The Regression of Jimmie Johnson in 2014
We are now eleven races into the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, and thus far it has been a great year, with eight different race winners and a Rookie of the Year battle that is actually competitive–a youth movement of sorts that this sport desperately needs. Heck, even Danica got a legitimate top 10 finish at Kansas last weekend. However, perhaps the most surprising occurrence has been what hasn’t happened; Matt Kenseth, who went to victory lane seven times in 2013, has been shut out through these first eleven events, as has six-time series champion Jimmie Johnson. The former is still sitting comfortably in 2nd in the points standings, but Johnson finds himself 54 points out of 1st and, statistically, off to his worst season start since 2003.
Jimmie Johnson entered into NASCAR’s top series full time back in 2002, and put together quite an impressive rookie campaign: 3 wins, an average finish of 13.5, and a 5th-place points standings result. And he hasn’t looked back since. As many well know, since 2002, Jimmie went on to win six series championships–including five straight from 2006 to 2010–and has never finished worse than 6th in a season-ending points standings. Flash-foward to this season, however, and that mark may be in jeopardy. Johnson is on pace to set a career low in not only wins, but also top 5s, top 10s, as well as average finish. As stated before, this season he’s off to the worst start since his sophomore year, and the chart below details that.
| Year | 2014 | 2013** | 2012 | 2011 | 2010** | 2009** |
| Avg Finish | 14.0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 13.7 |
| Wins | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Top 5s | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Top 10s | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Year | 2008** | 2007** | 2006** | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| Avg Finish | 13.8 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 14.2 |
| Wins | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Top 5s | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Top 10s | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Obviously he’s not quite off to as bad of a start as he was eleven years ago, but it is close. It is also noteworthy that this is the longest that Jimmie Johnson has went without a win to start a season in over a decade. That being said, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone that thinks he won’t notch a victory (and Chase berth) before the “regular season finale” at Richmond (race #26) in September, but it is interesting to think about whether or not the competition has finally caught up to the one driver that has pretty much dominated the sport since joining the series.
Over the past few seasons, NASCAR has had a few new faces emerging as legitimate championship contenders. Brad Keselowski took home the trophy in 2012, and his new Penske Racing teammate, Joey Logano, is finally living up to the hype that followed him
when he made the jump from Nationwide to Sprint Cup, and that progress started last year when he established himself as one of the best intermediate track drivers on the circuit. With two wins already under his belt and a Chase filled with cookie cutter race tracks, don’t be surprised if we’re still talking a lot about Joey Logano come October. Other than the competition progressing, one could possibly point to the other organizations “catching up” to Hendrick Motorsports as a possible reason for Jimmie Johnson’s struggles, but that theory won’t get you far.
If current trends continue, Jeff Gordon’s 2014 average finish (currently 9.2) will be his best since the 2007 season when he finished 2nd in points. He already has eight top 10 finishes this year, which is noteworthy because he hasn’t been able to post more than eighteen in a season since 2009. Also, with a win in his pocket, he’s already locked into NASCAR’s playoff system, The Chase. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came out firing this year and won the season-opening Daytona 500, and is currently on pace to set a career-high in top 5 finishes for a season, as he has already notched six of them through the first eleven races. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Junior has averaged 6.5 top 5 finishes per season, so that tells you how good of a start he’s off to in 2014.
All in all, the “struggles” that Jimmie Johnson is currently experiencing are really not that bad. For most other drivers, six top 10s and a 7th-place points standings position through the first eleven races would be a great start to the season–but Jimmie Johnson isn’t like most other drivers. We’re talking about the best driver in the sport right now, with some consideration of being the best of all time (at least top 5). When you see drivers like Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano doing what Jimmie should be doing–winning multiple races early in the year–you have to wonder whether or not old “Six Time” is finally losing his edge, but I’m sure his upcoming (and long overdue) visit back to victory lane will have us forgetting about any regression that this #48 team may be experiencing in 2014. The next three tracks that the Sprint Cup drivers will visit are Charlotte, Dover, and Pocono, venues where Johnson has collectively won at 17 times in his career. I sure wouldn’t bet against him.
