Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Aaron’s 499

The Wildcard Weekend

This weekend at Talladega Superspeedway we have the second of four restrictor plate races this season. These events are generally wildcard races and literally any driver could find themselves in position to win at the end. So how do you approach the Aaron’s 499 from a fantasy perspective? I have three groups (or “strategies”) that could be implemented: those who have momentum, those who are better than others at plate tracks (“the favorites“), and off-sequence choices. As far as which strategy that I recommend, it really depends on what kind of league you are in, and where you’re at in the standings. With allocation leagues, I’d recommend an off-sequence strategy, as well as in other leagues if you’re mid-pack. If you’re in the lower percentile of standings, I would ride this race out and go with the favorites, and if you’re leading I would lean more toward momentum. A combination of the three wouldn’t be bad either. Whichever strategy you end up choosing, I’d like to wish everyone good luck this week, and one last word of advice: don’t stress too much with making your rosters this weekend! Just put one in and hope for the best.

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Drivers With Momentum:

Matt Kenseth – This #20 team is now on a five-race streak of finishes between 4th and 7th, and Kenseth’s worst finish of the 2014 season (thus far) has been his 13th-place effort at Bristol. Matt was the master at these plate tracks in 2012 and will be looking to re-gain his throne here on Sunday in the Aaron’s 499. The #20 Toyota ended up 6th in the season-opening Daytona, and Kenseth’s average driver rating of 119.4 over the last four Talladega races is by and far the best in the series–and he’s the only driver to break the 100.0 barrier. Historically, Matt is better at Daytona, but he does have three top 10s in the last four races here at Talladega, one of which was his first victory at the track (fall 2012). In my personal opinion the #20 Toyota will be one of the most solid and reliable picks for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499.

Jeff Gordon – Gordon is a six-time winner at Talladega and is on an absolute tear this season. I almost don’t want to see him win for a while because the #24 has been so valuable in fantasy this season and if they start testing that value will deteriorate. We all know that the Hendrick Chevrolets will be strong on Sunday and Gordon knows how to position himself in these plate races. He finished 4th at Daytona back in February and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him inside the top 5 when the checkered flag waves this Sunday either. Momentum-wise I don’t think you can make a case for any other driver that has been so consistently strong all season long. Also, five of the last seven Talladega Cup races have ended with Gordon finishing 14th or better. The only knock I have on him is that he tends to ride around in the back of the pack, and I’m personally not a fan of that. But, hey, as long as he gets the finish, I really don’t care how he does it.

Kyle Busch – Rowdy’s career average finish of 21.9 is going to scare many fantasy racers away this weekend, but I say give the guy a chance. When it comes to momentum, only two drivers–Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon–have a better average finish than Busch over the last six Sprint Cup races, and Kyle’s three top 5s in the last four Talladega races in tops in the series. He likes to get to the front and stay there, and I like that aggressiveness out of my fantasy drivers at tracks like ‘Dega. Busch has led at least one lap in all but two of the last 15 Cup races here and did get to victory lane back in 2008. It’s hard to go against a team that hasn’t finished worse than 6th in a month. Oh, and this is Kyle’s birthday weekend, and it always seems like good things happen to drivers around milestones like that. I guess we’ll find out…

Joey Logano – This #22 team is coming off their second win of the 2014 season and we all know by now that Joey Logano has had fast cars all season long. So, he’s got momentum and he has a strong engine for the race on Sunday. What’s not to like? Well, for starters, his record at Talladega. Logano entered the Cup series in 2009 (it’s really been that long already?) and posted top 10 finishes in each of the first two races here at ‘Dega. He tacked on a third and fourth in the fall race of 2010 and spring race of 2011, making it 4-for-5 for Joey at this particular track. In his five starts here since, however, Logano hasn’t been able to even crack the top 15 and has had two results outside of the top 30. He’s been a little better at Daytona but still has just three top 10s in eleven career starts down there. Taking all of that into account, however, I’m still completely on board with taking the #22 this weekend. His history here may be disappointing but you have to take into account momentum and the fact that this is the season that he’s truly emerging as a championship contender. Also, the Penske Fords seem to have an edge on the field. I’m sold and Logano will be on a lot of my rosters this weekend, although I wouldn’t use him in allocation leagues. For what it’s worth he had the 4th-best driver rating in this year’s Daytona 500.

Kyle Larson – Redemption will be the name of the game for rookie Kyle Larson this weekend, as his first attempt at a restrictor plate Cup race back in February turned out to be possibly the worst race ever. The early spin at Richmond last weekend left many fantasy owners with a disappointing finish out of the #42 team but we can’t forget the fact that this is one of the hotter teams in the garage and a couple of weeks ago a lot of experts were talking about when Larson would win, as in this season. When you look back at the Nationwide plate races in 2013, Larson finished 13th and 6th at Daytona while ending up 38th at Talladega. He has a good plate teammate in Jamie McMurray, but there’s definitely some risk in taking Larson this week. In allocation leagues like Yahoo! it’s an absolute no, no matter what.

The Favorites:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – There’s no reason that NASCAR’s pied piper shouldn’t be at or near the top of everybody’s fantasy lists this weekend at Talladega; the #88 team picked up the victory back at Daytona in February and Earnhardt is always the name most associated with restrictor plate racing. At 14.6, Junior owns the third-best average finish at ‘Dega (among those with more than 2 starts) and has gotten to victory lane here an amazing five times–including four in a row from 2001 to 2003–in 28 attempts. Unfortunately, Dale hasn’t been able to get back to the winner’s circle at Talladega since 2004 but that could easily change this weekend. He finished 2nd here last fall and has had a fast race car for pretty much every week of the 2014 season. If he can stay out of trouble, Earnhardt, Jr. should be a contender for the win in this year’s Aaron’s 499.

Kevin Harvick – There’s no doubt in my mind that Rodney Childers will once again have a super fast race car for Kevin Harvick to work with on Sunday in the Aaron’s 499. When it comes to testing, I don’t really see how teams can learn a whole lot here at Talladega, so as far as teams with a win experimenting with setups on Sunday, I just don’t see it happening, although I’ve been wrong before. Harvick’s name usually comes up at plate tracks because of the 2010 season where he never finished worse than 7th in the four superspeedway events. He has since found a little success at Daytona but has been able to put up just one top 10 at Talladega since that amazing run four years ago. Harvick likes to hang out in the back of the pack until the end, and personally I don’t like that. However, it makes the #4 a little bit of a safer option this weekend.

Brad Keselowski – Among drivers with more than two starts, Brad Keselowski actually owns the series-best average finish here at Talladega (14.2). Remember, this was the track where BK really made an initial name for himself in the Cup series when he took out Carl Edwards to win back in 2009. In the nine races since, Brad has collected another victory (in 2012) along with 4 additional top 10s and a 15th-place in this event last season. The Penske Fords seem to have somewhat of a power advantage under the hood this season so that’s just another positive in picking the Blue Deuce on Sunday. Keselowski ended up 3rd at Daytona back in February after starting 33rd.

Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is in a bit of a decline and needs something to get back on track. At this point I think the only way he gets into the 2014 Chase is if he wins on one of the “special” tracks–Daytona, Talladega, Watkins Glen, or Sonoma. I’m not sure what’s up with this team but I’ve almost given up on Clint from a fantasy perspective. That being said, ‘Dega has always been one of his best tracks, and Bowyer’s six top 10s in the last eight events here are proof to that. The Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas aren’t as strong as the RCR cars he used to drive, however, so I think Clint is relying more on talent than he used to when we come to Talladega, and this bumps him down a few spots in my book. When you take into account the bad luck that this team has been having so far this season, there’s not much incentive to pick the #15 on Sunday, but don’t be surprised to see Bowyer’s name in the top 10 when the checkered flag waves on the Aaron’s 499 either.

David Ragan – I’m done calling this guy a “sleeper” or anything of the like when we come to plate tracks. David Ragan is an excellent plate racer, and his win here at Talladega last season proved that. Front Row Motorsports isn’t that great of an operation, but they put out strong race cars when we have an even playing field (like at Daytona and Talladega). Since Ragan joined this organization in 2012, we have ran four races at ‘Dega, and his finishes have been as follows: 7th, 4th, 1st, and 6th. Obviously this streak is going to end at some point, but he’s an excellent option in allocation leagues and most salary cap leagues, so why not take a shot with the #34 Ford on Sunday? His teammate (David Gilliland) wouldn’t be a bad pick either, as he finished 2nd and 7th here last season and is on a four-race streak of top 15s at Talladega. As of late Thursday night, just 9% and 2% of Yahoo! teams had Ragan and Gilliland on their rosters, respectively.

Off-Sequence Picks:

Overrated Drivers:

My Overall Top 30 Predictions: