Dover FedEx 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is a driver who you can confidently make your fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Dover FedEx 400. At Dover Johnson is an 8 time winner and has won in a third of his starts. His win last fall propelled him past Richard Petty and Bobby Allison on the All-Time win list so that should tell you just how good he is. Because of how strong Johnson has performed throughout his career he’s entering the FedEx 400 as a 9-2 favorite. Over the last ten races at Dover Johnson has been in a league of his own. In these 10 races he has the best driver rating, a 5.3 average finish, 2.8 average running position and has led 2,067 laps. Also over these 10 races he hasn’t had a driver rating worse than second. Last year at Dover Johnson had an awesome car in both races. In fall 2013 he was dominate. He earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 243 laps. Also in that race he had the best PROS Ranking. Last spring Johnson didn’t start off the race the best but after some Chad Knaus fine tuning he clearly had the best car in the field. In that race Johnson was a lock to go to victory lane but a late caution came out, he got beat off pit road and then he jumped the restart which cost him the win. His particular strength in that event was that he could hug the bottom of the track better than anyone. In fall 2012 he was a serious contender for the win but at the end he was forced to save fuel. In spring 2012 he went to victory lane and 289 laps. This weekend he’ll be piloting a new chassis and will start in fourth. In practice #2 Johnson had the second best ten lap average. In Happy Hour he also had the second best ten lap average.

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2. Kevin Harvick – Kevin will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the Dover FedEx 400. In practice his car was very strong and maintained speed throughout a run. In both practice sessions on Saturday Harvick had the best 10 lap average. One attribute you really have to like about Harvick is his momentum. Over the last five races he’s scored the most points in the series. Also over the last five races he has the best driver rating, a 4.6 average finish and has led 495 laps. Currently he has back to back 2nd place finishes and if you count the All-Star Race then it’s three. This season Harvick has performed well at the two tracks I consider the most similar to Dover. At Bristol he was a top five contender until he had fuel line problems and at Darlington he went to victory lane. In the FedEx 400 he’ll be driving his Bristol chassis. Recently at Dover Harvick has been strong. In five out of the last six races he’s finished in the top ten. Over these six races he has the 3rd best average finish (8.2), 4th best average running position (9.5) and the 5th best driver rating. Last fall at Dover Harvick ran in the low double digits for much of the race but in the last quarter he got up on the wheel and willed his car to a 6th place finish. In spring 2013 he had a strong showing and finished 8th with a 7th place average running position. In fall 2012 it looked like he had a strong car but he got burned by an early caution during the pit cycle. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th. In spring 2012 he had one of the fastest cars. In that race he started in sixth, drove up to 3rd, had a slow pit stop around the midpoint but rebounded and finished second passing everyone but Jimmie Johnson. His odds to win are currently listed as the second best at 5-1. On Sunday Harvick will start in 8^th.

Recommended Reading – Dover Post Happy Hour Predictions (another post Happy Hour take on the race), Dover Happy Hour Notes, Dover Happy Hour Speeds, Dover Practice #2 Notes, Dover Practice #2 Speeds, Dover Qualifying Results, Dover Pit Stall Selections, Who will win the Dover FedEx 400, Dover Speed Cheat Sheet

3. Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is a driver who’s consistently been one of Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competitors at the Monster Mile. He’s a two-time winner and as long as he avoids trouble he’s a lock for a top 7 finish. In 67% percent of his races he’s finished within that mark. Last fall Kyle Busch had a very strong car. He finished 5th, had a 5th place average running position and led 30 laps. In spring 2013 he was also very fast. In that race he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (150), had the best average running position (3rd) and finished 4th. In the race his car was at its best early in the event. In the last segment of the race he didn’t appear as strong. In fall 2012 he was dominant. He led 302 laps, had the best driver rating, had a 1st place average running position but he had to pit for fuel within the last 10 laps and as a result he finished 7th. In spring 2012 he was on his way to a top five finish but his engine blew up. One attribute you have to like about Kyle Busch this week is his momentum. In the last 8 races this season he’s scored the most points in the series, has a 7.9 average result and is the only driver who’s finished in the top fifteen every race. On Sunday Kyle Busch will start in 2nd. This has been won from that starting position 17% percent of the time. In practice his car was quick. In practice #2 he had the 5^th best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour he ranked down the speed charts but I wouldn’t be concerned. So far this weekend Kyle Busch is 2 for 2 and on Sunday he’ll be going for the weekend sweep. Don’t underestimate the value of all his extra track time. I’m sure he’s learned something to use to his advantage.