Sonoma Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Toyota / Save Mart 350

Turns, Strategy, and Gas Mileage

Strategy is the name of the game here at Sonoma. As soon as the green flag waves on Sunday, crew chiefs will be working the race backwards to try and make it the whole way on fuel without pitting an extra time. So, those cars who have had good fuel mileage all season have a bit of an advantage. However, to be in a position to win, you have to have a good race car and know how to get around all of the turns at this road course. There were two practice sessions on Friday, and those results can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to read Ryan’s notes on each session: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Qualifying was Saturday and Jamie McMurray won the pole. The full starting lineup for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Toyota/Save Mart 350:

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11. Kyle Larson – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This rookie has just one finish worse than 16th since the beginning of April–ten Sprint Cup races–and that was an 18th at Charlotte. This isn’t your typical rook. Larson has extremely limited experience when it comes to road course race tracks, but he really put some effort into preparing for this Sonoma event by going to a road course driving school as well as getting pointers from Scott Pruett. And all of that paid off. The #42 Chevrolet was 5th on the speed chart in Practice #1 and in Happy Hour Larson ended up 6th on the board. Not too bad for turning your first laps at a track like Sonoma. As long as Larson can stay on track Sunday he should, as usual, be a threat for a top 10 finish and a lock for a top 15. I wouldn’t use him in allocation leagues but in some leagues Kyle could be an option this week, especially salary cap games where his price is low.

12. A.J. Allmendinger – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This guy has been at the top of most people’s sleeper lists all weekend long, and for good reason: in his last four starts at Sonoma, A.J. hasn’t finished worse than 13th and has collected two top 10s. To be fair, he was in some good equipment in all of those races (Richard Petty Motorsports and Penske Racing), but I’m not too worried about mechanical issues on the #47 JTG Daugherty Ford this weekend. Allmendinger has been consistent over the last month of Sprint Cup racing–four finishes between 21st and 23rd–and that’s what I like to see out of these mid-level teams heading into a race weekend where driver talent can really shine. This team has also had good runs on tracks that require horsepower–8th at Auto Club, 5th at Talladega–so that makes me like A.J. even more this weekend. The #47 Chevrolet was 18th-fastest in first practice and 15th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. I think fantasy owners might be able to sneak a top 10 out of The Dinger this weekend if everything goes right, but going into the Toyota/Save Mart 350 he only has a top 15 car.

13. Brad Keselowski – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Brad Keselowski has three straight 2nd-place finishes over at Watkins Glen, so you’d think he would have found success here at Sonoma by now, right? Not the case. BK isn’t terrible here at the California road course, but his career best finish at Sonoma in four career starts has been 10th, and that came during the 2011 season. However, I think that will change on Sunday. This team is right behind the #48 crew in terms of momentum, with three straight finishes of 3rd or better and four straight top 10s. Plus, Paul Wolfe is one of the masters when it comes to strategy, and that’s essentially what these road course races come down to. The Blue Deuce ranked 20th on the Practice #1 speed chart and ended up 16th in Happy Hour. The #2 crew is knocking on the door of another win, but we will have to wait and see whether or not that will come here at Sonoma on Sunday. My money is on that it won’t.

14. Brian Vickers – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Brian Vickers has had a rough, rough month of June thus far, with finishes of 43rd and 42nd at Dover and Michigan, so there’s a million reasons not to trust him right now. But Vickers is actually a pretty good road course racer, and I still think Michael Waltrip Racing has a little advantage over the other organizations at Sonoma right now. Brian ran the #55 Toyota here last season and came home with a 13th-place finish after finishing 4th here in 2012 in the same car. Also, in his last six attempts here at Sonoma, Vickers has only finished worse than 16th once. In other words, he’s a consistent fantasy pick here on California’s road course–but can you trust him this week? He was 3rd-fastest in Practice #1 and ranked 8th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. On a positive note, Vickers showed up on the ten-lap average chart in both sessions, so you know they were working on race runs. Personally, I would try and avoid Vickers for now until he looks like he can run top 5 at worst, or until he gets a little momentum and a few more good runs under his belt.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This Furniture Row Racing team is finally getting on the same page and we should start seeing Truex as a consistent and valuable fantasy option from here on out–and it should start with a good run here at Sonoma. Remember, Martin led almost half the race here last season en route to his win. In each of the last three races at this track Truex has had a driver rating of at least 100.0, so you know the talent is there. The question this weekend is whether the equipment will be able to vault Martin into the top 10 or better. The #78 Chevrolet was 4th-fastest in Practice #1 and ranked 7th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. In that first session Truex mentioned that this weekend the car is “close” to last year’s but there’s concern about speed over a long run. That’s not going to help him any on Sunday. Truex should be considered a top 15 pick this weekend with a shot at a top 10 when it’s all said and done.

The Next Ten:

16. Matt Kenseth
17. Jamie McMurray
18. Greg Biffle
19. Kyle Busch
20. Ryan Newman
21. Paul Menard
22. Kasey Kahne
23. Denny Hamlin
24. Danica Patrick
25. Casey Mears

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