Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jeff Gordon Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Analysis – Jeff Gordon is a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the Pure Michigan 400. On Sunday he’ll be starting on the pole for his sixth time at Michigan. 18.8% percent of all MIS races have been won from this starting position. This week Jeff Gordon has a good car underneath him, it’s his Indy car. In my opinion cars from Indy are often the best in the fleet for teams because their built with a lot of down force. At Michigan he’s had a lot of success in his career. He’s only won twice but you can’t overlook his record eight runner-up finishes. One feat he should accomplish on Sunday is being the first active driver who’s led 1,000 laps at Michigan. Currently he’s led 990 laps. An intangible you have to like about him is his momentum. For the last couple of weeks regardless of where he’s finished the #24 has been the best car on the track. Right now Jeff Gordon is very confident with his car and you should be confident in him as well. On Friday in practice he stayed in race trim for nearly the entire session and said he had good balance. In final practice his car was very quick. In Happy Hour he had the best 10 lap average.
Starting Position – 1st
Track History – Jeff Gordon has been competitive at Michigan. He’s a two-time winner who’s finished in the top five 42% percent of the time and in the top ten 60% percent of the time. His overall Michigan average finish is 12.3. In June he performed well. He finished 6th, had an 8th place average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 36 laps. His strength in the event was being good over long runs. Last August at MIS Jeff Gordon wasn’t competitive. He started 13th, had a 17th place average running position and finished 17th. In the race Jeff Gordon was at his worst in the last quarter of the race. Last June Jeff Gordon had a short race. On lap #6 while he was racing Bobby Labonte for 22nd the #47 car got loose, spun, and collected Jeff Gordon. In a post wreck interview Gordon said that he had a good car and thought he would be able to fight his way up through traffic. In 2012 Gordon was good in both races. In August 2012 he had a top ten car but on lap #94 he lost a cylinder which effectively ended his day. In the inaugural race on the new surface he started in 28th and finished 6th.
Similar Track Performances – This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Jeff Gordon has been the safest pick. On this track type he’s scored the most points and has only finished outside the top ten once. His one finish outside the top ten was a 13th place finish at Auto Club Speedway and he was a lock to win that race if the late caution didn’t come out. Also on these venues in 2014 he has a 6.3 average finish, 7.3 average running position and has led 116 laps. I consider Kansas a mini-Michigan and at that venue earlier this season he went to victory lane.
Odds To Win – 7/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jeff Gordon will be driving the chassis he drove to victory lane at Indy.
Momentum – Jeff Gordon has been very strong on the track recently. Over the last three races he’s arguably had the strongest car. This season on the track as long as he’s avoided problems he’s consistently finished in the top ten.

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2. Kevin Harvick Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Analysis – Kevin Harvick is a driver who you can be confident about picking in the Pure Michigan 400. Currently at this 2.0 mile oval he has three consecutive runner-up finishes. Also in the 5 combined races on the new surface he has a series best 6.4 average finish. Another factor you have to like about him is his 6th place starting position. 75.5% percent of all Michigan races have been won from a driver starting in the top ten. Right now this team has as much momentum as it’s had all season long and on Sunday they’ll be going for their 4th straight top ten. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks the case could be made he’s had the strongest car but all too often something bad has neglected a good result for him. In June at Michigan Harvick finished 2nd but if his late pit strategy would’ve worked I thought he would’ve won the race. On Friday in practice Harvick started with a 5 lap run and said his car feels really good. In final practice he was happy with his handling. His ten lap average in that session ranked as the 3rd quickest.
Starting Position – 6th
Track History – Recently at Michigan Kevin Harvick has been very good. Currently at MIS he has three consecutive runner-up finishes. Over these three races he has the 2nd best driver rating and the 2nd best average running position (6.7). In June he had a very strong car and earned the best driver rating and the best PROS Ranking. In the event he started on the pole, had a 4th place average running position and led the most laps. I think he likely would’ve won the race but he was beat on pit strategy at the end. In the race his car was strong over both long runs and short runs. In last August’s race Harvick had a 6th place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In June 2013 he finished second to Greg Biffle. In that race I wouldn’t say he was 2nd place good because he had a 10th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. In August 2010 Harvick got his only career win at Michigan.
Similar Track Performances – This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Kevin Harvick has frequently been one of the drivers to beat. Unfortunately he’s also had more than his fair share of difficulties. Performance wise he’s been good enough to win at least three races on this track type. In his problem free races in 2014 he’s had results of 2nd (Kansas), 2nd (Charlotte), 2nd (Michigan) and 7th (Kentucky). In his three second place finishes he arguably had the best car but was beat by pit strategy at the end.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been released.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick now has three consecutive top tens. That matches his longest top ten streak of the season. Over these three races he he’s scored the 2nd most points, has the 2nd best driver rating and has a 5.7 average running position.

Recommended Reading – Post Happy Hour Predictions (another post Happy Hour take), Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Qualifying Results, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report, Who will win at Michigan

3. Joey Logano Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Analysis – When it comes to high-speed intermediate tracks I love Joey Logano. Basically all season long he’s been my go to guy at these venues. Entering the race he was my #1 Top Tier Elite driver. In the race I expect Joey Logano to be very competitive and be one of the drivers to beat. From his 2nd place starting position he should be a driver who stays out front all race long. In practice #2 Logano said he had a good car and he seemed optimistic about his chances. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 13th best. I wished it ranked higher but I still have a lot of confidence in him.
Starting Position – 2nd
Track History – Since being a member of Penske Racing Joey Logano has been very good. Over his three races with the organization he has the best driver rating, a 5.3 average running position, 6.3 average finish, led the most laps (101) and has finished in the top ten every race. In this particular event Joey Logano is the defending champion. Last year in this race he won from the pole, earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 51 laps. For nearly the entire race he ran in the top five. This June he had a solid performance. He finished 9th, had a 6th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 29 laps. In that event he ran better than his result. He was a top five performer but his pit strategy near the end cost him a few positions. Last June he also finished 9th. In that event he had a 6th place average running position, led 21 laps, earned and earned the 4th best driver rating. Overall at Michigan he’s finished in the top ten 55% percent of the time.
Similar Track Performances – Joey Logano has been very strong on high-speed intermediate tracks this season. On this track type minus Auto Club Speedway (problems) he’s ranked as one of the best drivers in the series. In these 6 select races he has a 6.5 average finish, 5.7 average running position, ran the highest percentage of laps inside the top fifteen and has the second best driver rating. Also over these races he’s only finished outside the top ten once and that was a 12th place finish at Charlotte.
Odds To Win – 10/1
Chassis Selection – It’s shown that he’s racing his Dover chassis. I find that questionable since he also supposedly drove that chassis at Watkins Glen.
Momentum – Joey Logano currently has three consecutive top tens. At no other point this season has he had more consecutive top tens. Over this short stretch of events he has a 4.7 average finish.