Kansas 5-Hour Energy 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Kevin Harvick – Last fall at Kansas Kevin Harvick put on a clinic and had a dominating performance. He started on the pole, finished 1st, earned the best driver rating and led 138 laps. One notable aspect about his performance is that while he was out front Jimmie Johnson is the only driver who really had anything for him. One key advantage Harvick has this weekend that could lead to a repeat performance is that he’s one of the drivers who participated in the Goodyear tire test at Kansas earlier this year. Don’t overlook that aspect about him this weekend. In spring 2013 at Kansas Harvick had a good race. He finished 12th but in my opinion his car was better than that. What happened is that late in the event he elected to pit for four tires and almost everybody else did two. In the race he earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In the first race on the new surface he finished 11th but it’s important to note he had a 16th place average running position and earned the 18th best driver rating. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Kevin Harvick has been strong but he’s had problems in every race. At Las Vegas he was a contender for the win but he had problems under his hood. At Auto Club Speedway he was top five good but had multiple cut tires. At Texas he also looked to be top five good but he had problems early. The bottom line about Harvick is that if he can avoid problems he’ll be really good. Currently Kevin Harvick is a 5/1 favorite to win. This week he’ll be piloting the chassis he won with at Phoenix in March. In practice #1 Kevin Harvick had the 2nd best 10 lap average. On Saturday night Harvick will start on the pole. In both races last season this race was won from that starting position.

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2. Joey Logano – Joey Logano is a driver who you should feel confident about picking at Kansas in the 5-Hour Energy 400. There’s been two races on 1.5 mile tracks this season and on them he’s arguably been the strongest performer. Between the two races he has the best average finish (2.5), led the most laps (152), has the second best driver rating and the third best average running position (7.0). Also between the two races he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top five twice. Texas is the last 1.5 mile track visited and in that race he was impressive and took home the trophy. At Texas he led 108 laps, earned the best driver rating and was only truly challenged by teammate Brad Keselowski at the end. At Las Vegas earlier this season he finished 4th. Last fall at Kansas Joey Logano was a strong performer. His PROS Rankings for the event ranked as the 3rd best. He also had a 6th place average running position, led 33 laps, finished 4th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. The strength of his car in the race was being good over long runs. At one point because of pit strategy he got shuffled from the lead to 13th but he bounced back and drove up through the field. At Kansas last spring his crew chief was suspended and he didn’t perform well. On Saturday night Logano will start in 2nd in a new chassis. His odds to win are listed at 10/1. In practice Joey Logano’s car was fast but he was also on the splitter.

Recommended Reading – Practice Notes, Practice Speeds, Kansas Qualifying Results, PROS Rankings, Vote for who will win at Kansas, Fall 2013 Scouting Report, Spring 2013 Scouting Report

3. Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is always a good fantasy NASCAR pick at Kansas. Although the series has only raced on the new surface at Kansas three times Johnson currently has ten consecutive top ten finishes. In the races specifically on the new surface he’s been a strong performer. On the new configuration he has the 2nd best driver rating, 2nd best average finish (6.0), and ran the 2nd most fastest laps. In fall 2013 Johnson performed well and earned the 2nd best PROS Rankings. In that race his strength was being good over long runs and handling good in traffic. In the event he earned the 4th best driver rating and finished 6th. His stats line is somewhat misleading because his race wasn’t incident free. Around lap 87 there was a caution during the pit cycle and that was a setback for him. At the time of the yellow he was committed to coming down pit road but with how it fell he couldn’t pit. Essentially what happened is he served a drive through penalty and blended back in traffic at 17th. Before he was committed to coming down pit road he was the leader. Another notable aspect about his performance is that he had trouble with restarts on a few occasions. In spring 2013 Johnson started mid pack (21st) but by lap 60 he was already in the top ten. In that event he led 9 laps, had a 9th place average running position, finished 3rd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In the first race on the new Kansas surface Johnson arguably had the best car. That race was far from incident free for him. What happened is that while he was leading a caution came out during the pit cycle after he just completed his stop and as a result he was shuffled back to mid pack. Then while he was back in traffic he backed the #48 car into the wall hard which made the car a few inches shorter. The battle tested #48 crew was undeterred by what just happened and they rallied to a 9th place finish in a car that would’ve sent lesser opponents straight to the hauler. Also in that event he led 44 laps. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Johnson has been a strong performer from what we’ve seen from him on the track. At Las Vegas he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 6th and led 34 laps. At Auto Club Speedway he was a near lock to go to victory lane before his tire went down in the closing laps On Saturday night he’ll be racing that very chassis once again. At Texas we never really had a chance to see how good he was. He got early damage from when Earnhardt Jr. kicked up the dirt and then he had a flat tire which is what really doomed his day. His odds to win are listed at 6/1. Johnson will start in 14th.