Homestead Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Ford EcoBoost 400
Down to One
At Homestead-Miami Speedway, a new NASCAR Sprint Cup champion will be crowned on Sunday evening, and it might not be the guy that makes it to victory lane; in both the Nationwide and Camping World Truck series’ finales, the guy doing the burnouts on TV wasn’t the one who won the race. Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman are the four Chasers that have a shot at becoming a champion on Sunday, and the way to reach that goal is to finish better than the other three. Bonus points do not matter: whoever finishes best on Sunday will be our champion. This new Chase format wasn’t perfect in year one but it sure made the racing exciting.
As far as practice and qualifying goes, we had the typical schedule this weekend. Jeff Gordon won the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. There were then two practices on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to check out our extensive notes for each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Ford EcoBoost 400:
1. Jeff Gordon – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I kind of really want to see Jeff Gordon go out and dominate the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday. In all reality, the four Chase drivers fighting for the championship this season should be Harvick, Logano, Hamlin, and Gordon, but since Newman dumped Larson at the end of last week’s race at Phoenix, Gordon’s chances were ruined. Like Jeff said last week, though, all the #24 team can do now is go out and win at Homestead–and I think they have a pretty good shot at doing so. The #24 Chevrolet will lead the field to the green on Sunday and should lead plenty of laps; Gordon was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and ranked 6th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. He always has a good long-run car even though the 21st-fastest ten-lap average in Happy Hour leaves a lot more to be desired. Here at Homestead, Gordon has one victory (2012) and owns an average finish of 10.6 in 15 career starts. He’s finished 6th or better in five of the last seven races here and that should be six of the last eight after Sunday. Momentum-wise, this has finished 1st or 2nd in six of the last ten Sprint Cup races and they’re utilizing a brand new chassis this weekend. Sorry Jeff Gordon fans, if life was fair he would probably be taking home this year’s championship on Sunday. The Ford EcoBoost 400 trophy will have to serve as a crappier consolation prize.
2. Joey Logano – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Joey Logano is going to need to drive the best race of his life on Sunday if he wants to win the championship, and he’s going to need to be mistake-free as well. No pressure, kid. This #22 team has been the definition of strength and consistency since mid-July and that shouldn’t change this weekend. Also, Logano has been the best driver on intermediate tracks all season long, so that doesn’t hurt. Here at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Joey has yet to post a top 5 finish in five career starts but I think that could change here on Sunday. In his first attempt at this track with Penske in 2013, Logano qualified 3rd and ended up with a solid 8th-place finish. Now, this season, he will start 9th and should–as usual–be a top 5 threat in the Ford EcoBoost 400. This team is utilizing chassis PRS-923 on Sunday, which is the same one Logano finished 4th with back at Chicago. Joey was 6th-fastest in Practice #2 but never made a long run, which this team sometimes doesn’t do. In Happy Hour, the #22 Ford ended up 7th in overall speed and had the 12th-best ten-lap average. Teammate Brad Keselowski is really fast this weekend and most times that means Logano will be solid as well, no matter what the speed chart says. I’m giving the nod to Logano over Harvick in my rankings this week simply because, for the last month or so, I’ve been saying the former will win this year’s championship. It’s going to be fun to watch these two do battle on Sunday no matter what the outcome is.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The strongest team all season has the driver that has been the strongest and most consistent at Homestead-Miami Speedway over the last decade, so if history tends to repeat itself we should see Kevin Harvick win the 2014 Sprint Cup series championship on Sunday–and it would be well-deserved. However, I’m sticking to my prediction of Joey Logano. Still, it’s going to be tough to beat Harv. On Friday, “Happy” went out and qualified 5th, which is actually his best starting spot here at Homestead since the 2008 season. Looking at Harvick’s history at this track, he owns a career average finish of 8.1 here (over 13 starts) and has finished outside of the top 10 just twice. Kevin’s never won here but it’s bound to happen soon. In Practice #2 on Saturday, the #4 Chevrolet was at the top of the overall speed chart and ranked 4th in ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, “Happy” was 8th on the overall speed chart with the 7th-best ten-lap average. Harvick is a on a six-race streak of top 10s at this track and should easily make it seven in a row on Sunday. Rodney Childers decided on chassis no. 850 for “Happy” this weekend, which is the same one this team utilized in this year’s All-Star Race, finishing 2nd. They also used this car to test here at Homestead a few weeks ago.
4. Brad Keselowski – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd (change: -1)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Brad Keselowski has a really fast Blue Deuce this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway and should probably be ranked inside the top 3 because it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him in victory lane. What I don’t like about BK this weekend is that he has never finished inside the top 5 at this track in six career starts. However, I expect that to change this Sunday. Keselowski will roll off the grid in 4th when the green flag waves over the 2014 Ford EcoBoost 400 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get to the lead within the first few green flag runs. Keselowski was 3rd-fastest in Practice #2 and ended up 9th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. He ranked 9th and 5th in ten-lap average for those two practice sessions, respectively. Momentum-wise, Keselowski has three top 5s in the last four Sprint Cup races and Penske has been great on the intermediates all season long. Kez is running chassis PRS-924 this weekend, which is the same one he won with at Chicago. The #2 Ford should definitely be in the discussion of potential winners this weekend.
5. Matt Kenseth – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #20 team has been focused on handling all season long and that should help Matt Kenseth here at Homestead on Sunday. As we all know, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas haven’t exactly been up to snuff in terms of speed this weekend, but a good-handling race car can help with that on certain tracks. Last week at Phoenix, Kenseth finished 3rd, which is encouraging because he hates that track; now Matt has three finishes of 6th or better in the last four Sprint Cup races, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him make it four of five after Sunday. Kenseth went out and qualified 3rd for this year’s EcoBoost 400 and followed that speed up with the 7th-fastest lap in Practice #2. In Happy Hour the #20 Toyota was 5th-fastest and ranked 2nd to the #48 on the ten-lap average chart. Here at Homestead Matt owns a career average finish of just 16.5 but he has finished 9th or better in three of last four season finales and that includes a runner-up finish from the pole here last season. Looking at 2014, when Kenseth has qualified inside the top 5, he has ended up finishing 10th or better 75% of the time.
6. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: Medium-to-High Risk**
And Jimmie Johnson disappointed once again at Phoenix last weekend. Wow. Over the last six Sprint Cup races, the #48 Chevrolet has that dominating win at Texas but the other five races ended with Jimmie in 17th or worse. Yeah, that’s why he’s kind of a risky pick this weekend at Homestead. With that being said, after the two practice sessions on Saturday, it’s hard to place any other car ahead of the #48 in terms of raw speed. Johnson posted top 5 overall speeds in each session on Saturday and was inside the top 5 in both practices when it came to ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, the #48 was P1 on both of those charts. Here at Homestead, Jimmie has a career average finish of 14.9 but that deserves an asterisk because there were quite a few races that “Six Time” didn’t have to race that hard and could just cruise to a championship. I think Johnson has a car that could finish inside the top 5 but being able to and actually doing so are two completely different things. I’d be a little bit more confident in picking him if he qualified better, but let’s face it: this is Jimmie Johnson and he can go out and win any week. Let’s just hope Chad Knaus isn’t experimenting big time this week.
7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Well, Denny, it’s time to prove me wrong. Earlier this year Hamlin said that he felt really confident he could win the championship if he made it to Homestead. I took his word for it and put in a bet at 18/1 that he would. Couldn’t hurt, right? Fast forward to now and Hamlin is at Homestead with a shot to win the championship. He also has a crew chief that has won a championship here before–Darian Grubb with Tony Stewart back in 2011. I’m not a huge fan of Grubb whatsoever, but he takes plenty of strategic chances and I guess a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Hamlin’s the defending winner of this race and has won twice at this race track in nine career starts. Not bad, right? His career average finish of 11.2 here at Homestead-Miami Speedway is good enough for 5th-best among active drivers, too. Denny qualified 8th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400 and had a decent day on Saturday during the practice sessions, ending up 5th and 13th in overall speed while ranking 3rd and 3rd in ten-lap average. Momentum-wise this #11 team has five top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races. I don’t see Hamlin holding the Sprint Cup championship on Sunday but if Harvick and Logano both have bad luck you never know…
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Junior is racing chassis no. 88-877 this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway, which is the same one he utilized to finish 11th with back at Chicago. His record here at Homestead isn’t that great (20.7 average finish) but Junior has ended up finishing 11th or better in each of the last three events here, including a career-best 3rd-place result last season. All of the Hendrick Chevrolets look like they have some good speed this weekend and the #88 is no exception. Junior will roll off the grid in 11th on Sunday and had the 6th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Last season he took the high line around the track and was really able to make it work. Earlier this year, the #88 team was a solid top 5 pick at pretty much any intermediate track, but recently they have came back down to reality a bit. That being said, since Dale’s win at Martinsville, he’s finished 6th at Texas and 8th last week at Phoenix. I think Earnhardt will be a solid top 10 pick on Sunday but I’m not sure this team has what it takes to get to the top 5 in this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400.
9. Kurt Busch – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Over the last month or so, this #41 team is finally showing the speed we expected of them, so that has to give Kurt Busch some confidence heading into 2015. He ended up finishing 7th at Phoenix last weekend and that makes it three top 10s in the last four Sprint Cup races for the elder Busch brother, his second-best four-race streak this season. Here at Homestead, Kurt went out and qualified on the outside pole on Friday and ended up with the 2nd-fastest ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday afternoon. During Happy Hour, the #41 Chevrolet ranked 3rd in overall speed with the 9th-best ten-lap average. Now obviously there’s going to be quite a large amount of risk if you pick Kurt Busch this weekend, but that should be expected by now. Also, he has just one top 10 finish in the last four races at Homestead-Miami Speedway–a 9th-place effort in 2012. Busch did win from the pole here back in 2002, so that’s one positive when looking at his resume. He seems to be hit or miss at this track, and if you’re trying a “Hail Mary” play this weekend, I’d go ahead an put the #41 on your roster because I think Kurt has the speed to finish top 5 on Sunday.
10. Ryan Newman – Starts 21st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“The Rocketman” successfully crashed this year’s championship party, but he’s already dug himself in a hole this weekend before “The Money Race” has even started. On Friday, Newman (surprisingly) wasn’t very strong in qualifying and will end up rolling off the grid mid-pack on Sunday (21st). It’s not the end of the world, and he’s never really qualified well here at Homestead anyway, but it’s still not something you want to have to deal with as a team fighting for the championship. Not only do they have a bunch of ground to make up when the green flag waves but they also didn’t get a very good pit stall selection–not to say that most competitors won’t be a lot easier on the four Chasers on Sunday. Newman ranked 12th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday and had the 11th-best ten-lap average in that session (out of 17 cars). In Happy Hour this team improved the car even more, as they ranked 12th on the overall speed chart with the 8th-best ten-lap average. Ryan has two top 10s in the last three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and should be in the hunt for another one here on Sunday. However, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to take home the hardware. Newman is racing chassis no. 486 this weekend, which is the same one he used at Kansas to finish 6th.
11. Kyle Larson – Starts 27th – Yahoo! C Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Larson actually did run the 2013 finale here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and he did so in the #51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet. He started 20th and ended up finishing a solid 15th. This year, “The Phenom” is in much better equipment and will look to end his rookie campaign on a high note with some momentum heading into 2015. What’s interesting is that if Kyle can manage to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday, that will leave him with 18 finishes inside that mark for the year (or 50% of the races). Not too bad for a rookie. Momentum-wise, Larson hasn’t been great as of late but he’s still getting solid teen finishes. The intermediate tracks are where has really shined this year, however, and at Homestead running the high line is definitely the fastest way around the track–which plays in Larson’s hands. Kyle qualified the #42 Chevrolet in 27th-place on Friday but that doesn’t worry me very much just because history has shown that starting position doesn’t matter much at this track. Speed-wise I think Larson has a top 10 car; he was 8th-fastest in Practice #2 and ranked 22nd in Happy Hour with the 20th-best ten-lap average. The #42 has been a fantasy gold mine this year and has the potential to be one again on Sunday even though Larson’s lap times weren’t that great on Saturday.
12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I don’t know what it is but Martin Truex, Jr. just has Homestead-Miami Speedway figured out. I can’t explain it, and I’m not going to try to. Let’s go back to 2006 when Martin was driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc. He came into Homestead, qualified 20th, led 27 laps and almost won the damn thing but ended up finishing 2nd to Greg Biffle…and Truex hasn’t looked back since. In the seven races here at Homestead since that day, Martin has never finished worse than 11th, and he’s currently on a three-race streak of finishes 6th or better. Not too shabby, especially from a guy in the fantasy tier that Truex is in. This year he is racing for Furniture Row, and although Martin has only five top 10 finishes thus far in his 2014 campaign, I expect him to finish the season with six after Sunday. The #78 Chevrolet was 10th on the overall speed chart in Practice #2 and ended up 7th in terms of ten-lap average. In Happy Hour Truex was 15th on the speed chart and 16th in ten-lap average. At Homestead, Truex provides a great fantasy option not only in allocation leagues such as Yahoo!, but in pretty much any other fantasy league as well.
13. Kyle Busch – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th (change: -3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kyle Busch has actually been pretty good here at Homestead over the last two seasons (finishing 4th and 7th), and he qualified 7th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so there’s a few positives going along with Rowdy this weekend. However, after another disappointing race at Phoenix, he now has just one top 10 finish in the last four Sprint Cup races. If we’ve seen anything out of this driver, however, it’s that he has the ability to go out and win at any point in time–although I don’t see that happening on Sunday. Kyle was 16th-fastest in Practice #2 and ended up 23rd on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour. Rowdy was 8th and 11th in terms of ten-lap average for those practice sessions, respectively. Personally I think there are much better options this weekend but you can pick Kyle Busch if you want.
14. Clint Bowyer – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th (change: +3)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Maybe Michael Waltrip Racing just has something figured out about Homestead-Miami Speedway. Martin Truex, Jr. always had success here and Clint Bowyer hasn’t been too shabby either, with finishes of 2nd and 5th in his first two starts here while with MWR. For this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400, the #15 Toyota will roll off the grid in 6th and was pretty sporty in Practice #2, posting the 11th-fastest lap and the best ten-lap average. As usual, Clint’s crew chief said they looked really good. In Happy Hour, Clint had the 4th-best ten-lap average and ranked 11th on the overall speed chart. As I said before, Bowyer has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last two Sprint Cup races here at Homestead, and over eight career starts at this track he has ended up worse than 12th just once (way back in 2007). That being said, I still don’t trust Bowyer and part of that is because he has been so inconsistent (and disappointing) throughout this entire 2014 season. If you’re looking for a “Hail Mary” type of driver, Bowyer is probably a good option this weekend, but if you’re like me and still want to play it on the safe side I would probably stay away from the #15 Toyota this weekend. Clint is using chassis no. 817 this weekend which is the same one he finished 18th with at Kansas back in October.
15. Kasey Kahne – Starts 24th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th (change: +4)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
There are plenty of other options that I could have put in this P15 spot instead of Kasey Kahne. Guys like Aric Almirola and A.J. Allmendinger offer great sleeper options at Homestead, and if you’d like to hear why just ask me (twitter @FanRacingOnline). With that being said, I think the #5 Chevrolet has some pretty good speed going into Sunday so I’m putting Kahne here. Kasey has made 10 career starts here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and has an average finish of 15.2 over those runs. Kahne has four top 10s to his credit here, although the most recent was in 2011 while Kasey was with Red Bull Racing. As I said before, he has had some pretty good speed this weekend–although obviously not in qualifying–especially in Happy Hour, where the #5 Chevrolet was 2nd on the speed chart. Kasey ranked 19th in ten-lap average during that final session. As we all know by now, Kahne is hit or miss every single week, and he still hasn’t finished better than 10th since his win at Atlanta back in August. I don’t expect that to change at Homestead this week.
The Next Ten:
16. Aric Almirola
17. Jamie McMurray
18. A.J. Allmendinger
19. Carl Edwards
20. Paul Menard
21. Brian Vickers
22. Austin Dillon
23. Tony Stewart
24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
25. Marcos Ambrose
