Dover AAA 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Picks / Predictions

Who will conquer the Monster Mile?

The Dover AAA 400 will be an action packed race as drivers attempt to conquer the Monster Mile and keep their Chase hopes alive. Desperate drivers do desperate things and with 8 drivers separated by 12 points this will be a must watch event. Starting up front is important at Dover. This race has been won from a top ten starting position 78.6% percent of the time. That said make sure you check out the Dover AAA 400 starting lineup. Practice is also important so make sure you also read all of our practice notes (Practice #1 Notes, Practice #2 Notes and Happy Hour Notes). Long runs will separate the contenders from the pretenders so check out the practice speeds (Practice #1 Speeds, Practice #2 Speed and Happy Hour Speeds). One tool I would also highly recommend you check out is our 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet. It shows you who’s been good across all the practice sessions. Also I would like note this article is a combined Confidence Ranking Picks / Post Practice Predictions post. Regular posts will resume next week so thank you for understanding.

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1) Jimmie Johnson Dover Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Jimmie Johnson is a driver who you can be confident making your fantasy NASCAR pick for the Dover AAA 400. Johnson has a lot of good tracks, but Dover is his best. On Sunday he’ll be vying for his 10th win at the Monster Mile. If he wins it will be the first time a driver has had double digit wins at a track since Dale Earnhardt Sr. won his final race at Talladega in 2000. Since Johnson has been on the scene at Dover he’s been in a class of his own. In every important statistical category you’ll find him ranked at the top of the list. In practice Johnson has been very fast. He likes his car and Chad Knaus has liked his lap times. At the end of Happy Hour Johnson said, “We’re getting there boys, thank you for working so hard.” In final practice Johnson’s ten lap average ranked as the 8th best.
Starting Position – 8th
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Jimmie Johnson is a legend at Dover. Out of all the tracks on the schedule Dover is the venue he’s been the most dominant. He’s conquered the Monster Mile a record nine times and has led 143 laps plus in 10 of the last 11 races. Also at Dover he’s finished in the top five 52% percent of the time and in the top ten 72% percent of the time. Recently at Dover Jimmie Johnson has been very strong and if races played out more favorably for him he could potentially have five straight wins. Currently Johnson has back to back wins. This spring his car was very impressive and the only driver who had anything for him was Kevin Harvick. In the event he had the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 272 laps. Last fall he almost had a parallel performance. In that race he once again won, had a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 243 laps. In spring 2013 at Dover he should’ve won the race but he jumped a late restart and got penalized. In that race his car was off early but once it got tuned to his liking he was in a class of his own. In that event he led 143 laps and finished 17th. In fall 2012 the race came down to fuel mileage so he had to race conservative at the end and finished 4th. In spring 2012 he dominated the race finishing first and leading 289 laps. His next three most recent finishes are 2nd, 9th and 1st.
Odds To Win – 4/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be piloting a new chassis.
Momentum – Since Michigan Jimmie Johnson has scored the 4th most points, has a 7.0 average finish and hasn’t had a result worse than 12th. One area of interest is that he hasn’t lead any laps in the last 5 races. Over the last 12 races he’s only led twice for a combined 27 laps.

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2) Kevin Harvick Dover Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – I think Kevin Harvick has the best car this week. That said he’s failed to close the deal many times when that’s been the case. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will start on the pole. This race has been won from that starting position 14.6% percent of the time. With the way he’s looking this weekend Jimmie Johnson will have his hands full trying to get his 10th win. There’s a lot of reasons that point towards Harvick being a good fantasy NASCAR pick. Perhaps the most important is that he was very good this spring until he had a flat while leading. Also in many of the other recent Dover races he’s performed quite well. Prior to the event this spring he finished in the top ten in five of the last six races. One of the intangibles I really like about this team is its momentum. I think Kevin Harvick likes his car this weekend. In both practice sessions on Saturday his ten lap average ranked as the best.
Starting Position – 1st
Risk Level – Low
Track History – In June Kevin Harvick was very competitive. In the event he could’ve arguably had the best car. Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 165 while leading he suddenly came down pit road for a flat tire. Prior to his problem he led 24 laps and passed Jimmie Johnson under green. Due to his issue he finished 17th. Prior to that event he’s performed very well at Dover. Between 2011 and 2013 he had the 5th best driver rating, an 8.2 average finish and a 9.5 average running position. Also in the six races over that stretch he had five top tens and a worst result of 13th. Last fall he looked like a 10th to 15th place driver in the first 3/4ths of the race but in the last quarter he got up on the wheel and drove the 29 car to a 6th place finish. In spring 2013 he finished 8th and had a 7th place average running position. In fall 2012 his likely had top ten potential but in that event he got burned by an early caution that put him down a few laps. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th. His next three Dover results prior to that event were 2nd, 10th and 10th.
Odds To Win – 6/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be piloting the chassis he drove to victory lane earlier this season at Darlington.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick has been pretty close to money in the bank over the last two months. Since Indy he’s scored the second most points, has the second best driver rating and a 6.9 average finish. He’s only finished worse than 11th once over this stretch and that was at Atlanta where he dominated the race. Currently Harvick has three consecutive top five finishes.

Further Recommended Reading – Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Pit Stall Assignments, Who will win at Dover? , Odds To Win, Chassis Selections

3. Brad Keselowksi Dover Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Brad Keselowski will be one of the drivers to beat in the Dover AAA 400. No matter what venue the series visits he’s proven he can be a contender. One advantage he has on much of the field this week is that he can afford to gamble because his Chase position in the next round is already secured. That could also potentially come back to bite you because last week he made some foolish decisions at New Hampshire. At the Monster Mile Keselowski has experienced some recent success. He’s a past champion and this spring he finished 2nd despite being off in the middle of the event. In practice this weekend Keselowski has been fast. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. In Happy Hour their ten lap average ranked as the 5th best.
Starting Position – 4th
Risk Level – Low
Track History – Recently at Dover Brad Keselowski has been very successful. In three of the last four races he’s finished in the top five. This June he had a strong car. He finished 2nd and had earned the 3rd best driver rating. In the middle of the race he was off but in the last quarter of the event he consistently ran in the top five. Last fall at Dover he had his worst result to date. On lap 226 he was running in 12th but he came to pit road because he was leaking fluid. Right after that he went straight to the garage area. When the checkered flag waved he finished 45 laps down in 37th. In spring 2013 he had a competitive afternoon. In that race he finished 5th, had the 7th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In fall 2012 the race came down to fuel mileage and Keselowski had enough to go the distance and emerged victorious. Based on outright speed in that race he likely had around a 5th place car.
Odds To Win – 5/1
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Brad Keselowski will be driving his 12th place Indy chassis.
Momentum – This team has been very good recently. Since Michigan minus his Atlanta wreck he’s finished in the top ten every race and has a 3.8 average finish.