and ten finishes of 11th or better in fifteen career starts. The #11 will start 28th on Saturday night and that was the nail in the coffin for me. Hamlin did rank 7th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, though, so with my luck he will probably finish top 5. Jamie McMurray (ranked 17th) is a nice sleeper option for Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400. He had a top 10 car back at Phoenix and will roll off the grid in 7th when we go green this weekend. The reason I have him ranked 17th is because the #1 never really impressed me in terms of ten-lap average. That being said, don’t forget that Jamie finished 4th here last fall after starting 7th and has ended up 17th or better in all but two races so far in the 2014 season. Greg Biffle (ranked 18th) posted his second straight finish of 6th or better at Darlington a couple of weeks ago, which was somewhat surprising because I don’t think I even had him in the top 15 for that race. I once again have The Biff ranked a little low going into the race this weekend but he had just six top 10s in 23 career Richmond starts, and just three in the past seven years. One thing I like about the #16 Ford this weekend is that it ended up 5th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. Greg will roll off the grid in 26th when the green flag waves on Saturday night. I have Paul Menard ranked 19th this week, and he got knocked down a little bit simply because I’m still a little salty with his performance at Darlington a couple of weeks ago (just kidding, but seriously). Menard finished 13th and 5th in the two Richmond races last season but I don’t think he’ll be able to match that on Saturday, at least the latter result. He will roll off the grid in 9th, though, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question. He ran 23rd at Phoenix in March. Rounding out the top 20 is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Richmond was actually a decent track last season for the 2013 Rookie of the Year, as he ended up 16th and 10th. The #17 Ford will roll off the grid in 29th on Saturday but should be a top 20 car for most of the night. Stenhouse was 8th on the ten-lap average chart in Practice #1 and worked exclusively on qualifying during Happy Hour (which explains the poor starting position). He ran 18th at Phoenix in March.
Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
