Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick – As long as Kevin Harvick can avoid trouble he’ll be a driver who you can be confident picking in the Richmond Toyota Owners 400. In terms of overall performance in 2014 Harvick has arguably been the strongest performer on a week to week basis. When you combine how well he’s performed with a historical good track he should be fantasy gold. Kevin Harvick is the defending champion of the spring race at Richmond. Last year he took advantage of how the end of the race played out and drove the 29 car to victory lane. In that race he only led 3 laps but he was in the front when it mattered. Also in that race he had the 5th best driver rating and a 9th place average running position. Last fall at Richmond he finished 11th but his car was better than that. The major turning point of the race came with 58 laps to go when a caution happened during the pit cycle. The timing of the caution burned him and is why he finished lower then he should of. Before he pitted prior to the caution he was running in 2nd hot on race leader Clint Bowyer’s heels. In terms of PROS Rankings I have him slotted in the #2 position. In 26 races at Richmond Harvick has 3 wins, 7 top fives and 16 top tens. Phoenix is the most similar track on the schedule and earlier this season at that venue he had a dominant performance. In that race he started in 13th, had a 2nd place average running position, led 224 laps and came up .1 short of scoring a perfect driver rating. The chassis Harvick is piloting this week is brand new. Currently he’s a 6/1 co-favorite to win. In practice he had a car that was consistently fast. In practice #1 he said, “We’re pretty close now”. If I were the competition I would be scared. His respective ten lap averages ranked as the 12th and 6th best. On Saturday he’ll start in 5th.

[box type=”tick”]Don’t be a fantasy NASCAR pretender, become a contender and get the ifantasyrace advantage. Join now and read all of our full exclusive content[/box]

2) Clint Bowyer – Remember him from last fall? I’m sure you remember the spin but do you remember his performance? I’ll give you a clue, he was pretty good. He was so good in fact I gave him the #1 position in the PROS Rankings. The main aspect of his performance that you should remember is that he was the leader of the race going into a round of green flag pit stops that were interrupted by a caution with 58 laps to go. He was a driver who got burned by that caution and it put him back in the running order. When the checkered flag waved following his final tanking he finished 25th. Also in that race he led 72 laps, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In spring 2013 at Richmond Bowyer had a strong car. He had a 4th place average running position, led 113 laps, finished 2nd and earned the 2nd best driver rating. At the time of the final caution he was running in 4th. In fall 2012 Bowyer earned his 2nd of two victories here. In spring 2012 he finished 7th. One of Bowyer’s greatest strengths at Richmond is the consistency he brings to the table. In 81% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top 12. At Phoenix earlier this year the 15 car seemed off. He finished 13th and had a 16th place average running position. In practice Clint Bowyer appeared to have a very good car. He felt so confident about his car in Happy Hour he actually called it a day 25 minutes early. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 8th best. In practice #1 which I view as the more important session his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Saturday he’ll start in 3rd. If Clint Bowyer can avoid bad luck he’s a driver who’ll be in the mix at the end for the win in the Toyota Owners 400.

Recommended Reading – Richmond Speed Cheat Sheet, Practice Notes, Practice Speeds, Starting Lineup, PROS Rankings

3) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been a solid performer on a week to week basis this season. Of the 8 races he’s finished in the top five 5 times. No other driver has finished that high on such a regular basis in 2014. One of his top five finishes came at Phoenix. I consider that track to essentially be a reverse Richmond. At Phoenix in March he finished 2nd, had a 3rd place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. On Saturday night he’ll be driving that very chassis once again. In 2013 at Phoenix he had results of 4th and 5th. Last fall at Richmond Dale Earnhardt Jr. drove a very conservative race. He never pressed the issue or drove hard because of his Chase situation. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th and had a 14th place average running position. In spring 2013 at Richmond he finished 10th. That finish is likely a little better than how good he truly was. In that race his average running position was 16th. If it wasn’t for the late caution in the closing laps he was a lock to finish 13th. In 2012 Dale Earnhardt Jr. performed well in both races. In the fall race he won the pole, led 67 laps and was a solid contender for the win. That race didn’t play out traditionally and largely due to his fuel situation he finished 12th. In spring 2012 he finished 2nd and earned the 8th best driver rating. On Saturday Junior will start in 13th. In practice #1 his ten lap average ranked as the quickest. In practice he really focused on getting his car to be good over long runs. His odds to win are 15/1.