Atlanta Oral B USA 500 Fantasy NASCAR Ranking Picks / Predictions

“I need four”

Atlanta will be a race of comers and goers. Tire drop off will be dramatic and every chance drivers get to come down pit road they’ll be getting four fresh tires. Because of the tire drop off element pit strategy will be minimized which ensures the best cars should finish near the front if they can avoid attrition. As always make sure you read all of our in-depth notes from both Practice #2 and Happy Hour. Also make sure you check out the speeds from Practice #2 and Happy Hour. Another fantasy tool I would like to point to your attention is our 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet. It helps you find out who was good across the practice sessions. Qualifying is important here so make sure you check out the Qualifying Results /Starting Lineup for Sunday nights race.

Also in case you weren’t aware ifantasyrace.com will be hosting it’s first site wide fantasy game in the Chase. Make sure you read the details of the ifantasyrace.com Chase Challenge. It will be a lot of fun so get ready for the bracketing busting action.

Also this will be a combined Confidence Ranking Picks  / Post Practice Predictions post so sorry if it causes you an inconvenience. Regular posts will resume as normal next week.

1. Jeff Gordon Atlanta Oral B USA 500 Fantasy Analysis – Jeff Gordon is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Atlanta Oral B USA 500. He’s been bringing his A+ game on a weekly basis over the last month and a half and on Sunday I think he’ll once again be one of the drivers to beat. One notable strength about Jeff Gordon all season long is that his car has been set up for comfort to be good over long runs. That attribute will be huge on Sunday night. Another factor you have to like about him is that he doesn’t abuse his equipment. Some drivers will burn off their tires in ten laps, but I don’t think he’ll be one of them. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Gordon has been very strong and has scored the most points. At Atlanta Gordon has been close to money in the bank. His last three results here are 6th, 2nd and 1st. In practice Jeff Gordon’s car looked very good on the stop watch. In practice #2 over his opening 15 lap run he probably had the fastest car on the track. In both practice #2 and Happy Hour his ten lap average speed ranked as the best.
Starting Position – 9th
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Jeff Gordon has had a phenomenal career at Atlanta. He’s raced here 40 times and has won five races. Also let’s not overlook his five runner up finishes. That means he’s finished either first or second 25% percent of the time. His top ten percentage is 65% percent. In 73% percent of his starts he’s come home with a finish in the top fifteen. In the last fourteen Atlanta races he has the best driver rating, best average finish (6.8), best average running position (7.6) and has run the highest percentage of laps inside the top fifteen. Last year he was very impressive. He earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 6th and led 17 laps. In 2012 he was also very good and finished runner-up. Additionally in that race he earned the 4th best driver rating and could’ve potentially won if he would’ve got aggressive on Hamlin during the final restart. In 2011 in the day time heat he put on a driving clinic slip sliding his way to victory lane leading 146 laps on the way.
Similar Track Performances – This season on 1.5 mile tracks he’s been the most successful driver in the series. At 1.5 mile tracks he has 1 win, scored the most points, has a 5.0 average finish and is one of only two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Also in the combined races at these venues he has the 3rd best driver rating and a 7.2 average finish. Texas is the single most similar track to Atlanta and at that venue he finished 2nd and led 40 laps. From a tire wear perspective Auto Club Speedway is probably the most similar track and at that venue in March he looked like a lock to win if the final caution didn’t come out.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – Jeff Gordon is using a very capable proven chassis. At high-speed intermediate tracks this season it’s recorded finishes of 6th (Michigan #1), 7th (Charlotte) and 13th (Auto Club).
Momentum – Bristol was the first race since Indy that he didn’t have the best car. Over the last six races combined Jeff Gordon has the best driver rating.

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2. Kevin Harvick Atlanta Oral B USA 500 Fantasy Analysis – Kevin Harvick will be strong in the Atlanta Oral B USA 500 and he’s a driver you can count on contending for the win. There’s a lot of intangibles you have to like about him this week. Perhaps most importantly is that he’s been a fantasy stud on 1.5 mile tracks and has been a contender to win nearly all of them this season. At two of the last three 1.5 mile tracks visited he should’ve won. Another intangible that needs to be noted is that he’s building up momentum and has finally found consistency. That means the likelihood of him burning you for picking him has been reduced. The last intangible you really have to like about him is that he’s been very strong at Atlanta. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will start on the pole. 13.2% percent of all Atlanta races have been won from that starting position. In the practice sessions this weekend the #4 has been fast. On Friday in practice his ten lap average ranked as the 5th best. In practice #2 it ranked as the second best. Over about 15 laps into a run probably the only driver who was quicker than him was Jeff Gordon. In Happy Hour he was pleased with his car at the end of the session and his ten lap average ranked as the 13th best.
Starting Position – 1st
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Kevin Harvick has arguably been the best driver at Atlanta over the last few races. Since 2009 minus tire vibrations in 2010 he has a 6.4 average finish. Consistency to that extent is an attribute people should be looking for in a fantasy NASCAR pick. Last season he had a good performance. He started deep in the field in 30th and drove up to a 9th place finish. Also in the race he earned the 5th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2012 he likely had the best car at Atlanta. In that race he started mid pack in 24th and drove up to the lead on lap 135. In that event he led 101 laps, earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place running position. His chance of winning that race went away when he lost the lead off pit road and never appeared as strong. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th. In 2011 he finished 7th. In 2001 in just his 3rd career start he inched Jeff Gordon to the finish line and won his first career race.
Similar Track Performances – This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Kevin Harvick has arguably been the best driver in the series. He’s had quite a few problems but he’s been stellar. On 1.5 mile tracks specifically he’s looked like a serious contender in 4 of them. In two of them he absolutely should’ve won but he lost the race on pit road during his final pit stop (Charlotte and Kansas).
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – This week Kevin Harvick will be driving his Indy chassis. In August at that venue he finished 8th.
Momentum – This team has been building consistency. Over the last five races he’s scored the second most points and has a 6.0 average finish.

3. Brad Keselowski Atlanta Oral B USA 500 Fantasy Analysis – I think this team is now priming up for a Chase run. This week their bringing out a new chassis and that’s typically been a good omen to pick him. His car is also quick and he seems fairly happy with it. Speed wise he’s been a little lower on the charts than normal but I’m sure this team has some sort of game plan. Starting with good track position is important at Atlanta and on Sunday he’ll take the green flag in 2nd. This race has been won from that starting position 11.3% percent of the time. Two key attributes I really like about Keselowski this week is how well he’s performed at Atlanta in his career and how strong he’s been on 1.5 mile tracks this year. When you combine those two attributes with how he’s looking this weekend you can count on him contending for the win.
Starting Position – 2nd
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Atlanta has been a great track for Brad Keselowski. Last year his car was exceptionally strong and could’ve perhaps been the strongest in the field. His race wasn’t incident free so unfortunately we’ll never know. He started in 23rd and raced his way into the top ten in just the first 30 laps. For much of the evening he ran in the top five. In the race he led 29 laps and while he was leading around lap 240 his engine blew up. In 2012 he also had a good Atlanta race. In that event he finished 3rd, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In 2011 he finished 6th and earned the 6th best driver rating. In his first race here in 2010 he was going to finish in the top ten but Carl Edwards sent him flying into the fence.
Similar Track Performances – This season on 1.5 mile tracks Brad Keselowski has been very strong and has been one of the drivers to beat. On tracks of this length he has 2 wins, the best driver rating, best average running position, led the most laps, ran the highest total number of fastest laps and has scored the 3rd most points. He would likely have scored the most points except at Texas which I view as the most similar track he got a late speeding penalty while running in 2nd. Additionally at Texas he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 85 laps. At the last 1.5 mile track visited he dominated the event leading 199 laps and earning a perfect driver rating.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Brad Keselowski will be driving a new chassis.
Momentum – This team now has back to back top tens and is fresh off a second place finish at Bristol.