Talladega Geico 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Denny Hamlin Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Denny Hamlin is a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the Talladega Geico 500. He’s in the Chase solely because of his win this spring at Talladega. On restrictor plate tracks this season nobody has performed better than him. In the combined races at these venues he’s scored the most points, has the best driver rating, has a 3.0 average finish and is the only driver who’s finished in the top ten every race. In the non-points paying races this season at plate tracks he’s 2 for 2 in terms of going to victory lane. Every year in NASCAR there’s a driver that dominates at restrictor plate tracks and right now that appears to be Denny Hamlin.
Starting Position – 38th
Track History – At Talladega in May Denny Hamlin raced his way to victory lane after starting in 34th. Also in the race he had a 9th place average running position, led 12 laps and earned the best driver rating. In the closing laps Denny Hamlin was a consistent front runner and over the final 30 laps he ran in either 1st or 2nd. Over the final few laps him and Harvick swapped the lead back and forth but with two laps to go he got the lead for good and never looked back. In other recent Talladega races Hamlin’s lacked success. Last fall he completed 142 laps but his engine couldn’t go the distance. Last spring Talladega was his first race back from injury and he only raced until the first caution and then got out of his car. In 2012 he had results of 14th and 23rd.
Similar Track Performances – Denny Hamlin was impressive at Daytona this season. In February he won the Shootout, his Duel 150 and finished 2nd in the Daytona 500. In July he finished 6th. Between the two races he’s one of just three drivers who swept the top ten.
Momentum – Denny Hamlin has performed well recently. In the Chase minus his New Hampshire wreck he has an 8.5 average result and hasn’t finished worse than 12th.
Chassis Selection – Joe Gibbs Racing doesn’t provide chassis selection information.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 12/1

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2) Kevin Harvick Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Kevin Harvick is unquestionably one of the best restrictor plate drivers in NASCAR. At these venues he’s extremely smart about how he maneuvers himself in the draft and he has a knack at finishing near the front. One intangible you have to like about Harvick is that he has nothing to lose on Sunday and his motivation is to eliminate his competitors. One aspect that should be noted about him on this track type is that he prefers to run near the back in the early portions of plate races.
Starting Position – 39th
Track History – Earlier this season at Talladega Kevin Harvick was very strong. Over the final 70 laps he was a driver who consistently drove in the top five. In the closing segments of the race the lead was traded back and forth between him and Hamlin. Over the final 21 laps he led 15 of them and Hamlin led 6 of them. He last led on lap 186 but then Hamlin led the final two. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th. Last fall at Talladega he ran near the back for much of the race and finished 12th. The race had few cautions and took on a single file complexion at the end so his strategy played to his disadvantage. In May 2013 he was a driver who got taken out when Kyle Busch bump drafted Kasey Kahne. In fall 2012 he was poised to finish in the top five but he wrecked in the Tony Stewart “blocking big one”. In 2010 at Talladega he earned his only victory here when he drag raced Jamie McMurray to the finish line and beat him by inches.
Similar Track Performances – Daytona has been volatile to Kevin Harvick recently. In the last five races he has one top ten and a 24.0 average finish.
Momentum –This team has been extremely strong and is entering the race fresh off his win at Charlotte. If he would’ve avoided minor trouble at Dover and Kansas then he would likely have 6 straight top five results.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be driving the chassis he used earlier this year at Talladega and finished 7th with.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 12/1

Further Recommended Reading – Talladega Dark Horse Sleeper Picks, Talladega Practice #1 Notes, Talladega Practice #1 Speeds, Talladega Happy Hour Notes, Talladega Happy Hour Speeds, Talladega Scouting Report, PROS Rankings

3) Clint Bowyer Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Remember him? He’s a pretty good restrictor plate driver and on Sunday he has absolutely nothing to lose in the Talladega Geico 500. In terms of pure drafting track talent Bowyer is one of the best in the business. At these venues he typically runs near the back for the three-quarters of the race until he makes his move to the front in the last quarter. He used that strategy this spring and parlayed it into a 3rd place finish. If it wasn’t for late incidents in races Bowyer would likely have 9 straight top tens at Talladega. You can’t say that about anybody else.
Starting Position – 33rd
Track History – Talladega has been a great track for Clint Bowyer. In 7 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top ten. His two results outside the top ten deserve an asterisk mark because in both of those races he was running near the front when he had problems. In his 2012, 23rd place finish he was the leader during the Green-White-Checker but he got shuffled from the lead late when Kenseth came down the track on him and then got collected in the “Stewart blocking big one”. In his spring 2013, 18th place finish he was in a front breakaway pack that was driving away from the field near the end but a caution came out that regrouped the pack and then he was caught up in “The Big One”. This spring at Talladega he ran near the back for much of the race and started making his move to the front with 40 laps to go. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd. Last fall he finished 10th. Bowyer has two wins at Talladega and they came in fall 2011 and fall 2010. In the fall Talladega races since 2007 Bowyer has a 9.0 average finish.
Similar Track Performances – Clint Bowyer has performed well at Daytona recently. In three of the last four races he’s finished in the top 11. His one result outside of that range was due to an engine failure in this year’s Daytona 500.
Momentum – Clint Bowyer has no real momentum to speak of. He’s coming off a 43rd place finish at Charlotte. In the last 7 races he has two top tens, two results in the teens and three results of 38th or worse.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Clint Bowyer will be driving the chassis he drove at Daytona in July and finished 9th with.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 25/1