Martinsville 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Playing Spoiler
This week’s race at Martinsville kicks off the Eliminator Round of the Chase. If a driver still in championship contention wins here on Sunday, they will automatically advance and be eligible for the title at Homestead. Four Chasers have won here before–Jeff Gordon (8), Denny Hamlin (4), Ryan Newman (1), and Kevin Harvick (1)–while the other four (Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Carl Edwards) have yet to find victory lane at this half-mile race track. Non-Chaser Jamie McMurray spoiled the party on Friday by winning the pole for this year’s Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. We had a typical weekend as far as the schedule goes, and the results of Saturday’s practice sessions are here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Be sure to check out our notes for each practice as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
[box type=”tick” border=”full”]Don’t lose your league championship due to bad advice. We’re here to help! Click here for more information on how to join and get the full ifantasyrace advantage.[/box]
Final Top 15 Ranking For The Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
In most leagues is it even worth it to put Dale Earnhardt, Jr. on your fantasy teams anymore? This team was doing so well in the first half of the season that I thought they would have a legitimate shot at the championship, but since their win at Pocono in August things just haven’t been the same. The #88 Chevrolet has had plenty of speed most weeks, don’t get me wrong, but fantasy points aren’t awarded for speed. Junior qualified 23rd on Friday, which means it’s probably going to take him about 150 to 200 laps to get to the top 10. He’s used to starting mid-pack at Martinsville, and he actually finished 3rd here in the spring after starting 26th. Six of the last eight Martinsville races have ended with Earnhardt inside the top 10, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him there on Sunday once again. Junior was 9th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 and ranked 9th on that chart in Happy Hour. One thing to consider is that this team’s best finish over the last nine Sprint Cup races has been 9th, and Junior is on a streak of four straight results outside of the top 15. Personally, I think there are better options this weekend.
12. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I still don’t see how Kurt Busch won here in the spring. Not only did he have a majorly damaged race car, but he also flat out stinks at this race track. But hey, a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Kurt will probably be on many people’s radars this weekend simply because of that win, and I don’t blame them. The thing is, the #41 Chevrolet has actually looked pretty decent this weekend. Kurt went out and qualified 10th on Friday and followed that up with a pretty good practice session on Saturday morning, posting the 7th-fastest lap and the 10th-best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, the #41 Chevrolet was 12th on both the overall speed chart and ten-lap average chart. As I said before, Kurt’s history here at Martinsville isn’t great. His win in the spring was his second career victory at this race track but that was also the first time he’s finished better than 11th since 2005 (that is not a typo). I’m cautiously optimistic that Kurt can come away with a solid top 10 this weekend, but the risk in picking him is extremely high. On a positive note, he’s finished 11th and 7th over the last two weeks, so he kind of has momentum on his side…
13. Clint Bowyer – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: Clint Bowyer’s crew chief says he has one of the top cars in the field. It’s literally becoming an every week thing, and it’s never right. Bowyer has five top 5s for the entire season, and if you have that good of race cars that number would be much higher even if you constantly ran into bad luck. Now, with that being said, Martinsville is a very good race track for Clint and he could definitely come out of here with a top 10 finish on Sunday. He’s currently on a five-race streak of top 10s at this track and his career average finish of 12.4 here ranks 4th among active drivers. Not too shabby. The #15 Toyota was 10th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and had the 8th-best ten-lap average. In Happy HourClint was 17th in ten-lap average and posted just the 22nd-fastest lap. I’m on the fence about Bowyer this weekend, but he has a decent starting spot (12th) and his record at this track is pretty good. Clint is using the same chassis (no. 806) that he drove to a 9th-place finish here in the spring.
14. Kyle Larson – Starts 16th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The Phenom actually raced in this event last year (for Phoenix Racing) but a blown engine relegated him to a 42nd-place finish. Here in the spring (and in the #42 car) Larson didn’t have that great of a day and ended up 27th after starting 28th. It’s Martinsville and he’s a rookie. My theory with first-year drivers is that they should be better at a track the second time around in their rookie campaign. Larson still doesn’t have “The Paperclip” figured out completely, but he seems improved and I think he’ll challenge for a top 15 finish on Sunday. With the way this team has been performing in the Chase, though, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see young Kyle in the top 10 either. Larson will start Sunday’s Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 from the 16th place. He had the 10th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and posted the 11th-best lap. As long as he keeps his nose clean, Larson has a lot of upside in fantasy–as usual.
15. Carl Edwards – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th (change: -3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Cousin Carl has started 20 Sprint Cup races at Martinsville Speedway and has a career-best finish of 3rd, which came back in 2008. That is also his only top 5 at this track. Edwards’ number of top 10 finishes is a little better (5) but that’s still not the kind of numbers we’re looking for. That being said, Carl is pretty consistent here when it comes to finishing in the teens: he hasn’t ended up worse than 18th in a race here since the 2008 season and that won’t change on Sunday. The #99 Ford will roll off the grid in 11th for the Goody’s Headache Relief 500 and Carl might flirt with the top 10 at some point this weekend but really about 10th place is his ceiling when it comes to finishing the race. He was 26th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but Edwards actually showed up on the ten-lap average chart (19th) which is rare. In Happy Hour, the #99 Ford was just 33rd on the speed chart with the 32nd-best ten-lap average. In my opinion, Carl needs a career run here at Martinsville on Sunday to be in the championship hunt come Homestead, and I just don’t see that happening.
The Next Ten:
16. Tony Stewart
17. Brian Vickers
18. Kasey Kahne
19. A.J. Allmendinger (sleeper)
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
21. Paul Menard
22. Austin Dillon
23. Greg Biffle
24. Aric Almirola
25. Marcos Ambrose
Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th (change: -3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
17. Brian Vickers
18. Kasey Kahne
19. A.J. Allmendinger (sleeper)
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
21. Paul Menard
22. Austin Dillon
23. Greg Biffle
24. Aric Almirola
25. Marcos Ambrose
