Michigan Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks / Predictions
Who will be the next “Michigan Man”?
Michigan is the purest of the pure intermediate tracks. Starting position isn’t overly important because it’s a big wide track with multiple grooves. If a driver has a fast car they should be able to drive to the front with limited difficulty. At Michigan drivers with good long run cars will shine because green flag pit stops are guaranteed. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will start on the pole. Sunday’s starting lineup can be found by Clicking Here. There were two practice sessions on Saturday. Practice #2 notes can be found by Clicking Here and Practice #2 Speeds can be found by Clicking Here. Happy Hour Practice Notes can be found by Clicking Here and Happy Hour Speeds can be found by Clicking Here.
Other important links of interest: Michigan Speed Cheat Sheet, Michigan Pit Stall Selections, Michigan PROS Rankings, Michigan Scouting Report
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NOTE: This post is a combined Confidence Ranking Picks and Post Practice Predictions post. Posts will resume back to normal next week. Thanks you for understanding.
Final Top 15 Ranking + 5 Notables For The Michigan Quicken Loans 400:
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kevin Harvick is entering the Michigan Quicken Loans 400 as a 7-1 co-favorite to win. There’s many reasons why he’s viewed so highly. Perhaps the main reason is that he’s arguably been the best driver week in and week out this season. If bad things didn’t happen to him in races he would have a handful of wins at this point in the season. At high-speed intermediate tracks in particular he’s been a top five contender in every race. In the two races on this track type that he avoided trouble he’s finished 2nd twice. One race he avoided trouble is Kansas and I consider that a mini-Michigan. At that venue he led 119 laps but lost the race on pit road. On Sunday he’ll be piloting that chassis once again. This chassis also seen track time at Phoenix where Harvick went to victory lane. Last season at Michigan Kevin Harvick didn’t lead any laps but he did finish 2nd twice. Last August he had a 6th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1.018 seconds behind race winner Joey Logano. In June 2013 Kevin Harvick was the runner-up to Greg Biffle. I wouldn’t say he was 2nd place good though. In the event he started in 21st, had a 10th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. In 2012 on the new surface he had results of 16th and 10th. At Michigan Harvick is a former winner who has a 13.8 average finish. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will start on the pole. This race has been won from that starting position 17.9% percent of the time. In practice Kevin Harvick has been very strong especially over long runs. In both Practice #2 and Happy Hour he had the best 10 lap average. I think this team will be very dangerous on Sunday as long as they avoid some type of “let down” which has happened too frequently this season.
2. Jeff Gordon – Starts 2nd– Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Points leader Jeff Gordon is a fairly safe fantasy option for the Michigan Quicken Loans 400. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been extremely strong. In the five races on this track type he’s scored the most points, has the best driver rating, a 6.4 average finish and a 6.8 average running position. In the races at the two tracks I consider the most similar he’s performed extremely well. I consider Kansas a mini-Michigan and at that venue he raced his way to victory lane. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track and at that venue he would’ve went to victory lane if the final caution didn’t come out. On Sunday he’ll be racing his Auto Club chassis once again. Most recently this chassis finished 7th at Charlotte. His odds to win are listed at 10-1. Last August at Michigan Jeff Gordon was never competitive and finished 17th with a 17th place average running position. Last June Jeff Gordon had a short race. On lap #6 while he was racing Bobby Labonte for 22nd the #47 car got loose, spun, and collected Jeff Gordon. In 2012 Jeff Gordon had strong showings in both races. In August 2012 he had a top ten car but on lap #94 he lost a cylinder. In the first race on the new surface he finished 6th. From a career perspective Michigan has been a good track for him. He has two wins, finished in the top five 43% percent of the time and in the top ten 60% percent of the time. Nobody has finished 2nd more than Gordon at Michigan. He’s finished 2nd a series record 8 times. In practice on Friday Jeff Gordon felt very good about his car. He was pleased with his balance & speed and said his car was “exceptional”. On Saturday his car remained quick and he was good in both practice sessions. In Happy Hour he was good over long runs and his ten lap average speed rank was the second best. On Sunday Gordon will start in 2nd. This race has been won from that starting position 8.9% percent of the time.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has strong fantasy NASCAR potential at Michigan for the Quicken Loans 400. He’s a two-time winner and he’s entering the race fresh off the momentum of his Pocono win. Since the Michigan repave Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been one of the strongest competitors. In every race he’s had top five potential and nobody has led more laps then him (174). In the first race on the new surface he was unchallenged and went to victory lane. In that race he essentially led the entire second half of the event and cruised to a 5.393 margin of victory. In the next race at Michigan (August 2012) he backed up his win by finishing 4th and leading 25 laps. Last year at MIS he performed well in both races, but walked away with poor results. In June 2013 his car was extremely fast. He led 34 laps but around lap 120 while he was leading his engine went south and eleven laps later it blew up. If he didn’t have that issue he was a lock for a top five finish. Last August he was very competitive but finished 36th. That result isn’t at all reflective of how he performed. On lap 135 he was running in 7th place but he blew a tire and got into the wall hard. Prior to that incident I would estimate his average running position would be around 4th. This week Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s odds to win are 10-1. The chassis under his Superman paint scheme was raced in the Coca Cola 600. In that race he was a top ten contender until he had problems. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been one of the strongest competitors. On Sunday he’ll start in 3rd. In practice his car was very quick. In Happy Hour he had the 4th best 10 lap average.
4. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Jimmie Johnson has performed at an extremely high-level at Michigan but the win has continued to allude him. Michigan is one of just five venues he’s never been to victory lane. Being winless is by no means due to lack of performance, it’s due to bad luck whether it’s running out of gas or blowing up in the closing laps. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Johnson has been strong. Charlotte is the last high-speed intermediate track visited and at that venue he went to victory lane. On Sunday he’ll be driving that very chassis once again. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and earlier this year he was a lock to go to victory lane if his tire didn’t come apart in the closing laps. In that event he earned the best driver rating, led more than half the laps (104), and had a 4th place average running position. In August 2013 at Michigan Johnson raced in his backup car and started in the rear of the field. By lap 31 he was up to 15th. His race didn’t go on much longer than that. On lap 54 he was on pit road with his hood up and he was done for the day. At the time of his problem he was running right around 10th. In June 2013 Johnson had one of the best cars but his result and stats line don’t reflect that. In the race he had bad restarts and poor pit strategy but he was still within striking distance at the end. He rebounded late in the race and was running in 2nd with three laps to go but he had a flat tire and as a result he finished 28th. In August 2012 he was leading with 5 laps to go but his engine blew up. In June 2012 he started in the rear of the field and drove up to a 5th place finish. Despite being winless at Michigan Johnson is a 7-1 co-favorite to win the Michigan Quicken Loans 400. On Sunday Johnson will start in 7th. In practice Johnson never did complete 10 consecutive laps but yet his car was one of the fastest on the stop watch. Look for Jimmie Johnson to be one of the drivers to beat in the Michigan Quicken Loans 400.
5. Kyle Larson – Starts 12th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kyle Larson is more than capable of coming home with a good result in the Michigan Quicken Loans 400. High speed intermediate tracks with a high-line are places where he can thrive. Last year in the lower series when he raced here he finished 2nd. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Larson has been at his best. His average finish on this track type is 11.2. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and at that venue he finished 2nd and earned the 10th best driver rating. One attribute Larson has entering this race is momentum. Over the last five races he’s scored the 5th most points. His odds to win are 25-1. On Sunday he’ll start in 12th. In Happy Hour his car was very quick. He had the fastest overall lap time and the 5th best 10 lap average. I think this rookie will be a contender on Sunday.
6. Brad Keselowski – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Michigan is Brad Keselowski’s home track and I expect him to have a strong performance. After how Pocono played out I think he’ll be out to redeem himself in the Quicken Loans 400. This week he’s entering the race with 8-1 odds and his team is once again rolling out a new chassis. In 2014 on high-speed intermediate tracks Keselowski has consistently been one of the strongest drivers. He hasn’t always finished the best but his performances have him ranked near the top. In the five races on this track type he has a 7.4 average running position (2nd best), led 232 laps (3rd best), and has the second best driver rating. Recently at Michigan Keselowski has performed quite well. Last year he finished 12th in both races but he performed better than that in each event. Last August he decided to play the fuel mileage game near the end and it didn’t work out well for him because he had to pit under green while leading late. In June 2013 he had a 10th place average running position and finished 12th. On the last lap of the race he was running in 5th but ran out of gas and coasted to his eventual finish position. In August 2012 Keselowski finished 2nd and led 17 laps. This weekend Keselowski hasn’t run 10 consecutive laps in any session. I don’t view it as a sign of struggles.
7. Joey Logano – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Joey Logano is the most recent winner at Michigan. Last August he started first and finished first. Along the way he led 51 laps, had a 4th place average running position and earned the best driver rating. The strength of his car was being good over long runs. Last June he also had a strong showing. In that race he led 21 laps, finished 9th, and had a 6th place average running position. The attribute I really like about Logano this week is how strong he’s been on high-speed intermediate tracks this season. In the four races on this track type minus Auto Club Speedway where he had problems he has a 5.3 average finish and a 6.3 average running position. In my opinion I think he’s consistently been the strongest driver at these venues. Horsepower is huge at Michigan and last week at Pocono Logano and Keselowski proved they have plenty of ponies under their hood. This week Logano will be bringing a new chassis to the track. His odds to win are listed at 8-1. On Sunday he’ll start in 9th. In practice this weekend Joey Logano hasn’t really done anything noteworthy. Performance wise he’s looked about mid-pack on the speed charts. This is one of those weeks where his fantasy value heavily lies in his 2014 body of work.
8. Clint Bowyer – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Clint Bowyer is by no means a bad fantasy pick at Michigan. In the four races on the new surface he’s one of just two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Since the repave he has a 6.5 average finish, 13.5 average running position and the 10th best driver rating. Last August he spun early but that didn’t prove to be a problem. He rebounded from that and earned his best Michigan result (5th). Last June he damaged the nose of his car early when the traffic ahead of him bottled up. For much of the race he ran towards the back but in the last segment he drove up to a 7th place finish. In August 2012 he had a smooth race and finished 7th, earned the 8th best driver rating and led 19 laps. In June 2012 he also finished 7th. In 2011 at MIS he finished 8th both races. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Clint Bowyer has performed well but he’s had trouble in quite a few of the races he performed well in (Auto Club, Las Vegas, and Charlotte). Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track and at that venue he had top five potential until he had a flat in the closing laps. This week Bowyer is using his 17th place Charlotte chassis. In that race he also had top five potential until he had trouble around the mid-point. Bowyer’s odds to win are listed at 25-1. On Sunday he’ll start in 15th. In practice this weekend Clint Bowyer has had a fast car. In practice #2 he had the 4th best ten lap average and in Happy Hour he had the 3rd best ten lap average.
9. Brian Vickers – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Brian Vickers is a quality dark horse sleeper pick at Michigan. In August 2011 he had his most recent start and finished 16th. In his six Michigan races prior to that he had six straight top ten finishes. His average finish in his last seven Michigan races is 9.14. In August 2009 he outlasted Jimmie Johnson on fuel and raced his way to victory lane. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Vickers has been strong. He’s scored the 5th most points, has an 8.8 average finish and has had a result in the top fifteen every race. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited this year and at that venue he finished 7th, had a 7th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. This week Vickers is racing a chassis he tested at Kentucky. His odds to win are listed at 30 -1. On Sunday Vickers will start in 10th. This race has been won from a top ten starting position 75.2% percent of the time. In Happy Hour Vickers had a quick car. He didn’t run 10 consecutive laps but he was fast on the stop watch. At the end of Happy Hour he told his team, “I think I know what we need”.
10. Matt Kenseth – Starts 21st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Matt Kenseth has been Mr. Consistent on high-speed intermediate tracks this season. He hasn’t been a serious competitor for any wins but he’s always finished near the front. In the five races on this track type he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top ten all five races. As a result of his success he’s scored the 2nd most points and has the second best average finish (6.8). Michigan throughout his career has been a good track for him. In 29 races he has 2 wins, 12 top fives and 18 top tens. Also at Michigan his average finish is 9.6. Last August at Michigan Kenseth didn’t have a great race. He had a 10th place average running position and finished 15th. He was a top 8 driver through the first 3/4th’s of the race but in the last quarter he was mired back in the mid-teens. In June 2013 Kenseth had a good performance. He earned the 2nd best driver rating, finished 6th, and had a 6th place average running position. He could’ve potentially finished better but on a restart with 27 laps to go he fell from 3rd to about 13th. In August 2012 he finished in 17th but his race wasn’t trouble free. In that event he had a flat tire while he was running in the top ten. In the first race on the new surface he finished 3rd, earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and led 17 laps. This week his odds to win are listed at 10-1. On Sunday Kenseth will start in 21st. Although Matt Kenseth didn’t have one of the fastest cars I still think he’ll be a factor. This is the type of race he performs well in and he’ll get his car tuned to his liking by the end.
11. Kasey Kahne – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kasey Kahne is a driver with volatile fantasy value who needs to be noted. He typically performs well at Michigan but by no means is he immune to finding trouble. He’s a former winner who’s finished in the top ten 45% percent of the time. Unfortunately in 35% percent of his starts he’s had a result outside the top 28. Last August he started deep in the field but that wasn’t an issue for him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th and earned the 10th best driver rating. In June 2013 Kasey Kahne had a great car. He started in 3rd, led 14 laps but while he was leading he had a blown tire and nailed the wall. As a result of that he finished 38th. His PROS Rankings for that race ranked 2nd to only Jimmie Johnson. In August 2012 he was very good. He finished 3rd and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In the first race on the repaved surface he was involved in an accident and finished 33rd. This week Kahne is using his Charlotte chassis that finished 14th. His odds to win are listed at 12-1. On Sunday he’ll start in lucky 13th right alongside his good friend Kyle Busch. Although Kasey Kahne hasn’t run 10 consecutive laps this weekend he hasn’t looked bad speed wise. The main question pertaining to him is if he can avoid a fantasy let down.
12. Paul Menard – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Paul Menard is a solid sleeper pick at Michigan. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks he’s quietly been one of the best performers. In the five races on this track type he has four top tens, a 9.2 average finish and has scored the 6th most points. His best finish of the season on this track type was at Las Vegas and at that venue he finished 3rd. On Sunday he’ll be racing that very chassis again. This chassis also finished 8th at Charlotte. From a career perspective Michigan hasn’t been a great track for him. He has a 20.3 average finish and only has three top tens. Fortunately two of those top tens have come in the last four races. Last August Menard finished 4th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 12th place average running position. Menard had a good car in June 2013. He qualified in 4th and ran in the top ten until an early pit stop where he took four tires and nearly everyone else took two. That decision dropped him back to about 20th. From that point on he consistently ran between tenth and the mid-teens. When the checkered flag waved he finished 14th. Also in that race he had a 14th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. In August 2012 he had a solid performance. He had a 10th place average running position and finished 9th. In the first race on the new Michigan surface he finished 22nd. On Sunday Menard will start in 5th.
13. Kyle Busch – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Kyle Busch has been a solid performer. In the five races on this track type he’s scored the 3rd most points and has a 7.8 average finish. Also on this track type he has a 10.8 average running position and is one of just five drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every week. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track and at that venue he went to victory lane and had a 6.0 average running position. At Michigan Kyle Busch is a former winner and in 61% percent of his starts he’s had a result in the top fifteen. At Michigan Busch only has four top five results but luckily three of those have come in the last six races. Last August at MIS Kyle Busch finished in 31st, three laps down. That result is misleading because in the last quarter of the race he got into the wall multiple times. Before his initial contact with the wall he was running around 10th. He had a strong showing in June 2013. He qualified 9th and drove up to 7th but during the lap #20 competition caution he was penalized for passing cars on pit road. That penalty sent him back to the high twenties. Fortunately it was early and he had 180 laps to recover. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th. On Sunday Kyle Busch is starting in 14th and his odds to win are 12-1. In Happy Hour I thought he ran decent lap times. I think when the track gets slick tomorrow he’ll be good.
14. Kurt Busch – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kurt Busch is a driver who fantasy racers should be watching closely at Michigan. He hasn’t performed well for much of the season but in recent weeks he’s shown improvement. That said he’s a high risk fantasy option. At Michigan horsepower is important and separates the contenders from the pretenders. Another big thing about horsepower at a track like Michigan is that it can mask deficiencies in other areas of performance. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and at that venue he had his best finish by far on this track type. That afternoon he finished 3rd and earned the 6th best driver rating. Pocono is another big horsepower track and last week he also finished 3rd there. Last year at Michigan Kurt Busch performed well. In August he finished 3rd, had a 5th place average running position and led 43 laps. In June 2013 he qualified 2nd and led until the competition caution (21 laps). Shortly after the restart on lap #29 while he was running in 4th he spun and damaged the #78. That led to his 35th place finish. From a career perspective picking Kurt Busch at Michigan has been volatile. He’s a two-time winner but he’s also finished outside the top twenty 50% percent of the time. This week he’s using a chassis that’s lacked success in 2014. I find his odds to win pretty surprising. The odds makers have him listed at 15-1. On Sunday Busch will start in 5th. The speed Busch showed in practice was decent but I think he’s off from the guys who will be contenders.
15. Tony Stewart – Starts 26th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Tony Stewart is a driver who I think is starting to turn the corner performance wise. In the last few races he’s shown great improvement compared to how he looked earlier this season. I just wish he was starting closer to the front with the other Hendrick engine big dogs and not 26th. Starting position isn’t overly important here because it’s a big wide track with lots of passing but it’s always a plus to have. Since Michigan was repaved Tony Stewart has only been in three races because he missed last August’s race due to injury. Driving in his place Austin Dillon finished 14th. In June 2013 Tony Stewart had a good car. He had a 10th place average running position, earned the 11th best driver rating and finished 5th. In August 2012 Stewart had a short race. He lost a cylinder early and finished 32nd. In the first race on the new MIS surface he finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 18 laps. Typically at Michigan as long as Tony Stewart avoids trouble he’s been a lock for a good result. Minus his engine problem in 2012 and crash in 2006 then he’s finished in the top twelve in 15 of the last 16 races. Over his career he’s finished in the top ten 69% percent of the time. That level of consistency can’t be overlooked. Also at Michigan, Stewart has one win and an 11.7 average finish. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and earlier this year he earned his best result of the season and finished 5th. This week Tony Stewart is using his Phoenix chassis. In Happy Hour Tony Stewart didn’t run many laps and there really wasn’t anything special about his lap times.
Notable Drivers:
Carl Edwards – Michigan is a Roush track and Carl Edwards always performs well. He’s a two-time winner who’s shown remarkable consistency. His average finish is 8.3 and he’s finished in the top ten 79% percent of the time. In 47% percent of his starts he’s had a top five result. Another strength of his at Michigan is that he avoids really bad results because only twice in his 19 starts has he had a result outside the top 12. Since Michigan has been repaved Edwards has been one of the strongest performers. He has an 8.8 average finish and a worst result of 11th. Last August he finished 10th, had an 11th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. In June 2013 Carl Edwards had a strong performance. He started on the pole, led 16 laps, had a 7th place average running position and finished 8th. In that race his car was better than his finish position. Late in the race while he was running in 2nd he came in for a pit stop but was burned by a caution after he completed his stop. That dropped him all the way back to 24th with only about 30 laps remaining. In 2012 Edwards had results of 6th and 11th. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Edwards hasn’t been the strongest but yet he has a 7.8 average finish. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and earlier this season he finished 10th there. I consider Kansas a mini-Michigan and at that venue he finished 6th. On Sunday he’ll be racing that very chassis once again. In practice this weekend Edwards only made mini runs so it’s hard to gauge just how good he is because I really don’t think he even knows.
Greg Biffle – Since Michigan has been repaved Biffle has unquestionably been the most successful driver. He’s won half the races, finished in the top five 3 times and is one of only two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. His average finish since the repave is 3.8. A few more statistical categories he ranks #1 on the new surface are average running position (7.3), driver rating, laps led and fastest laps run. Last August at MIS he finished 9th and had a 9th place average running position. Also in the race he earned the 5th best driver rating and led 28 laps. In June 2013 he went to victory lane. In that race he started mid pack but by around lap 100 he climbed into the top 5. Also in that race he led 48 laps. In August 2012 he also went to victory lane. In that race he was running in 2nd and was the beneficiary of Jimmie Johnson’s late engine failure. In the first race on the new MIS surface Biffle finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position, led 38 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. From a historical perspective Michigan has been his best track. 21% percent of all his victories have come here and this track ranks #1 for him in terms of top 5 finish percentage and top 10 finish percentage. What concerns me about Biffle this week is that he’s lacked performance wise on high-speed intermediate tracks this year. On this track type minus Auto Club Speedway (flat tire issues) he has a 16.3 average finish and a 17.0 average running position. This week his odds to win are listed at 20-1. The chassis he’s driving this week finished 21st at Charlotte. On Sunday Biffle will start in 18th. On the speed charts this weekend Biffle has not looked great. A pick in him this weekend is largely based off his Michigan track record.
Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin is a risky fantasy prospect at Michigan. He’s a won here twice but recently he hasn’t performed well. In four of the five most recent Michigan races he’s had a result worse than 20th. In three of those five he had a result of 30th or worse. Last year at Michigan he was terrible in both races. Last August the key number you need to know about him is 20. He finished 20th, had a 20th place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In the race he started in 8th but he dropped through the running order like a rock. At lap 20 he was all the way back to 24th. In June last season he was even worse. In that race he had a 29th place average running position, finished 30th and earned the 30th best driver rating. He didn’t hit anything or have any notable issues, his car was simply that bad. One attribute I like about Hamlin this week is that he’s starting to perform better on a week to week basis. In the last two races he’s had results of 4th and 5th. Hamlin’s odds are listed at 15-1. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Hamlin has typically performed like a low double digit performer. On Sunday Hamlin will start in 29th. In practice nothing really stood out about Denny Hamlin this weekend. When you combine that with other attributes of his this weekend it’s probably best to avoid him.
Ryan Newman – At Michigan Ryan Newman is a two-time winner but at one point in his career he went 12 straight races without a top ten. Since 2011 he’s started to re-experience success. Over the last six races his 10.8 average finish ranks as the 4th best. In the four races specifically on the new surface he has a 13.5 average finish and a 16.0 average running position. Last August Newman had a solid race. He started in 21st and climbed up towards the top ten in just the first 20 laps. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th. In the race I thought he performed slightly better than he finished. He was a driver who had to save fuel over the final run and when you can’t run hard you get passed. Over the last 37 laps he went from 7th to 13th. Ryan Newman was a “Mid Pack” driver in June 2013. He started in 35th, had a 21st place average running position and finished 18th. Also in the event he only ran 6.5% percent of the laps in the top fifteen and earned the 24th best driver rating. In 2012 he had results of 8th and 15th. In 2011 his results were 5th and 6th. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Newman only has one top ten result but he does have a 13.8 average finish and a 13.8 average running position. The chassis Newman will be driving on Sunday has been used at the two high-speed intermediate tracks I view the most similar to Michigan. It finished 11th at Kansas and 20th at Auto Club. On Sunday Newman will start in 24th and his odds to win are 35-1.
Jamie McMurray – Jamie McMurray is a driver who’s flying below the radar this week. This year on high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been quite good. On this track type minus Kansas he has a 10.8 average finish and a 12.5 average running position. At Kansas he was running in 4th on lap 151 but he got into the wall hard. Auto Club Speedway is the most similar track visited and at that venue he finished 6th. Michigan has not been a great track for McMurray from a career perspective. He’s only finished in the top ten 18% percent of the time and since 2010 he hasn’t finished better than 14th. Last August McMurray started in the back because of an engine change. In the race he did not perform well. He finished 22nd and had a 28th place average running position. In June 2013 McMurray started in 33rd but didn’t stay back for long. He used pit strategy early and went on to lead 21 laps. That was only a temporary gain because shortly after that he had to make a green flag pit stop. He was able to rebound from that and legitimately drove up into the top ten by the lap #140 mark. On lap #167 his day went south. He was running in 7th at the time but he had a blown tire that caused heavy damage. In both 2012 races McMurray finished 14th. On Sunday he’ll start in 11th and his odds to win are 60-1.
