Pocono Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Pocono 400

Very Happy

“The Tricky Triangle” is the perfect name for Pocono Raceway simply because it is almost impossible to be good everywhere at this track. Pocono is a 2.5-mile triangle and the name of the game here is to be comfortable. If a driver is comfortable through two (or maybe even all three) of the turns, they’ll finish up front. A strong engine package never hurts here at this big super speedways, and neither does good fuel mileage, as pit strategy tends to come into play here quite often. The last two spring races at Pocono have been won from the pole, but track position isn’t overly important here, in my opinion. Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s Pocono 400 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. There were then two practice sessions on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also be sure to read Ryan’s extensive notes on each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Pocono was repaved before the 2012 season, so there’s really no need to look at statistics before then.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Pocono 400:

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11. Kurt Busch – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

I have completely overlooked Kurt Busch all week, but it’s hard not to considering the #41 team has been so awful for pretty much the whole season. However, if they can stay out of trouble on Sunday, they have a shot at putting together a decent run in the Pocono 400. In the four events here since the repave, Kurt has posted three top 10 finishes and has averaged a driver rating of 99.9–good enough for 6th-best in the series. He qualified 2nd on Friday and backed that up with a solid Practice #2, finishing 9th on the speed chart. In Happy Hour Kurt was 2nd on the speed chart behind Kevin Harvick, which is hard to ignore. However, there’s so much risk involved in picking Kurt Busch that I wouldn’t recommend it at all, but if you’re feeling the urge, he might be able to crank out a top 10 finish on Sunday. Or do his normal thing and end up in the 30s.

12. Kyle Busch – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Like at Dover, Kyle Busch is very up and down here at Pocono. He ended up inside the top 10 in both races here last season, but in the two events after the repave in 2012, Rowdy finished 30th and 33rd. Yes, inconsistent. A lot of fantasy racers are going to avoid Kyle Busch this weekend because of the disaster at Dover, but I wouldn’t hold that against him. Things happen. However, the #18 Toyota just hasn’t been overly fast this weekend at “The Tricky Triangle,” and I can’t get over that. Busch had a pretty good qualifying run on Friday and will start 6th in the Pocono 400, but he really struggled in Happy Hour when the track heated up, posting just the 21st-fastest lap. He was 23rd on the speed chart in Practice #2. Personally, Kyle Busch won’t be on many of my rosters this weekend, but there is potential there if you want to roll the dice.

13. Brian Vickers – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Vickers hasn’t raced in a Sprint Cup car here at the “new” Pocono yet but Friday didn’t indicate that at all, as he put down a blazing fast lap in Practice #1, beating 2nd-fastest Brad Keselowski by almost two tenths. Vickers went on to qualify 9th later that day. In Practice #2, the #55 Toyota was 3rd on the speed chart and in Happy Hour he backed it down to 17th–although that was probably due to the fact that he was trying running on old tires. I think this team has a better can than that, though. Vickers burned a lot of people last week at Dover–myself included–but you can’t predict mechanical issues and he did have a good car. This team still has top 15s in four of the last five Sprint Cup events and they should be able to add another here at Pocono on Sunday. On the old surface, Brian was able to post five finishes of 6th or better in 14 career starts, two of which were 2nd-place results (2008 and 2005). It’s hard to trust him, I know, but Vickers is still having a great season; don’t let one bad week make you forget about that.

14. Greg Biffle – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Nothing jumps off the page when it comes to The Biff this weekend but he should have a solid top 15 run on Sunday. The #16 Ford will roll off the grid in 13th when the green flag flies over the Pocono 400, and Biffle was 21st in Practice #2. In Happy Hour he ended up 13th on the speed chart, which is good but not great. Of course the Roush-Fenway Fords never do any long runs in practice–especially on the big tracks–but Biffle has spent almost 88% of the laps in the top 15 here at Pocono since the repave and will look to have that type of a day on Sunday. In the four races on this “new” track, Greg has finished 24th, 15th, 2nd, and 10th. I really don’t think he’ll be able to crack the top 10 in the Pocono 400 but a solid top 15 isn’t out of the question by any means for this team.

15. Denny Hamlin – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

As soon as I saw that Denny Hamlin won the pole for the Pocono 400, I knew I’d have to dedicate part of this article on explaining why he is fools gold this week. Yes, it’s hard to look past the driver who gets the pole on any given weekend, but keep in mind that this is still Denny Hamlin we’re talking about. He used to be unstoppable at Pocono but since the repave he’s averaged a running position of 19.3 and a finish of 21.3, all the while having an average starting spot of 8.3. He can qualify here but right now he can’t be trusted to bring home the finish. Don’t let his 5th-place finish at Dover last weekend fool you, either. Hamlin will struggle to crack the top 10 on Sunday. However, because he qualified so well for this year’s Pocono 400, and because he was 10th in Happy Hour, I’ll give him this 15th-place ranking. Personally, I still wouldn’t pick him, though, until this team can show that they can put together a string of good races and finishes.

The Next Ten:

16. Kyle Larson
17. Jamie McMurray
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Clint Bowyer
20. Paul Menard
21. Austin Dillon
22. Martin Truex, Jr.
23. Aric Almirola
24. Marcos Ambrose
25. Danica Patrick

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