Martin Truex Jr. 2015 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2014 Stats: Points Finish 24th, 0 Poles, 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 5 Top Tens, Average Running Position 19.6, Average Finish 20.2, Laps Led 1, Driver Rating 71.2
Strengths – Martin Truex Jr. is at his best at intermediate tracks and road courses. He’s also capable of performing well at shorter flat tracks.
Weaknesses – Bad luck and consistency issues have long plagued Martin Truex Jr.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Martin Truex Jr. is a good intermediate track driver. In the Chase races held on this track type he showed improvement with the 78 team. In the final six races on intermediate tracks in 2014 he had the 10th best driver rating, a 12.5 average finish and a 15.0 average running position. His late season strides could potentially be somewhat lost though because in 2015 he’ll have a new crew chief who was formerly his team engineer.
In 2013 on this track type he scored the 7th most points.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Last season at flat tracks Truex Jr. ran well. He scored the 15th most points and had a 17.7 average finish. Minus the August Pocono race where he had problems he had a 15.3 average finish. I like Martin Truex Jr. more on the shorter flat tracks. At New Hampshire he finished 12th in both 2014 races and in fall 2013 he led a nearly a third of the race and finished 10th. At Phoenix his finishes have been sporadic and have been across the board. Last year at Phoenix he had results of 12th and 22nd.
Last August at Pocono he had problems and finished 32nd. In the first 2014 race at Pocono he finished 9th. In the 8 Pocono races prior to August 2014 he had a 12.6 average finish. At Indy last summer Truex Jr. started in 25th and finished 25th. In the two races prior to last year at this crown jewel event he had results of 8th and 11th.
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Short Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Truex Jr. has potential but I wouldn’t recommend picking him at short tracks. I view him as a driver who has a lot of bad luck and that intangible comes to play at these venues. In 2014 on this track type he had a 25.0 average finish and scored the 28th most points. In 2013 at short tracks he scored the 22nd most points. His highlight for the year at these venues was a 10th place finish at Richmond in the spring. In the other five races he finished 20th or worse.
Between the three short tracks I think he runs the best at Richmond right now. He finished 25th last fall but in the three races prior to that he had top ten potential. At Bristol he’s run really well but he currently has three straight finishes of 20th or worse. Prior to the last three races he had four straight top twelve finishes. In the last five Martinsville races Truex Jr. has a 25.6 average finish.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Martin Truex Jr. shouldn’t be too high on your fantasy radar at restrictor plate tracks because he has pretty bad luck at these venues. Between the two his luck is worse at Daytona. At that venue his most recent top ten was in the 2010 Daytona 500. In the nine races since that event he has a 26.8 average finish. In the 2014 Daytona 500 he had a fast car but finished 43rd after his engine only lasted 30 laps. Last summer at Daytona he finished 15th.
At Talladega in 2014 he had results of 17th and 27th. Prior to last season he had a pretty good stretch of races going on at Talladega. Between 2013 and 2010 he had a 12.1 average finish and only had one result lower than 13th.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Martin Truex Jr. is a good road course racer. Last season he swept the top fifteen and scored the 12th most points. In 2013 at these venues he scored the most points in the series.
Between the two road courses I would contend he’s better at Watkins Glen. Last year at that serpentine venue he finished 13th. Prior to that event he had four straight top tens. His average finish at that venue is 12.4.
At Sonoma Truex Jr. has also run well. Last year he finished 15th. In 2013 at that venue he raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion and got his second career win. In 2012 he had one of the fastest cars but finished 22nd after getting spun late. In 2011 he finished 8th.
