Kansas Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – 5-Hour Energy 400
Not Your Average Rookie
This week we’re night racing for the first time ever at Kansas Speedway, and that just adds a minor variable to an otherwise predictable race–well, at least more predictable than last week at Talladega. Kansas is a fairly new 1.5-mile race track, so we’ll go ahead and look back at the Las Vegas and Texas races from earlier this season as both of those venues are also 1.5 miles in length. There were two practices on Friday followed by qualifying. For practice session results, click here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out Ryan’s notes on each practice: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Please note that most teams used Happy Hour to test their qualifying setups, and it was Kevin Harvick who won the pole for Saturday night’s 5-Hour Energy 400. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The 5-Hour Energy 400:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Matt Kenseth – Starts 28th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
With the #20 team coming off of their worst finish (by far) of the 2014 season, I’m looking for them to bounce back in a big way here at Kansas on Saturday night. Statistically, Kenseth has pretty much been in a league of his own here at Kansas over the last two seasons; Matt’s average driver rating of 125.8 over the last four races here is a full 10 points better than Jimmie Johnson’s 115.5, and no driver has led more laps over that span than the 2013 series wins leader (264 laps). Kenseth has had a few rough outings here at Kansas–four finishes of 30th or worse–but he’s been to victory lane in two of the last three events at this track and has finished 7th or better in six of the last seven. The lone exception? His 11th-place result in the fall race last year. Only Jimmie Johnson (562) has led more laps in his career here than Matt Kenseth (500) although both are two-time winners here at Kansas Speedway and have six top 5 finishes each over 15 and 16 career starts, respectively. I expect Kenseth to potentially be a top 10 threat by the end of the 5-Hour Energy 400 on Saturday night but I don’t think he’ll be challenging for his first victory of the 2014 season. Like the other Gibbs Toyotas, Kenseth struggled in Practice #1, ending up 28th on the board, and in Happy Hour he was 28th in Happy Hour as well. We’ve seen this before and these guys always tend to race better than they practice/qualify, and it could benefit these Toyotas that the 5-Hour Energy 400 is being ran at night. Still, it’s hard to recommend any of the JGR cars with confidence on Saturday night.
12. Ryan Newman – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“The Rocketman” has been somewhat of an afterthought all season long, one of those drivers where, when the race is all said and done, he’s there in the top 15 (sometimes the top 10) and you realize that you didn’t really think of him going into the event. Back at Las Vegas, Newman ran 7th, and he ended up 16th at Texas. He hasn’t been great here at Kansas Speedway (zero top 10s since 2010) but Newman did end up 14th in this event last season after starting 9th. He does have one win here (back in 2003 with Penske) and the #31 team has been one of the most consistent above-average teams this season, as they haven’t finished worse than 20th since the season-opening Daytona 500–and still that was just a 22nd-place result. This weekend, Newman has looked like his normal self: in Practice #1 he was 12th-fastest, and in Happy Hour the #31 Chevrolet ranked 8th on the speed chart. This weekend he is running chassis no. 462, which is the same one he used to finish 20th with back at Fontana in March. A top 20 should be expected out of Newman on Saturday night, with a finish in the high teens possible if the #31 team can keep up with the track and the race.
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Here’s a nice start-save option. I’m expecting a solid top 15 finish out of Jamie McMurray and this #1 team on Saturday night. He owns a career average finish of 18.6 here at Kansas but Jamie hasn’t had a result worse than 16th here over the last two seasons (four races) and he actually posted a top 10 in this event one year ago. Not to mention the #1 Chevrolet was sporty in practice on Friday; McMurray was 15th-quickest in Practice #1 and wound up P15 in Happy Hour as well. McMurray ran 15th at Las Vegas earlier this year and ended up 17th at Texas last month. This team has only two top 10 finishes thus far in the 2014 season and it’s going to take a lot of luck for them to grab a third on Saturday night. If you’re looking at Jamie from a sleeper standpoint, I think he provides one of the best options this weekend, and he did finish 6th at Fontana this year.
14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
It takes a lot for me to give a thorough evaluation of Kasey Kahne for any race weekend, but Kansas Speedway has been one of his best tracks here as of late and I’m not going to ignore that. I’m also not about to look past the speed that this #5 Chevrolet has had this weekend. The Hendrick Chevrolets were some of the strongest in Practice #1 and Kahne led the way by ranking 5th on the speed chart. He was also one of the few who ran ten consecutive laps, and he ended up 3rd on that chart. In Happy Hour, the #5 was 16th on the speed chart in qualifying trim. Kasey finished 15th in last season’s fall event here at Kansas–his worst since the fall 2010 race–but before that he was riding a four-race streak of top 10s at this 1.5-mile race track. That’s good for a guy like Kasey. Very good. And with this team’s 8th-place run at Talladega last weekend, they’re quietly building some momentum–at least in my eyes. Three of the last four Cup races have ended with Kahne inside the top 15, and I think he has a very good shot at making it four of five on Saturday night. Also, he posted an 8th-place finish back at Vegas and ran 11th at Texas, which are both 1.5-mile tracks. This team brought a brand new chassis to the track this weekend.
15. Kyle Busch – Starts 24th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Everyone is writing off Kyle Busch as the “avoid” top tier fantasy driver this week, and for good reason: over his 13 career starts here at Kansas Speedway, Rowdy has posted just two top 10 finishes (a 7th-place effort in 2006 and a 10th in 2012) and averages a result of 23.3. However, are you really going to just glance over the driver who has scored the most points in Sprint Cup action over the last six races? Busch is far too talented to not eventually break through at this race track, and his string of three straight finishes outside of the top 30 here at Kansas aren’t exactly due to a lack of speed, as Kyle has qualified inside the top 5 for two of those three races. Early this weekend, however, it was apparent that the #18 team was struggling to find speed. Busch ranked 29th in Practice #1 and improved a little bit to 22nd-fastest in Happy Hour. Looking back the Las Vegas race in March, the #18 Toyota was P1 for 52 of the 267 laps and Busch had the 6th-best driver rating during that race despite finishing 11th. At Texas he finished 3rd. History definitely isn’t on Rowdy’s side this weekend, but that could work to your advantage if your competition avoids him and you take him the race he finally finishes top 5 at Kansas. However, I don’t see the latter happening so I’m not sure it’s worth the risk.
Just Missed The Top 15:
A lot of people had high hopes for Paul Menard (ranked 16th) coming into this weekend, but on Friday those were slashed a little bit because, like the JGR cars, the Chevrolets at Richard Childress Racing were all running a little slow in practice. In the first session, Menard ended up 19th on the speed chart, and in Happy Hour he was 27th-quickest. I still have a little bit of hope for the #27 team on Saturday night, though. Menard is on a three-race streak of top 10s here at Kansas Speedway and has ended up 12th or better in five of his last seven starts here. Additionally, the #27 ran 3rd back at Las Vegas and ended up 9th at Texas. I have Tony Stewart ranked 17th in the #14 Chevrolet. There really hasn’t been a week this season in which he has blown me away in practice, and there’s only been a few races that he’s ran better than expected on race day. That’s not the kind of uncertainty you want out of a guy like Smoke. He qualified solidly inside the top 10 and does have four top 10 finishes in his last seven starts here at Kansas (and only one result worse than 15th over that span). I would have the #14 higher in my rankings but they really struggled in Practice #1, which was when all teams worked on race runs. Aric Almirola provides an excellent sleeper option this week and he actually posted top 10 finishes in both races here last season. That’s not even taking into account the fact that he was 2nd-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and qualified 12th for this year’s 5-Hour Energy 400. This team ran 12th at Texas and has ended up 13th or better in three of the last five Sprint Cup races. I’ll take that kind of effort out of a guy like Almirola any day of the week. In 19th I have Brian Vickers, who has a whole bunch of momentum on his side and actually has the 5th-best average finish in the Sprint Cup series over the last six races. He ran 13th at Las Vegas and ended up 4th at Texas, which gave me a lot of hope for the #55 this weekend. However, Vickers really didn’t show much speed off the truck on Friday, and although he qualified 15th, I don’t see him cracking the top 10. He also finished 32nd and 31st in the two races here last season and hasn’t posted a top 10 finish in Cup action at Kansas since the 2006 season. Ryan Blaney (ranked 20th) is making his first career Sprint Cup start here at Kansas on Saturday in the #12 for Penske Racing, and although I am optimistic that this team can put together a good run, nothing is guaranteed by any means. Also, will Penske use this car as an experimental thing, as we come back here in the Chase? Who knows. What I do know is that this youngster finished 3rd in the truck race here last season and showed a little bit of speed in practice on Friday, winding up 17th in both practice sessions. Sam Hornish, Jr. ran the #12 here at Kansas last season and qualified 4th before ultimately finishing 37th (I don’t remember what happened to him and can’t find a lap-by-lap report). Finally, I want nothing to do with Denny Hamlin this weekend (ranked 21st). He hasn’t shown any speed whatsoever–32nd and 38th on the two practice speed charts–and with a win in their pocket that opens up the door for Darian Grubb to make even more stupid (“gutsy”) calls during races. I’m all for rolling the dice, but there has to be some kind of control there. Hamlin does have three top 5 finishes here at Kansas (including a win in 2012) but every other one of his eleven career starts ended with him outside the top 10. I don’t feel like putting a “boom or bust” driver on my rosters this week, and this is still the same guy who only has one top 10 on tracks other than restrictor plate superspeedways in 2014.
On a side note, I want to like Casey Mears this weekend, I really do. He’s coming off that great 14th-place finish at Talladega, and has finished 19th or better in each of the last three Cup races, with the two other venues being Darlington and Richmond. And this #13 team is much improved this season, presumably due to a stronger engine package and a switch to Chevrolet. However, Mears just doesn’t really fit as a pick in many leagues. In all of the games that I play, I can confidently put him on my roster in one of them, and he’s there most weeks. However, in popular games like Yahoo! or NASCAR.com, it’s just not smart to take Casey. The good news this weekend is that he was 11th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and 26th on the Happy Hour (qualifying) speed chart. However, he finished 28th at both Las Vegas and Texas this season, which tempers my sleeper expectations a bit.
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**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
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**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
