Charlotte Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Coca-Cola 600
First, First, First
We have 600 miles of Sunday night racing this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and although this is the second straight weekend of racing at this track, try your best to put the All-Star Race out of your mind. Yes, it’s difficult, but making your picks based on those results won’t help you any. Every team is on a different strategy in that race and it’s really not all that relatable to this weekend’s event. In some instances I may use it as a tiebreaker, but picking Jamie McMurray to win this weekend’s event probably won’t be a good choice. Jimmie Johnson won the pole for this year’s Coca Cola 600 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. There were two practice sessions on Saturday morning/afternoon, and the first one is more important, in my opinion (cooler track temperatures). The results for those can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out Ryan’s notes for each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. This is a very long race and we’re going to see comers and goers throughout the night, so keep that in mind. Track position should be pretty important, especially during the last restart.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Coca-Cola 600:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Brad Keselowski – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The All-Star Race last weekend was quite an accurate portrayal of the #2 team’s 2014 season thus far. Keselowski had a really fast car, especially on the long runs, but he couldn’t do much with it and had to settle for a subpar finish. The Blue Deuce hasn’t lacked speed this season, that’s for sure, and isn’t lacking it this weekend, either. BK qualified 2nd to Jimmie Johnson on Thursday afternoon and ran the 5th-fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. What was interesting was that the #2 Ford didn’t show up on the ten-lap average chart during that session, which is odd for this team and makes me think that they’re searching a little bit to find a comfortable race setup. Keselowski owns a 16.3 career average finish here at Charlotte and is the most recent race winner here (in terms of points-paying events). He has two top 5s to his name at this track but those are the only top 10s for Kez in his nine career starts here. This weekend it is very tempting to take the #2 because of the front row starting position, but then again you have to take into account the 20.8 average finish this team has posted over the last six Sprint Cup events. This week I’m looking to fill my rosters with solid, safe fantasy options, and Brad Keselowski just doesn’t fit the bill.
12. Kasey Kahne – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kasey Kahne is the most inconsistent and high-risk driver in the Cup garage, but when the series comes to Charlotte he, more often than not, has a good race. Obviously it’s going to be difficult to put the #5 on any rosters right now, but let’s not forget that this team has posted top 15 finishes in four of the last five points-paying races and that includes top 10s at both Talladega (8th) and Kansas (3rd). Kasey is also riding a five-race streak of top 10s here at Charlotte Motor Speedway, including 2nd-place results in both 2013 points-paying races here and a win in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #5 Chevrolet was middle-of-the-road, ranking 18th on the speed chart and 14th out of 17 in terms of ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, Kasey was a disappointing 25th on the speed chart, but it was in the heat of the afternoon so I’m not overly concerned. On Sunday night, Kahne will roll off the grid in 3rd, and if nothing goes wrong I do think that he has a shot at a top 10 finish when it’s all said and done. However, those extra 100 miles is just more time for Kasey or his team to screw up, so I wouldn’t get overly confident in picking the #5. This team brought chassis no. 5-863 to Charlotte this weekend, which is the same one Kasey ended up 11th with at Texas back in April. For what it’s worth, Kahne had a great car in the All-Star Race last weekend, running the high line before getting into the wall. Bottom line is this: he knows how to race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, now do you have the guts to pick him?
13. Clint Bowyer – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s hard not to be impressed by Clint Bowyer’s performance in The Showdown last weekend, but try not to get too caught up in that. Keep in mind that this #15 team still only has two top 10 finishes on the season in the races that really matter. Charlotte has been a decent track for Clint, with his win here in 2012 the shining point. Overall he has a 15.5 career average finish here over 16 starts, although he has just five top 10s to his credit and a measly two top 5s. He’s consistent, and sometimes that works out better than being super fast one week and a dud the next. Going into the Coca-Cola 600, Bowyer is a top 10 car despite the 5th-place starting position. He ranked 11th on the speed chart in Practice #2 and 2nd in ten-lap average behind Jeff Gordon. That’s encouraging, but you have to remember that this #15 team has had trouble putting together a full race all season, and we’re running 600 miles here at Charlotte on Sunday night. By the end of the race Bowyer will probably be a top 15 car with a shot at a top 10. He was 9th on the speed chart in Happy Hour on Saturday.
14. Ryan Newman – Starts 42nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I missed most of qualifying on Thursday evening so I’m not 100% sure what happened, but I’m assuming the #31 team really screwed something up because Ryan Newman will start Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 from the 42nd starting position. However, if I didn’t know where he qualified, I would think that “The Rocketman” would have a potential top 10 car based off of his practice times. This should make Newman a great pick in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live this weekend. The #31 was 8th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ranked 10th in Happy Hour. Newman’s record here at Charlotte isn’t great (19.1 average finish and top 10s in just 38.4% of his starts) but he has ended up 14th or better in four of the last five points-paying races here, three of which were also top 10s. Richard Childress Racing won last year’s Coca-Cola 600 with Kevin Harvick and placed all three cars in the top 13. Also, keep in mind that Joey Logano ended up 5th here last season after starting 31st, so it’s not impossible to make your way through the field. Newman is running a brand new chassis this weekend and has ended up 11th or better in three of the last four Cup races of the season.
15. Greg Biffle – Starts 24th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This may surprise you but Greg Biffle has the 2nd-best average finish (10.3) over the last six Sprint Cup races, second only to Kyle Busch’s 8.8. Charlotte isn’t a great track for The Biff but he posted top 5 finishes in both races here in 2012 and has ended up 16th or better in six of the last seven points-paying events. The Roush-Fenway Fords weren’t great in qualifying on Thursday, as they all ended up in the mid-20s, but they improved on Saturday. In Practice #2, Biffle was 14th-fastest on the speed chart and in Happy Hour he bumped up to 4th-fastest. He’s piloting chassis RK-908 this weekend, which is brand new, and I think Greg will end up around the top 15 before it’s all said and done on Sunday night. Not many teams are sticking out to me this weekend so pretty much 10th through 20th is a very close race and will depend on how the teams adjust. I like Biffle’s 6th-place run at Texas in April so that gives him a few bumps up in my rankings as well.
Just Missed The Top 15:
Ranked 16th I have Martin Truex, Jr., who has just one finish better than 17th over the last eight Sprint Cup races but that could change on Sunday night. He will roll off the grid in 15th when the green flag starts this year’s Coca-Cola 600, and showed some speed in each of the practice sessions on Saturday, winding up 3rd in Practice #2 and 8th in Happy Hour. However, it’s very hard to trust Truex right now and probably isn’t worth it to take him in many leagues this week. Furniture Row Racing always tends to run pretty well here at Charlotte, however… Danica Patrick (ranked 17th) should be turning heads again this weekend, as she qualified 4th and is coming off a legitimate top 10 finish at Kansas a couple of weeks ago–her best career race since joining the Sprint Cup Series. I don’t think we have another top 10 run coming from Danica on Sunday night but she did have the 5th-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and was 3rd-fastest on the speed chart in Happy Hour. In really deep leagues she’s almost definitely worth a shot this weekend. Ranked 18th this week is Brian Vickers and the #55 team, who have been pretty fast here as of late. Brian has just one finish worse than 14th over the last five Sprint Cup races and, although his record here at Charlotte isn’t great, he did run decent in the All-Star Race last weekend. I want to rank him higher but I just can’t. Vickers will start 16th on Sunday night. SLEEPER ALERT! Marcos Ambrose (ranked 19th) qualified 9th for this year’s Coca-Cola 600 and ended up finishing 10th in this event last season after starting 19th. With the way the Richard Petty Motorsports cars have been running, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see a solid run out of the #9 team on Sunday night. Then again, as with any sleeper, it’s very risky. Ambrose was 9th on the speed chart in Practice #2 and was 15th-fastest in Happy Hour. On a disappointing note, this team has under-performed at pretty much all of the intermediate races this season. Rounding out the top 20 is Trevor Bayne, who will be walking around with an extra pep in his step this weekend as it was announced that he will be racing full time in the Cup series starting in 2015. Expect the typical finish between 16th and 24th out of this kid on Sunday night, which is where he has ended up in each of his last three Cup starts here at Charlotte. Bayne qualified 14th on Thursday night but doesn’t have that good of a car in race trim, in my opinion. On a side note, A.J. Allmendinger could really surprise some people in the Coca-Cola 600. Not only does this team have five top 15s in the last seven Sprint Cup races, but A.J. also ran very well in The Showdown last Friday, finishing 2nd. He was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and will roll off the grid in 20th when the 2014 Coca-Cola 600 goes green.
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