Michigan 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Pure Michigan 400

Johnson Struggling, Gordon Still Fast

Michigan International Speedway was repaved before the 2012 season and is now the fastest track on the circuit. So, when we’re looking at who to pick in fantasy, those with the strongest engines definitely have an advantage. However, races here often come down to fuel mileage events as well, so that opens the door for sleepers to get a good finish. It also benefits the drivers that get good gas mileage (specifically Penske). We raced here in June, and it should be noted that all of the top 10 finishers started inside the top 15. Is track position that important here? I wouldn’t say it’s overly important, but it still counts. If you have a good car, though, Michigan is wide and big enough to make your way through the field. Jeff Gordon has the best track position to start the Pure Michigan 400, as he won the pole on Friday. Click here for the full starting lineup. There were then two practice sessions on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to read Ryan’s extensive notes for each: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Pure Michigan 400:

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11. Ryan Newman – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th (change: +4)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

“The Rocketman” typically races better than he practices, and with how optimistic Newman sounded about his car in Happy Hour, I think that’s going to be the case once again this weekend in the Pure Michigan 400. The #31 Chevrolet was 25th-fastest in Practice #2 but Ryan picked it up in Happy Hour and ended up 12th on the speed chart. He was 15th out of 17 cars on the ten-lap average chart in that final session, but that could possibly be explained by him running those laps later on in the session. Newman qualified 12th and should be an 8th to 13th place car all day long. Remember, this team is points racing right now to hopefully get in the Chase so they’re not going  to do anything stupid. In the five races since the repave, Newman has one top 10 (8th in the August 2012 race) and he has ended up 13th and 15th in his last two attempts here. What gave him a little bump in my rankings is the fact that his Richard Childress Racing teammates look like they have top 10 speed going into Sunday and Newman should be right there as well.

12. Brian Vickers – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: N/A)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Back here in the June race, Brian Vickers started 10th and disappointed fantasy owners everywhere when he hit the wall and ended up finishing 42nd. I had him ranked 13th after practice that weekend. So, we really don’t know what to expect out of the #55 this time around because that was Brian’s only attempt here on the “new” Michigan. He was very good here before the repavement, and had a six-race streak of top 10s while with Red Bull Racing from 2007 to 2011. This weekend, Vickers qualified 4th on Friday and was decent during the practice sessions on Saturday, posting the 16th-fastest lap in Practice #2 and the 15th-quickest in Happy Hour. I didn’t have him ranked in my Pre-Practice Top 20, but the qualifying effort definitely made me take notice, as we all saw how important track position was here at Michigan in the last race. Looking way back at Fontana this season–another 2-mile race track–Vickers finished 7th, so that’s promising. Based on track position alone I think we’re looking at a top 15 finish out of the #55 team on Sunday as long as the driver can keep it off the wall. 

13. Kasey Kahne – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th (change: -5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I had pretty high hopes for Kasey Kahne coming into this weekend, as I had him ranked 8th before practice and qualifying. However, from what I’ve been able to tell, the #5 Chevrolet has been just average all weekend and not what you’d expect out of a Hendrick-powered car. Kasey will roll off the grid in 15th when the green flag waves on this year’s Pure Michigan 400, and he put down the 24th-best lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. He picked it up to 20th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 14th-best ten-lap average (out of 17 cars). Since the repave here at Michigan, Kahne has three finishes of 7th or better along with two results outside of the top 30 (typical for him). Momentum-wise, however, Kasey in a roll with four straight finishes of 12th or better in Sprint Cup action. I lowered him down to a “Medium Risk” this week based on the previous two statistics, but we all saw how that worked out when I put Kyle Busch as Low Risk last week at Watkins Glen. Assuming nothing goes wrong, expect a solid top 15 run out of the #5 team on Sunday with an outside shot at a top 10 with some strategy.

14. Austin Dillon – Starts 8th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

It’s time to give some credit to Austin Dillon, who has quietly put together the 3rd-best average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races. Yeah, I didn’t really believe it either. Looking further, let’s analyze what this team has done since the last Michigan race in June. Austin finished 30th in that race but should have had at least a top 15 result if not for a flat tire late in the race. Hey, those things happen. He went on to finish 17th at Sonoma the following week and hasn’t looked back since, ending up 16th or better in every Cup event since, including his 5th-place run at Daytona and 10th-place finish at Indianapolis. Austin Dillon is one of those drivers that isn’t really flashy, but he hits his marks and is just consistent. This is why he’s been so consistent and getting solid finishes lately (for a rookie). Now, this weekend at Michigan, the #3 Chevrolet is showing more speed than normal, and I’ve definitely taken notice. I think this is the first time Dillon has been in my top 15 after practice this year. He’ll roll off the grid in 8th for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 and should be at least a top 15 fantasy option. Remember, Austin Dillon ended up 11th here last season in the June race (running for Circle Sport–even more impressive) and finished 14th in the fall while running Tony Stewart’s car. The #3 Chevrolet was 21st-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but picked it up to 7th in Happy Hour later that afternoon. He had the 11th-best ten-lap average during that final session.

15. Kurt Busch – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Kurt Busch isn’t overly happy with his car this weekend (no surprise there) but he put down some consistent laps in practice on Saturday, so he’s going to round out my top 15 heading into the Pure Michigan 400. The #41 Chevrolet was 2nd-fastest on the speed chart in Practice #2 and ended up with the 10th-best lap in Happy Hour (as well as the 10th-fastest ten-lap average). Busch has a strong Hendrick engine under his hood, too, so that should help him here at NASCAR’s fastest race track. Kurt wasn’t very good here with Phoenix Racing or Furniture Row (three finishes of 30th or worse) but he ended up 3rd in this event last season and finished 13th here in June. Momentum-wise only two drivers have a better average finish than Busch over the last six Sprint Cup races (Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kasey Kahne). I don’t see enough speed out of this #41 Chevrolet to give Kurt much consideration in any fantasy leagues this weekend, however.

The Next Ten:

16. Clint Bowyer
17. Matt Kenseth
18. Jamie McMurray
19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
20. Kyle Busch
21. Denny Hamlin
22. Danica Patrick
23. Marcos Ambrose
24. A.J. Allmendinger
25. Aric Almirola

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