Charlotte Coca Cola 600 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick has won two out of the last three Charlotte Coca Cola 600’s and he’s the favorite heading into the event. His odds to win are listed at a series best 5/1. He didn’t have the best car in either of his Charlotte wins but he was able to take advantage of how the circumstances played out at the end. In his win at Charlotte last spring he took advantage of the tire situation at the end. With about 20 laps to go there was a caution. Kahne who dominated the race took two and everyone else took four. Kahne struggled on restarts and that’s how Harvick got around him for the win. Harvick’s PROS Rankings for that event ranked as the 5th best. In his 2011 win he took advantage of the fuel situation at the end. When Junior sputtered on the last lap Harvick got around him and went to victory lane. Last fall he finished 6th and earned the 9th best driver rating. Over an extended period of time Harvick has been one of the best performers at Charlotte. Over the last eight races he has the best average finish (7.1), 5th best average running position (11.0) and the 6th best driver rating. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Harvick has been strong but he’s had problems in two out of the three races. In all three events he appeared to have a car that had top five potential. In the one race he didn’t have trouble he finished 2nd (Kansas). This week Harvick is using his Texas chassis. In that race he started in 3rd and took the lead on lap 25. Unfortunately shortly after that his engine blew up. One attribute I like about Harvick is his momentum. For much of the season he carried a high-level of risk but it appears to have subsided. In the last six races he has four top tens and five top elevens. Harvick will start in 11th on Sunday. In practice #2 which is the best simulation for night-time racing he was fast. His 10 lap average ranked as the 3rd best. In that session he did a 22 lap run and his crew chief said his lap times were good. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. The 4 car also has good balance which is important because of the changing track conditions. Following practice #1 Harvick was viewed as the garage area insiders favorite.

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2. Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson will start on the pole for the Charlotte Coca Cola 600. 12.7% of all Charlotte races have been won from that starting position. Historically the Coca Cola 600 has been a good event for Johnson but not recently. In typical recent Coca Cola 600’s he’s run well but had some type of problem. His last top ten in the longest race of the year was a 10th in 2007. In the six Coca Cola 600’s since his last top ten he’s earned the 6th best driver rating, had a 10th place average running position and a lowly 25th place average finish. In the 2013 Coca Cola 600 he likely had about a 6th place car but he came home with a 22nd place result. What happened is that there was a caution during a pit cycle and he got burned when the yellow flag came out. That trapped him back in the field and then with 58 laps to go he spun and got caught up in a multi-car wreck. In some of the other recent Coca Cola 600’s he’s also had good performances but had something happen to him in the closing laps such as an engine failure. Last fall at Charlotte Johnson was extremely strong. He earned the #1 PROS Rankings, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 130 laps and finished 4th. In his career at Charlotte he’s won six-times and has finished in the top five 48% percent of the time. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Johnson has shown strength but he seems to be missing something. This weekend Johnson is using his Texas chassis. At that venue this spring he got early damage when Junior went off roading and then shortly after that under green he had a flat tire that put him down a number of laps. Johnson’s odds to win are listed at 6/1. In practice #2 he had the 4th best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the best. That’s bad for the competition who struggle early.

Recommended Reading – Charlotte Predictions (Another post Happy Hour fantasy take on the race), Charlotte Practice Notes, Charlotte Practice Speeds, Charlotte Ten Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, PROS Rankings

3. Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne has had a quiet season but at Charlotte he’ll be looking to make some noise. Out of all 23 tracks on the circuit Charlotte easily ranks as his best venue. He has sixteen wins in the top series and a quarter of them came here (4). Also at Charlotte he’s tied with Matt Kenseth among active drivers for the most runner-up finishes (3). Since joining Hendrick Motor Sports Kahne has been extremely impressive here. In his four Hendrick races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps (395), has a 4.0 average running position and a 3.3 average finish. In his first Charlotte race in Hendrick equipment he went to victory lane. Last year at Charlotte Kahne was good enough to win both races. In the Coca Cola 600 he was beat on tire strategy at the end. In that event he finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 161 laps. Last fall at Charlotte he also finished 2nd. In that race he was also beaten on tire strategy because at the end he was on two new tires and nearly everyone else was on four. In that race he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 138 laps. He PROS Rankings for that event ranked as the 2nd best. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Kahne has been flying below the radar. In the three races on tracks of this length he’s scored the 3rd most points in the series. At the last 1.5 mile track visited he finished 3rd and said that he thinks his team found something performance wise there. This week Kahne will be piloting his Texas chassis that finished 11th in April. His odds to win are listed at 8/1. On Sunday Kasey Kahne will start in 3rd. In practice #2 Kahne had the 14^th best 10 lap average. He said that he has a good car but it needs to turn better in turn #3. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 10th best.