Pocono GoBowling.com 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Predictions

Won’t be Tricky for someone

Pocono is called the Tricky Triangle because it’s hard to set your car up to be perfect around the track because every turn is different. The drivers who you’ll see succeed on Sunday will be good off turn 3. All three practice sessions were relevant this weekend towards making an informed fantasy pick. In terms of relevance I would rank them Happy Hour, Practice 1 and then Practice #2. Make sure you read all of our notes about the sessions (Happy Hour, Practice #2, Practice #1) and check out the practice speeds (Happy Hour, Practice #2, Practice #1).  Track position is crucial towards success at Pocono so make sure you check out the starting lineup.

Also I would like to note that this post is a combined Confidence Ranking post / Post Prediction post this week. The regular post schedule will resume next week, thanks for understanding.

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1. Jeff Gordon Final Fantasy Analysis – Jeff Gordon is a driver who you can confidently make your fantasy NASCAR pick for the Pocono GoBowling.com 400. He has momentum, he’s the all-time Pocono wins leader and he has a good car. During an interview in practice #2 Carl Edwards said he wishes his car was as good as Jeff Gordon’s on the 7^th lap in a run. In Happy Hour he remained quick and focused on fine tuning the 24. Look for him to have a good long run car. His ten lap average in final practice ranked as the 3^rd best. One area of improvement needed is short run speed. Look for Jeff Gordon to battle it out for the race win in the Pocono GoBowling.com 400.
Starting Position – 5th
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Pocono has been a great track for Jeff Gordon. He’s won here six times and is the all-time wins leader at the Tricky Triangle. In June he had a pretty good race. He earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and finished 8th. In the race he should’ve finished slightly better but others had better pit strategy and he had some problems on restarts. In the race he showed his normal strength of being good over long runs. Last August he finished 2nd and lost the lead during a Green-White-Checker restart. In June 2013 he finished 12th and there was nothing special about his performance. In August 2012 he was running in 5th but during the final restart of the race the leaders wrecked and how it played out he moved into the lead and went to victory lane. Then it started to rain and the race didn’t go back to green. In the first race on the new surface he had one of the best cars but finished 19th because of how the end of the race played out. In 43 races at Pocono Gordon has finished in the top five 44% percent of the time and in the top ten 70% percent of the time. He’s also been a fairly safe fantasy pick and has only finished outside the top twenty six times.
Similar Track Performances – Indy is the most similar track and there’s no debate Jeff Gordon had the best car. Last week at that venue he went to victory lane, led 40 laps and had a 5th place average running position. The strength of his car was being good over long runs.
Odds To Win – 7/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jeff Gordon will be driving the same chassis he finished 8th with earlier this season at Pocono. This chassis also went to victory lane at Kansas and finished 6th at Kentucky.
Momentum – Fresh off his 5th Brickyard 400 win you have to like his momentum. Minus his New Hampshire fuel mileage debacle and spring Talladega wreck then he hasn’t finished outside the top fifteen once this season. Over the last five races he’s scored the most points in the series.

Recommended Reading – PROS Rankings, Scouting Report, Who will win at Pocono

2. Brad Keselowski Final Fantasy Analysis – On Sunday Brad Keselowski will start 3^rd. That’s the same position he started in June. In that race he took the lead on lap 1, led 95 laps, and had a 4^th place average running position. He had the car to beat but he lost the lead late when his car was overheating and had debris on his grille. Also in that event he earned the best Ranking. That race was within the last two months so you have to like the attribute of how well he performed in that event. This weekend he once again looks fast. In terms of pure overall speed there’s no debating how good he is because he’s been near the top of the speed charts every session. In practice #2 he had the second best ten lap average. In Happy Hour he never completed 10 laps.
Starting Position – 3rd
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Pocono has been a good venue for Brad Keselowski since he won with a broken ankle in August 2011. In the seven Pocono races since then he has a 10.0 average result and the 5th best driver rating. Also in this span of races he has an 11.3 average running position and has led 140 laps. In June at Pocono he had the race won but lost the lead in the closing laps while he was trying to get debris off his grille. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had the best PROS Ranking and led 95 laps. His strength in the race was how strong his car was through the turns. It’s important to note on the straightaways the Hendrick cars were faster than him. Last August he also had a good performance. In that event he finished 6th, had an 8th place average running position, led 14 laps and earned the 4th best driver rating. In June 2013 he had top five potential but walked away with a misleading 16th place finish. In that race with 24 laps to go him and Tony Stewart got loose together and Keselowski lost a ton of track position. Shortly after that he did a pit stop that dropped him back into the mid-twenties but in the last short run he rallied up to a 16th. In that race he earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In 2012 he relied heavily on pit strategy both races. In August that year he finished 4th and in June 2012 he finished 18th.
Similar Track Performances – At Indy Brad Keselowski had a good car but it got damaged on pit road after contact from Kyle Busch. That led to him running very uncompetitively for much of the race. In the last 60 laps he started rallying up to the front and when the checkered flag waved he finished 12th.
Odds To Win – 11/2
Chassis Selection – On Sunday he’ll be driving his 10th place Charlotte chassis.
Momentum – Had a disappointing performance at Indy last week but over the last ten races he’s scored the most points. In half of those races he’s finished in the top five.

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3. Kevin Harvick Final Fantasy Analysis – Kevin Harvick is plenty capable of contending for the win at Pocono in the GoBowling.com 400. All that he needs to do is avoid trouble. In June he wasn’t able to do so and had a flat while running in 2nd with 72.5% percent of the race completed. His car has shown well in practice this weekend. In Happy Hour he had both the best 10 lap and 5 lap average speeds. His crew chief was also pleased with his long run speed because it’s drop off was less than others.
Starting Position – 6th
Risk Level – Medium
Track History – Recently Kevin Harvick has consistently finished around the mid-teens. In 5 of the last 6 Pocono races he’s had a result between 14th and 17th. Earlier this year Kevin Harvick had one of the best cars but his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 116 while he was running in 2nd he had a tire go down and he was forced to make an unscheduled pit stop. The flat tire dropped him all the way down to 32nd one lap down. After Danica Patrick spun on lap 137 he finally got the “Lucky Dog” and over the closing laps he rallied to a 14th place finish. Also in the race earlier this year he earned the 5th best driver rating. Last August in his final race in the 29 car he wasn’t competitive. He finished 16th and had a 17th place average running position. In June 2013 he had a good performance and finished 9th. In that event he performed better than his result and was the victim of a speeding penalty while he was running in the top five. That dropped him back into the mid 20’s with less than half the race remaining. If he didn’t get that penalty I think he could’ve finished in the top five.
Similar Track Performances – Kevin Harvick had a strong showing at Indy and his car ranked among the best. In the race he finished 8th, earned the 4th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position.
Odds To Win – 7/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be driving the chassis he raced at Bristol and Dover this year. This car was very good in both races but neither event was incident free.
Momentum – Last week at Indy Harvick started on the pole and finished 8th. For the most part momentum hasn’t been something this team has attained this season over a duration of time.[hr]