Watkins Glen Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Cheez-It 355

For the third race weekend in a row, pit strategy and fuel mileage will play a part in the finish. Yeah, I’m sick of it too, but we have to deal with it. Watkins Glen is the second of two road course tracks that the Sprint Cup Series visits, and it is a little bit faster of a track than Sonoma (meaning stronger engines will have a bit of an advantage on Sunday). It’s easy to compare the two venues but in reality they are quite different, and certain drivers are better here than there (and vice versa). Both practice sessions of the weekend occurred on Friday, and those results can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Ryan’s notes for each session can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Those are especially important this weekend because we didn’t really get a lot of data from practice due to no long runs made by the teams. Jeff Gordon won the pole for this year’s Cheez-It 355 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Cheez-It 355:

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11. Joey Logano – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th (change: -3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I don’t know what it is, but I just don’t have a good feeling about Joey Logano this weekend. His car is decent, but it’s not as fast as we’ve become used to seeing, and definitely not as good as his teammate’s. The #22 Ford was 6th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday and put down the 7th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. However, those laps were in qualifying trim, and I wasn’t overly impressed with Logano when he was running in race trim. He also had the splitter come apart on him during the initial qualifying session, so they’re either going to have to make some adjustments to the car before the green flag waves on Sunday or it’s going to happen again. As far as history here at Watkins Glen, Logano has been very up and down. In 2009, 2011, and 2013, he finished 16th, 5th, and 7th, respectively; in 2010 and 2012 he ended up 33rd and 32nd. There’s no reasoning behind this but if that “odd year-even year” streak continues, fantasy owners could be very disappointed with the #22 come Sunday. 

12. Ryan Newman – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

We should all know by now what to expect out of Ryan Newman. He’s going to be one of the most consistent racers in the series–especially now that he’s basically points racing–but most weeks us fantasy racers aren’t satisfied with teens finishes out of our drivers, and that’s pretty much what you’re going to get out of Newman at a road course. He finished 11th at Sonoma earlier this year and has finished between there and 18th in eight of the nine last road course events (Sonoma and Watkins Glen combined). At The Glen specifically, Newman hasn’t posted a top 10 finish since the 2006 season, and I really don’t think that that will change on Sunday. The #31 Chevrolet ranked 8th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday before turning the 13th-best lap in Happy Hour. If this team has anything going their way right now it is momentum, as “The Rocketman” has ended up 11th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races. Again: consistent, consistent, consistent. Newman will be a safe pick for the Cheez-It 355 but there are a lot more options this week that will get you more points.

13. Clint Bowyer – Starts 24th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th (change: -9)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Well, the Chase is right around the corner and now is the time that Clint Bowyer generally pulls out his magic horseshoe and sneaks his way in. That’s what seems to happen every single year, and with seven finishes of 11th or better in the last nine Sprint Cup events, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. What’s unfortunate for Clint, however, is that it’s probably going to take a win this year. Impossible? No, but he’s never won at Watkins Glen and that probably won’t change on Sunday either. The #15 Toyota is another one of those cars that I don’t know what happened in qualifying on Saturday. Bowyer does have a somewhat-impressive 14.4 career average finish here at The Glen, though, and is entering Sunday’s Cheez-It 355 with back-to-back top 10s at this track. He finished 10th after starting 25th at Sonoma back in June and is running the same chassis this weekend. Here in New York, Bowyer was 14th in Practice #1 on Friday before rattling off the 6th-quickest lap in Happy Hour later that afternoon. He also had the third-best five-lap average in that final session. Since the beginning of 2012, no driver has been better on the road courses than Clint, as he has finishes of 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 10th on them. If he started a little closer to the front, I’d say he’s a solid top 10 fantasy option this weekend with the potential at a top 5 if things go right, but it’s pretty difficult to pass here so I’m tempering my expectations.

14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Back at Sonoma, Jamie McMurray won the pole and I basically wrote him off with a fluke qualifying run. I had him ranked 17th going into that race despite the awesome track position to start the race–and boy was I wrong. Jamie Mac came home with a solid 4th-place finish that day that still has me scratching my head a bit. You see, McMurray just isn’t that good on the road course tracks. In fact, that was his first top 10 at either Sonoma or Watkins Glen since the 2010 season, and only his second since the 2006 season. Maybe we’re seeing a trend here with a 4-year gap between top 10s for Jamie, who knows. Anyway, the #1 Chevrolet looked decent in practice this weekend at Watkins Glen and I took notice. McMurray was 15th-fastest on the speed chart in Practice #1 before posting the 9th-best lap in Happy Hour. There was an apparent power steering issue with the #1 Chevrolet in Happy Hour but it’s safe to assume that the team got that fixed. McMurray finished 11th here at Watkins Glen last season, and while I don’t think another top 5 is in the cards for him on Sunday, a solid top 10 isn’t out of the question, either.

15. Greg Biffle – Starts 28th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 20th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Biff’s top 5 run at Pocono was more luck than anything else, but if you were one of the few that picked him last week, go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Our focus lately has been on the Roush-Fenway engine struggles, but Biffle is actually putting up consistent finishes here as of late; in five of the last six Sprint Cup races the #16 Ford has ended up inside the top 15. The exception was his 29th-place run at Daytona. Obviously these aren’t the type of results we’ve come to expect out of Biffle, but it’s still consistent nonetheless. The #16 Ford was 19th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up 10th-quickest in Happy Hour. Looking back at Sonoma, Biffle wound up finishing 9th after starting 19th and has actually posted top 10s in four of the last five road course events (although it should be noted that three of those were at Sonoma). The only way I see Biffle even sniffing the top 5 this weekend is if his crew chief makes another great pit strategy call. Personally I won’t have Biffle on my rosters this week but he isn’t a terrible road course racer by any means. His starting position for the Cheez-It 355 (28th) is a definite negative, but that does make Greg a somewhat attractive option in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live.

The Next Ten:

16. Tony Stewart
17. Matt Kenseth
18. Brian Vickers
19. Casey Mears
20. Kyle Larson
21. Kasey Kahne
22. Martin Truex, Jr.
23. Paul Menard
24. Justin Allgaier
25. Austin Dillon

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