Phoenix 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

Round Three

Well, after what transpired at Texas last weekend, we’re set up for one hell of a race in the desert at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday afternoon. The Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 will be led to the green by Denny Hamlin with last week’s “bad guy,” Brad Keselowski, on the outside pole. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. No driver is guaranteed a spot in the final Chase round at Homestead but Hamlin and Joey Logano are sitting in the catbird seat right now. Personally, I think we’re going to see a calm race on Sunday after the brawl last weekend, but you never know. What I do know is that this new Chase format is one of the better ideas NASCAR has came up with. Looking at this weekend, there were two practice sessions on Saturday and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Be sure to check out our notes for each as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. [box type=”tick” border=”full”]I had 6 of the top 7 correct the last time we were at Phoenix. Can that happen again? The only way to get ALL of our exclusive content is to get the ifantasyrace advantage. Click here for more information on how to join.[/box]

Final Top 15 Ranking For The Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500:

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

There’s really not many bad things that you can say about Kevin Harvick this weekend. He absolutely dominated the race here back in March, won this event in 2013, and also got to victory lane in the 2012 fall Phoenix race. So, Harvick’s won three of the last four races at this track, has to win on Sunday to guarantee a shot at the championship at Homestead, and he will roll off the grid in 3rd. It seems like a no-brainer. The #4 Chevrolet was the fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and had the best ten-lap average during that session as well–by quite a large margin over Brad Keselowski (1.3 mph). In Happy Hour, “Happy” was 2nd on the speed chart and once again had the best ten-lap average. I’m not sure we’ll see another dominating performance here at Phoenix out of Harvick on Sunday, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Either way, I think the #4 Chevrolet should be the favorite heading into the Race for Heroes 500 and we should see this team battling for the championship in the season finale next weekend, rightfully so.

2. Brad Keselowski – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The only reason that I have “Bad Brad” in the Medium Risk category this weekend is because of what happened at Texas one week ago. If, somehow, Jeff Gordon goes a lap down late in this race on Sunday and Keselowski is running up front, there isn’t a doubt in my mind that the former will go out on track to take out the Blue Deuce. Something like that is going to be in the back of fantasy owners’ minds all weekend. That being said, the Blue Deuce Ford is very fast once again, and Keselowski has been great here since the repave. In the last five Phoenix races, Kez has never finished worse than 11th and four of the five were 6th-place or better results. He posted a career-best finish of 3rd here at PIR back in March after starting from the pole and I think we’ll see something similar out of Brad on Sunday. Keselowski was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday with the 2nd-best ten-lap average (both behind Kevin Harvick). In Happy Hour, the Blue Deuce ranked 12th-fastest on the speed chart and 7th in ten-lap average. Keselowski doesn’t need a win here at Phoenix like he did last round at Talladega, but it wouldn’t hurt. It’s going to be fun watching the #2 and #4 battle on race day.

3. Jeff Gordon – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I’m actually kind of worried that Jeff Gordon is still pissed off from the Texas race last weekend and he’s going to be driving over his head here at Phoenix on Sunday. The #24 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 7th for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 and should be a definite top 5 threat before it’s all said and done. On the overall speed chart, Gordon ranked 6th in both Practice #2 and Happy Hour on Saturday. His ten-lap average during those sessions were 7th and 13th, respectively, although is should be noted that Jeff’s long run in Happy Hour came later in the session (and could explain the decreased speed). I said last week that my championship pick for 2014 was now Joey Logano, and that still holds true. That being said, I had Gordon winning it all before the Chase started, and I think there’s a pretty good shot he gets into the Homestead race still alive. There’s only one thing I don’t like about Jeff this weekend (and the main reason I have him as Medium Risk): he hasn’t finished better than 11th in the fall Phoenix race since the 2009 season–well before the repave. That being said, he’s been solid in the spring each time and finished 5th here in March. I expect something similar this Sunday.

4. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Joey Logano has been a top 5 machine for the last three months and that’s not going to change this weekend. Yeah, he disappointed a lot of people with the tire issue at Texas last weekend, but those are the types of things that you can’t predict. Not to mention, he still ended up finishing 12th; it could have been a lot worse. The #22 Ford didn’t look as good as Keselowski’s #2 on the speed charts this weekend, but if I’ve learned anything this season it’s that when one Penske car is on, they’re both on. Logano will roll off the grid in 4th for the Quicken Loans 400 Race for Heroes 500 on Sunday and should race in the top 8 all day long. He was 17th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, but Joey made that run later in the session so that could explain it. He was 4th on the overall speed chart. Logano led 33 laps in this race one year ago (finished 9th) and was out front for 71 circuits here in March (finished 4th). Look for the #22 team to play a safe, conservative race on Sunday and go hard for the championship at Homestead next weekend. As long as they don’t get too easy-going, Logano should be a top 5 contender once again.

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Qualifying hasn’t been this team’s strongest point this season so I’m not really worried that Junior will start Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 in 16th on Sunday. The #88 Chevrolet looks really solid on the long runs this weekend and that’s what it’s going to take to be a contender. For the record, I don’t think Earnhardt can win on Sunday, but a top 5 isn’t out of reach for NASCAR’s most popular driver. Junior ranked 4th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and was 8th-fastest in terms of that statistic in Practice #2. He also ranked inside the top 5 in terms of “one fast lap” in each session as well. Currently Junior is on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes at Phoenix International Raceway, and going into Sunday I think he has a very good shot at making it four in a row. This team had another solid race at Texas last weekend and are looking to build some momentum heading into the offseason. Junior’s mid-pack starting position makes him a decent selection for NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live. He’s running chassis no. 88-905, which is the same one Dale ran at Loudon, ending up 9th at the checkered flag.

6. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Boy was it refreshing to see this #48 team back in top form at Texas last weekend; I was beginning to think that Jimmie Johnson forgot how to drive these race cars. “Six Time” has the best average finish (6.7) here at Phoenix of all drivers in the Sprint Cup series and is a four-time winner, the most recent victory coming in 2009. Jimmie had a difficult first race here after the repave/reconfigure–as did the rest of Hendrick–but since he has has post four finishes of 6th or better in five attempts. I really don’t like the fact that he’s starting so far back this weekend but it’s not the end of the world. Johnson wasn’t overly impressive on the practice charts this weekend but he was 9th-fastest overall in Happy Hour and had the 14th-best ten-lap average during that session (5th-best among those whose long runs came later in the session). I don’t think JJ will be in the mix for the victory on Sunday but a top 5 finish isn’t out of reach for this #48 team. That win at Texas last Sunday was just what this team needed as they look ahead to the 2015 season.

7. Kyle Busch – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Believe it or not, Rowdy Busch has been pretty consistent here at Phoenix since the repave/reconfigure. He ended up 36th on the first race here on the “new” track but since then Kyle has finished inside the top 10 in four of the five races ran at the desert. He’ll start in 6th when the green flag waves on the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 on Sunday and I think a top 10 finish is definitely within reach for this #18 team. Kyle had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 but didn’t show up on that chart in Happy Hour, which I found odd. He only ran 31 laps during that final session so maybe they were experimenting on the car, who knows. I do know that Kyle had good speed in the first session on Saturday. Obviously there’s some risk in picking the #18–as there always is–but Busch has finished 11th or better in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races, and as I said before he’s been pretty solid here at Phoenix over the last couple of years as well.

8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Denny Hamlin and Darian Grubb also do just enough to get a decent finish. Yeah, they won the pole for Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500, but I’d be willing to be that the #11 Toyota is outside of the top 5 by the end of the first fuel run. Denny seems to think that he can win the championship this year if he can just be in it at Homestead, but I personally believe that he has no chance until he gets rid of Darian Grubb. We all know how good of a driver Hamlin is on the flat tracks but he hasn’t been great here at Phoenix recently; Denny wound up 28th in this race one year ago and was 19th in the spring race here back in March. That being said, Hamlin finished 12th, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the first four races after the repave/reconfigure. As far as practice goes this weekend at Phoenix, the #11 Toyota didn’t impress me that much but Denny did put down a top 10 lap time in Happy Hour and had the 15th-best ten-lap average during that session. Momentum-wise, this team has four top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races with zero top 5s. After Sunday I expect those numbers to be five of six and zero, respectively.

9. Matt Kenseth – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th (change: +1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

All of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars had good qualifying efforts but were just decent in practice come Saturday. I think all three should be good for top 10 runs in the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500, but I’m not sure if any of the trio can get up there to the top 5. Matt Kenseth is ranked the lowest of the three drivers simply because he’s not very good at Phoenix. I think the repave/reconfigure has benefited Matt more than some, but he’s still not great; in 24 career starts here in the desert, Kenseth has an average finish of 17.2 with just nine top 10s to his credit. The good news? Matt has finished 14th or better in four of the last five, as well as seven of the last nine. One thing that I really like about the #20 Toyota this weekend is that Kenseth ended up 6th on the ten-lap average chart in Practice #2 and 2nd on there in Happy Hour. That rarely happens, and when it does, the #20 is usually a really good pick on race day. I’m being conservative here with my 9th-place ranking but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Kenseth fighting for a top 5 finish at the end of this one.

10. Kyle Larson – Starts 8th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I remember the spring race at Phoenix quite vividly, mainly because I had a really good fantasy week (that happens when you predict 6 of the top 7 correctly) but also because Kyle Larson disappointed most of us quite a bit. Honestly, this #42 Chevrolet looked like a top 10 contender here in March but as soon as the green flag waved on that race, Kyle started dropping back before finally settling in the mid-20s and finishing 20th. Not terrible, but I was still expecting more. Now, I’ve said all season long that the rookies will be better picks when we get to tracks for the second time, and once again I think Larson has top 10 potential. He’ll start in 8th once again and he had the 3rd-fastest ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday while posting the 13th-best lap. “The Phenom” was 7th on the speed chart in Practice #2 and had the 12th-fastest ten-lap average. This kid had a couple of tough weeks at Talladega and Martinsville but got back on track at Texas last week with a 7th-place result–his eighth finish of 11th or better in the last ten Sprint Cup races. It’s hard to fully trust Kyle Larson but if this season has shown us anything it’s that he’s not the typical rookie.

11. Ryan Newman – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th (change: -4)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Ryan Newman is a really strong racer on the flat tracks and Phoenix is no exception: in the last nine Sprint Cup races here in the desert, “The Rocketman” has amassed seven top 10 finishes, five of which were also top 5s. He’s all about consistency and, as I said last week, that just might get Newman into the finale at Homestead with his championship hopes alive. I’m not sure what happened on Friday here at Phoenix but Ryan will have to start the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 mid-pack in 20th. It’s not the end of the world but obviously as a fantasy owner I would like to see him start a little higher. The #31 Chevrolet wasn’t great during the practice sessions on Saturday but often times Newman doesn’t show his hand until the race. I expect this team to work on the car all race long on Sunday and have Newman in position to grab a top 10 finish when the checkered flag waves on the Eliminator Round. Momentum-wise, only Joey Logano has a better average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races than Ryan Newman (6.3 to 7.0).

12. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th (change: +7)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

The Stewart-Haas Racing cars all have pretty good speed this weekend and the #41 of Kurt Busch is no exception. He qualified in 10th on Friday and backed that up with some solid practice sessions on Saturday, ranking 3rd-fastest in the first and 8th in Happy Hour. Kurt had the 4th- and 11th-best ten-lap averages during those sessions, respectively. From a historical standpoint, the older Busch brother has raced better here at Phoenix in the fall than he has in the spring; Kurt was 5th in this event last season and ended up 8th in the fall 2012 race. Obviously he’s going to be a High Risk pick this weekend just because he’s a hothead driver and this is a race track where the action gets pretty tight. Also, I don’t know how those domestic abuse charges will affect him in the car–if at all. I have a feeling that racing on Sunday will get his mind off of that. Kurt is racing another old Danica Patrick car, but he’s found success in those this year. Momentum-wise, the #41 team has three finishes of 11th or better in the last four Sprint Cup races. If you want to take a chance on Kurt this Sunday, I don’t have much of an argument against it. Good luck, though.

13. Carl Edwards – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Honestly, I don’t know if this #99 team even knows that they’re in the thick of the championship hunt right now. It’s almost depressing, really. Carl has been pretty solid here at Phoenix since the repave, though, with a win in last year’s spring event and an average finish of 10th in the six races held since. The #99 Ford ran 8th here in the spring but it would shock me if Edwards got up that high this weekend. He’ll roll off the grid in 13th on Sunday, which isn’t terrible, but as usual Carl never made any long runs in practice so it’s difficult to get a read on how good this car is. The #99 Ford ranked 29th on the overall chart in Practice #2 on Saturday and bumped it up to just 21st by the end of Happy Hour, so maybe even this 13th-place ranking is too high for Edwards. One thing that this team does have going for them is that they seem to be able to pull finishes out of their ass (9th at Texas last week, for example). Call it luck or what have you, a finish is a finish. You won’t see Edwards on any of my fantasy rosters this week but if you want to take a chance with him, be my guest.

14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 19th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Jamie Mac finished 10th here at Phoenix back in March and has had pretty good speed throughout this year’s Chase, so I’ll give him a shot here in my final rankings before the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500. The #1 Chevrolet will roll off the grid mid-pack on Sunday, which isn’t ideal but it’s not the end of the world either. McMurray posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday (barely ahead of Kevin Harvick) and ran the most laps of anyone in that session, which tells me that Jamie really likes his car. Now, how is it going to be on the long run? I’m not sure. McMurray ranked 9th in ten-lap average during that final practice so there is some speed there. He’s been a hit or miss pick all Chase–nah, season–long and that won’t change this weekend. McMurray has sleeper potential but keep in mind that he has just three top 10s in 22 career starts at Phoenix and an average finish of 21.1. There are better options this weekend but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the #1 Chevrolet flirting with the top 10 when this week’s race is all said and done.

15. Paul Menard – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: none)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

We’re at the point in the 2014 fantasy NASCAR season that many start going deeper in the talent pool, hoping to hit on a sleeper. Sometimes moves like that pay off, but usually they don’t. That being said, Paul Menard is one of the guys that I think has quite a bit of speed this weekend and would make a solid sleeper option. He also starts 11th, which is pretty good for him. The #27 Chevrolet was 11th on the speed chart in Practice #2 and ended up 5th-fastest in ten-lap average when that session was over. Paul ranked 11th and 5th in Happy Hour on those two respective charts as well, which is kind of interesting actually. All of that is the good news. Now for the bad: Menard has just two top 10 finishes in 15 career starts here at Phoenix International Raceway, the most recent coming in 2012. One positive note, however, is that he seems to run better here in the fall than he does in the spring. Menard ran 23rd in this year’s March race. I think Paul will be good for a solid top 20 finish on Sunday but the higher teens is really the ceiling for this team in the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500.

The Next Ten:

16. Clint Bowyer
17. Brian Vickers
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Tony Stewart
20. Aric Almirola
21. Austin Dillon
22. Martin Truex, Jr.
23. Casey Mears (could be valuable –starts 12th, top 15 finish here in March)
24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
25. Ty Dillon