Kansas 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Hollywood Casino 400

It’s Time to Live up to the Nickname

Kansas Speedway was repaved in the middle of the 2012 season. We’ve now had four Sprint Cup races on the “new” surface, so that gives us plenty of data to work this weekend. Also, we raced here back in May. Kevin Harvick had the dominating car that day but fell short once again. Jeff Gordon won. Harvick once again won the pole for this weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. The results of the practice sessions on Saturday can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, here’s the notes for each practice: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Hollywood Casino 400:

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11. Aric Almirola – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 20th (change: +9)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Kansas Speedway is Aric Almirola’s best track on the circuit and he’s been one of the better picks here since the repave. In the first race on the new surface, Almirola started 5th and by lap 6 was already in the lead and pulling away from the field. He led 69 laps that day and looked poised to get his first Sprint Cup victory but blown tires ended Aric’s day early. In the three races at this track since he has finished 8th, 10th, and 8th. This weekend, Almirola qualified 3rd–his best starting spot here thus far–and was 10th-fastest in Practice #2 with the 4th-best five-lap average. In Happy Hour, this team only ran 17 laps and the driver said, “I’d race that no problem.” Sounds like a satisfied team to me. When it comes to sleeper picks this weekend, Aric Almirola is probably your best bet. In allocation leagues like Yahoo!, you need good runs from guys like this at this point of the season. Hopefully Almirola can bring it home this weekend because I’m starting him on my team.

12. Jamie McMurray – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Boy did this guy lay an egg last weekend. I guess that’s why you call them sleeper picks, but man was that a disappointment. On a positive note, that’s going to cause some fantasy racers to stay away from McMurray this weekend, which in turn allows people like us to cash in on (hopefully) a good run. Both of the Ganassi drivers were solid in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, with Jamie posting the 2nd-best lap and running a whole bunch of laps (over 40). When I see that happening, I tend to think that the team really likes their race car and are just working on fine tuning it. McMurray had the best ten-lap average and 2nd-best five-lap average in that session. Later in the day, during Happy Hour, the #1 Chevrolet was 18th-quickest and had the 8th-fastest ten-lap average. Back here in May, McMurray was running 4th before a mechanical issue sent him into the wall, relegating him to a 39th-place finish. In the three other races on the repaved Kansas Speedway, he finished 15th, 7th, and 16th. I might be overly optimistic but I think Jamie has top 10 potential again this weekend.

13. Carl Edwards – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I wanted to be high on Carl Edwards this weekend because of his record here at Kansas Speedway–14 career starts, 10 top 10s, 5 top 5s–but right now we’re talking about the 2014 Carl Edwards and #99 team. Honestly, I think the entire Roush-Fenway organization has called it a season and are looking toward 2015. For fantasy owners, however, I hope that that isn’t the case. Edwards had decent speed in Practice #2 on Saturday, ending up 4th-fastest on the speed chart. As usual, they just did a bunch of short runs so we really have no idea what kind of car they have for Sunday. In Happy Hour, Carl was 11th on the board. He eeked out a 6th-place finish when we ran here back in May, but I simply can’t trust Cousin Carl when he doesn’t start in the top 5 (and even then I’m leery). The ceiling is right around 10th for this #99 team on Sunday, which honestly has been the case for a while now.

14. Tony Stewart – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Typically when Tony Stewart qualifies well, he races well. However, these past two seasons for Smoke have been anything but typical. Tony Stewart is a two-time winner at Kansas Speedway with the most recent coming in 2009. He finished 5th in his first attempt on the “new” Kansas (after the repave) but has only been able to muster finishes of 21st and 20th in his two trips here since. The #14 Chevrolet was 23rd on the speed chart in Happy Hour after ending up 22nd in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. Momentum-wise, Smoke has three mid-teen finishes in the last four Sprint Cup events and that’s right around where he should be on Sunday as well. Personally, I think there are many other fantasy picks that would be better than Tony Stewart this weekend but I can understand if people get caught up in his qualifying effort.

15. Matt Kenseth – Starts 27th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th (change: -9)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I don’t even know what to think of this #20 team this weekend. To be quite blunt, they looked absolutely lost on Friday and Saturday. I thought maybe Friday was a fluke but they made no improvements whatsoever during the two practice sessions the next day either. Kenseth will roll off the grid in 27th, and unless the #20 team completely overhauls the setup between now and the race, he’s probably going to be lapped quite quickly. Kenseth was 27th-fastest in Practice #2 and could only muster the 25th-best lap in Happy Hour. I don’t know how much sharing these teams are doing now since the Chase is on, but the other Gibbs cars have speed so Kenseth should probably look into what they’re doing. Looking at the stats, Kansas has been a great track for Matt, as he has two victories here and hasn’t finished worse than 11th here since the 2009 race. This team has a lot of work to do if they’re going to keep that streak alive…

The Next Ten:

16. Clint Bowyer
17. Denny Hamlin
18. Martin Truex, Jr.
19. Greg Biffle
20. Paul Menard
21. Austin Dillon
22. Brian Vickers
23. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
24. A.J. Allmendinger
25. Marcos Ambrose

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