AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Kevin Harvick Texas Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the AAA Texas 500. On Sunday he’ll be making his 500th start. It’s not unusual for drivers to go to victory lane in special start number races. In the AAA Texas 500 Kevin Harvick will be one of the primary contenders for the win. The two most similar tracks to Texas are Charlotte and Atlanta. At Charlotte he went to victory lane and at Atlanta he had the best car but the end of the race wasn’t incident free for him. On Sunday he’ll be piloting the very chassis he used in both of those races. At other 1.5 mile tracks this year as long as he’s avoided trouble he’s typically been one of the contenders for the win. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will start in 5th. Six of the last seven Texas races have been won from a top 5 starting position. In Happy Hour Kevin Harvick had a good car. In final practice his ten lap average ranked as the 7th best. Also at the end of Happy Hour his crew chief said he was really good.
Starting Position – 5th
Track History – Kevin Harvick has never won at Texas but he’s been successful. His primary strength has been his consistency. Since 2006 he only has three results worse than 13th. Unfortunately one of those not so good results came in the spring race earlier this year. In that event he started in 3rd and on lap 28 while he was running in 2nd his engine blew up. In the last 9 Texas races prior to this spring he’s finished between 5th and 13th in every race but one. Last fall at Texas Kevin Harvick had a fast car and he was able to pass people in the middle to upper grooves of the track. In the race he finished 8th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In spring 2013 at Texas Kevin Harvick started in the back of the pack due to an engine change. That wasn’t too much of a problem for him. He had a great car that worked well in the top line. By lap 100 he had driven into the top ten. From that point on though he didn’t get much closer to the front. In the middle portion of the race I would estimate his average running position was around 9th. With about 50 laps to go in the race he was burned by a caution at an unfavorable time during the pit cycle. That dropped him from about 9th to the high teens. His car in the closing segment wasn’t as strong as it was before and he only managed to rally up to a 13th place finish. In 2012 Harvick had a pair of 9th place finishes.
Similar Track Performances – In the last four races at tracks of this length Kevin Harvick has had a car that’s been capable of winning every race. Over that stretch he only won once and it was at Charlotte. Atlanta is similar and he should’ve won that race but he got into the wall late after dominating the race and leading 195 laps.
Momentum – Since Richmond minus his Martinsville wreck he has a 6.9 average finish.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be using his race winning Charlotte chassis. He also used this chassis and dominated Atlanta leading 195 laps before being involved in a late race incident.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 9/2

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2. Jimmie Johnson Texas Fantasy NASCAR Spin – I know Jimmie Johnson isn’t looking as attractive as he normally looks but he has to bounce back at some point, right? I think he has a very good chance to correct course and get a good result at Texas. Recently at Texas Jimmie Johnson has been Mr. November. He’s won this particular event three times including the last two fall races. Last November Johnson had a dominating performance and earned a perfect driver rating. This spring it’s hard to know just how good he was because his race was far from incident free. On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be using his Dover chassis. Those cars are often the best of the 48 fleet. In the AAA Texas 500 Jimmie Johnson will start in third. He won from this position last fall and historically it’s produced more race winners than any other position in the field. In practice Jimmie Johnson has shown a lot of speed. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the best and in practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. Also in Happy Hour his fifteen lap average ranked as the best. One comment that Jimmie Johnson said that I like is that he’s having the most fun he’s had in a long time.
Starting Position – 3rd
Track History – Texas has been a great track for Jimmie Johnson. He’s won here three times, has a 9.5 average result and has finished in the top five nearly half the time. His top 11 finish percentage stands at 77.3% percent. This spring at Texas it’s hard to know how good he was. His car got early damage after Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran through the dirt and then shortly after that he had a cut tire that dropped him down multiple laps. When the checkered flag waved he finished 25th. Last fall Johnson won in dominant fashion leading 255 laps and earning a perfect driver rating. In spring 2013 Johnson was solid and came home with a 6th place result. In 2012 Johnson had the best car in both races and came home with results of 1st and 2nd. In those combined events for 2012 he had the best driver rating, best average running position (2.5) and led 324 laps. At Texas Jimmie Johnson has more runner-up finishes than anyone in the series (5).
Similar Track Performances – Jimmie Johnson has been strong at 1.5 mile tracks but he’s been off recently. In the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks he’s failed to finish in the top ten. Charlotte is the most recent “Cookie Cutter” visited and he was in contention for a top five finish but he pitted late and then slide back to 17th during the final restart.
Momentum – Recent races haven’t been friendly to Johnson. In the last four races his best result is 17th and his average finish is 28.3.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be using his 3rd place Dover chassis.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 7/1

Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions, Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Speeds, Happy Hour Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Texas Qualifying Results, Texas Pit Stall Assignments, Odds To Win, Chassis Selections

3. Joey Logano Texas Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Joey Logano will be a contender for the win in the AAA Texas 500. This season on 1.5 mile tracks he’s been the best driver in the series. He’s been extremely consistent and he’s been fast. In the 9 races held at tracks of this length he’s scored the most points and is ranked #1 in many important loop data statistical categories. Recently at Texas Logano has been great. Since he’s been in a Ford he’s finished in the top five every race. This spring at Texas nobody had a better car than Logano and he raced his way to victory lane. On Sunday Joey Logano will start in 10th. This race has been won from a top ten starting position 77.7 percent of the time. In Happy Hour I thought Logano had good lap times but his ten lap average ranked as the 18th best. I think part of that could be that he doesn’t run quick lap times at the start of the run, but he gets better as it goes along. His fifteen lap average in Happy Hour ranked as the 9th best.
Starting Position – 10th
Track History – Since being a member of Penske Racing Joey Logano has been the man at Texas. In the last three Texas races he has a 3.0 average finish, 8.7 average running position and the second best driver rating. This spring at Texas Logano had the best car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he earned the best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 108 laps. The strength of his car was being good over long runs. Last fall his car was also impressive and in that race he finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. In April 2013 he started in the rear of the field because of inspection issues just prior to the start. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th with a little help from a caution during the pit cycle. In fall 2012 in his final JGR race in the Lone Star State he finished 11th.
Similar Track Performances – This season at 1.5 mile tracks Logano has scored the most points, has 2 wins, the most top fives, the best average finish (5.9) and the best average running position (6.9).
Momentum – In the Chase Logano has scored the most points, has the best average finish (4.3) and has only finished outside the top five once (Talladega).
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Joey Logano will be using his Bristol race winning chassis. This chassis also finished 9th at Michigan in June.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 6/1