Indianapolis Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – John Wayne Walding 400
Rainy Uncertainty
Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the tracks where rain on a race weekend can really cause a lot of confusion for Sprint Cup teams as well as fantasy racers. We only visit here once a year and there’s really not another venue on the circuit that is similar to compare statistics with. So, the rain in Indy on Saturday wasn’t the ideal situation. The teams did get a full practice in on Friday afternoon, though. To view those results, click here. To review the notes on that session, click here. Happy Hour on Saturday was shortened by rain and made teams choose whether or not to focus on qualifying trim or race trim. The results of that practice can be found by clicking here, and you can click here for the notes for Happy Hour, which will let you know whether some teams were in race or qualifying trim. As a general rule, the teams that struggled the most in practice on Friday were the ones that still ran in race trim on Saturday. Kevin Harvick won the pole for Sunday’s John Wayne Walding 400 at the Brickyard, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Because of the limited practice data this weekend, I’ll be looking back at the Pocono race despite the fact that the two tracks are quite different. However, fuel strategy is used at both and both Indianapolis and Pocono rely on strong engines and good handling.
A couple things to keep in mind this weekend: One, more rain is in the forecast for Sunday. We might not race, which would push the John Wayne Walding 400 back to Monday, where we are expected to have cooler temperatures. This track changes a lot based on conditions. Two, qualifying is pretty important here, simply because it is so hard to pass. We’re probably going to see a “follow the leader” type of race, and if a driver starts deep in the field, chances are they’re going to need some strategy all day to get up front, unless they have a great car. One pit road mistake could ruin a team’s day.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The John Wayne Walding 400:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th (change: -6)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
For what it’s worth, here’s your winner of the Pocono race last month. As I’ve been saying all weekend, a strong race car is going to be the key to winning this weekend, and when you look at the Sprint Cup garage, the Hendrick and Penske teams are at the top right now. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was 24th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday, but the team thought they had a good long-run race car, which will pay dividends here on Sunday. The #88 was 4th on the five-lap average chart that session. In Happy Hour, the #88 crew focused on qualifying trim and ended up with the 5th-fastest lap. Junior seemed a little frustrated on the radio in that first session and kept reporting that the car was tight throughout the whole weekend. It’s supposed to be a little hotter in Indy on Sunday, which should help alleviate that a little bit, but with rain in the forecast, we could get pushed back to Monday and then the temperature is going to drop. We’ll have to see how it goes, but I think Junior could be a top 10 threat either way, as long as the #88 team limits their mistakes. The mid-pack qualifying effort definitely isn’t going to help. Dale’s career average finish of 19.3 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a little hard to swallow but he has posted top 10 finishes in each of the last two events here and leads the series this year with 13 results inside that mark thus far. Steve Letarte decided on chassis no. 88-882 this weekend, which is the same one Junior used to finish 7th with at Michigan in June. This team is going to have to work all race day to get Junebug up near the front.
12. Kasey Kahne – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
My knock on Kasey Kahne every weekend is that he is so up-and-down at race tracks that I have zero confidence in him when I put him on my fantasy rosters. That still holds true for him at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but a little less. In ten career starts here, Kasey has ended up inside the top 10 in half of them and has only two results worse than 18th. That’s very good for him. As I’ve mentioned all week, a lot of horsepower is what you need to run well here at Indianapolis and you know those Hendrick powerplants are producing plenty. Kahne finished 3rd here at Indianapolis last season after starting 7th. This year he’ll roll off the grid inside the top 10 once again, and while he wasn’t great during the weekend’s practice sessions, the #5 Chevrolet was 15th-fastest in Practice #1 as well as Happy Hour. In terms of momentum right now, Kahne has finished 11th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races, with the exception being his 27th-place run at Daytona.
13. Kyle Larson – Starts 15th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 18th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Indianapolis is tough for rookies.” Yeah, they say that about Pocono, too, and Larson finished 5th there last month. This isn’t your typical rookie, people. Right now it’s pretty difficult to handicap a guy like Larson heading into a race weekend, but it never fails that he jumps up many spots in my rankings after practice and qualifying. Kyle has raced here at Indianapolis before in the Nationwide Series (last season) and he ended up a respectable 11th. This weekend, the #42 Chevrolet was 5th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up 8th-fastest in Happy Hour. It was noted that Larson had good drive off the corners, which is especially important in turns 2 and 4 here at Indianapolis. As long as “The Phenom” can keep it off the wall on Sunday–please don’t try the same stuff you did at Eldora, Kyle–I think we’re looking at a top 15 run once again for Larson, and maybe a top 10 with some strategy. This team ran into some struggles at Sonoma, Kentucky, and Daytona, but they still have finishes of 11th or better in four of the last seven Sprint Cup races–including Kyle’s awesome 3rd-place run at Loudon a couple of weeks ago.
14. Clint Bowyer – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Clint has had a couple of good runs here at Indianapolis (4th in both 2010 and 2006) but most of his starts have ended up into average results. On a positive note, he’s never finished worse than 20th here, but on the flip side those two 4th-place runs are his only top 10s as well. The #15 Toyota was 2nd-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday, which is encouraging. Also, it ranked 3rd on the five-lap average chart during that session, which is even more encouraging. Bowyer also used Happy Hour to work on race trim a little bit, which hopefully (for fantasy owners) helps him a little bit. I’m not expecting much out of Bowyer on Sunday but a top 15 is definitely within reach for him. He likes flat tracks and the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas have shown decent speed all weekend. Perhaps the best thing to say about Bowyer this weekend is that this team has finished 11th or better in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races. There are definitely certain situations where it might pay off to take a chance with the #15 on your fantasy roster this weekend.
15. Juan Montoya – Starts 8th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: Not Ranked
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
There are pretty much an equal number of good things to think about Juan Montoya as there are bad things. He’s in a Penske Ford, which might be the strongest organization in the garage right now, but he wasn’t that impressive while driving this car back in Michigan. He definitely knows how to get around Indianapolis Motor Speedway thanks to his IndyCar experience, but mental mistakes have plagued him in the past here while in a Sprint Cup car. I personally think Montoya should have at least one Cup win here if not for stupid decisions. He ran 9th here last season while still with Earnhardt-Ganassi. The #12 Ford wasn’t great in Practice #1 on Friday (28th-fastest) but Montoya was 6th in Happy Hour and will roll off the grid in 8th once the green flag waves. You know what you’re getting yourself into if you pick JPM on Sunday, but in some leagues (like Yahoo!) it’s almost a necessity. Hopefully he can bring home a decent finish, as he should have the car to do so.
The Next Ten:
16. Jamie McMurray
17. Brian Vickers
18. Greg Biffle
19. Paul Menard
20. Danica Patrick
21. Martin Truex, Jr.
22. Carl Edwards
23. Denny Hamlin
24. Austin Dillon
25. Marcos Ambrose
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Pre-Practice Rank: 5th (change: -6)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 18th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: Not Ranked
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
17. Brian Vickers
18. Greg Biffle
19. Paul Menard
20. Danica Patrick
21. Martin Truex, Jr.
22. Carl Edwards
23. Denny Hamlin
24. Austin Dillon
25. Marcos Ambrose
