Talladega Aaron’s 499 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Restrictor plates haven’t been bad venues for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Last year in his rookie campaign he scored the third most points on this track type and had a 13.5 average finish. Last fall at Talladega he had one of the best races of his Sprint Cup career. He started in 21^st, had a 10^th place average running position, earned the 4^th best driver rating and finished 3^rd. On the last lap of the race he was the driver who spun Austin Dillon. In the spring race at Talladega last season he also performed well. If the race would’ve been rain shortened he would’ve finished 2nd to Carl Edwards who passed him right before the rain fell. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th and earned the 11th best driver rating. In the race he performed slightly better than his result. In the last quarter of the race he was a driver who got a speeding penalty which put him back in the pack. In the Daytona 500 earlier this year Ricky Stenhouse Jr. drove around mid-pack for the much of the race but when it was time to go he was near the front. His result from the Great American race was 7^th. His 2013 Daytona results were 11th and 12th. (Yahoo B Driver)

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David Gilliland – Look for David Gilliland to go all out in the Aaron’s 499. With the new Chase rules winning this race would be his “Golden Ticket” into the Chase. Much like his teammate David Ragan restrictor plate racing has been a historical strength of his. Recently at Talladega Gilliland has been a strong consistent performer. Since 2011 he has three top tens and only one result outside the top fifteen. Last season he had a great year here. He was one of just three drivers who swept the top ten. In the spring race on the last lap he teamed up with David Ragan and they drove to a 1-2 finish. In the fall he finished 7th. At Daytona this year he finished 29 laps down in 36th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Recommended Reading – Talladega Top Tier Elite, Talladega Front Runner Rankings, Yahoo C List Preview, Who will win at Talladega, Talladega Fall 2013 Scouting Report, Talladega Spring 2013 Scouting Report

Denny Hamlin – At Daytona earlier this year Denny Hamlin arguably had the best car. He won the Shootout, his Duel race and finished 2nd in the Great American Race. Also in the Daytona 500 he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 9th place average running position and led 16 laps. For much of the race I thought he drove conservatively. He wasn’t able to do his slicing and dicing moves he did in the preliminary races because he had communication issues with his spotter. At the end of the race though he went all out and made a serious charge for the lead only to come up one position short. Talladega has proven to be an unfriendly track for Denny Hamlin. He’s finished in the top ten 31% percent of the time and outside the top twenty 62% percent of the time. When you do the math you’ll realize that leaves little room for a middle ground performance. In my opinion his risk level is unbearable especially if you’re in an allocation league. Last spring at Talladega Denny Hamlin drove until the first caution and then he climbed out of his car. In the fall he completed 142 laps until his engine went south which led to a 38th place finish. (Yahoo B Driver)

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