Pocono 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick – Each week Kevin Harvick arguably has the fastest car but the question pertaining to him is, can he avoid trouble? I don’t have a crystal ball and as they say, “that’s why they run the races”. In the Pocono 400 I expect him to be very competitive. In practice he had a quick car that was fast over long runs. In practice #2 he had the best 10 lap average. Another advantage he has this week is that he’s starting up front in 4th. Recently Hendrick horse powered cars have dominated this venue. The last three wins all came from the Hendrick camp. Although Stewart-Haas Racing isn’t formally part of Hendrick I don’t think the drivers and teams know that. Since the Pocono repave Tony Stewart has the best average finish and former Stewart-Haas Racing employee Ryan Newman has the second best average finish so there’s no doubt SHR has mastered the “Tricky Triangle”. Last August at Pocono Kevin Harvick wasn’t competitive. He started in 14th, had a 16th place average running position and finished 17th. In June of last season he had a better performance. His 9th place finish is a little misleading because he was running around the top five but during a round of pit stops he got a pit road penalty. That dropped him all the way back to the mid-twenties with less than half the race remaining. In the final 40 laps Kevin Harvick really got on the wheel. He was back in 25th but rallied up to a 9th place finish. If he didn’t get that pit road penalty he was a lock for a top five finish. Over the last nine Pocono races Harvick has a 10.6 average finish. The Las Vegas odds makers like Harvick this week. His odds to win are listed as the second best at 6-1. The chassis he’ll be driving went to victory lane at Darlington and led 238 laps.

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2. Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is a driver who you can confidently pick to win the Pocono 400. He’s entering the race with lots of momentum off his back to back wins. When Johnson has momentum he can be an unbeatable dominant force. On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be starting in 20^th. I would urge you not to overreact about that because he has a good car and we’re talking about a six-time champion. In the last three races at the “Tricky Triangle” Johnson has been ranked #1 in the PROS Rankings. Last August he likely had the best car but his race wasn’t incident free. He started on the pole, led 43 laps and finished 13th. His result last August gets an asterisk mark because while he was leading he had a tire go down on exit of a turn and he slapped the wall hard. In June last season he had a dominant performance. He started on the pole, finished first, earned the best driver rating and led 80% percent of the race. In August 2012 he was a near lock to go to victory lane but during a late restart while he was leading he had contact with Kenseth and spun. Since August 2007 he has a 6.8 average finish, 8.2 average running position, led 458 laps and hasn’t finished worse than 14th. In Happy Hour Chad Knaus told Jimmie Johnson the 48 car was where it needed to be on the stop watch. The odds makers certainly like him because he’s a 5-1 favorite. The chassis he’s using was raced at Darlington and finished 3rd.

Recommended Reading: Pocono Post Practice Predictions (another post Happy Hour take), Pocono Speed Cheat Sheet, Pocono Happy Hour Speeds, Pocono Happy Hour Notes, Pocono Practice #2 Speeds, Pocono Practice #2 Notes

3. Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon is a driver who you can’t count out in the Pocono 400. At the Tricky Triangle he’s the all-time leader in wins and has been to victory lane six times. Also in his 42 races at Pocono he has 19 top fives and 29 top tens. In 81% percent of his Pocono starts he’s finished in the top fifteen. Last August he almost got his 7th win at Pocono. He passed Kasey Kahne for the lead following a late restart but on the final restart Kasey Kahne re-passed him for the win. In fairness though if it wasn’t for the caution with 12 laps remaining which erased Kahne’s 7.6 second lead he would’ve never been in contention. His strength in the race was being good over long runs. In June last season he had a mediocre performance. He finished 12th and had a 14th place average running position. In August 2012 Jeff Gordon got his most recent Pocono win. He didn’t have the best car but when Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth got together during a restart he shot right into the lead. Before the chaos started he was running in 5th. In June 2012 he had a top five car but his fuel mileage strategy was wrong and as a result he finished 19th. The odds makers seem to like Gordon’s track record at Pocono because he’s a 6-1 favorite to win. On Sunday Gordon will be piloting his Kansas race winning chassis.