Jamie McMurray 2015 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Jamie McMurray 2014 Stats: Points Finish 18th, 2 Poles, 0 Wins, 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens, Average Running Position 14.0, Average Finish 16.2, Laps Led 368, Driver Rating 89.7
Strengths – Jamie McMurray is a well-rounded driver who’s capable of performing well on every track type. Typically he performs at his best at venues where the driver is the difference maker.
Weaknesses – Jamie McMurray is one of the more unlucky drivers in the series. When he has a good day watch out because that’s when he’s most prone to having bad luck strike.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – High
Jamie McMurray showed a lot of speed at intermediate tracks last season. I will note his fantasy value might slide from this tier in 2015. I think the loss of his crew chief might be a huge hit to him on this track type. In 2014 on intermediate tracks he scored the 14th most points and had a 15.0 average finish. On this track type minus Kansas #1 and Kentucky (races where he had major problems) he had an 11.9 average result and finished in the top fifteen 73% percent of the time.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – High
McMurray was a consistent performer at flat tracks last season. In the 7 races on this track type he scored the 8th most points, had 1 top five, 4 top tens and was one of 5 drivers who finished in the top twenty every race.
At Indy he’s a former champion but in the last three races he’s finished between 15th and 22nd. Last season he finished 15th. The Tricky Triangle wasn’t too tricky for him because he swept the top ten in 2014 and finished 7th and 10th.
At New Hampshire last season he was a qualifying ace and started in the top five twice. In the fall race he finished 4th. In summer 2014 he finished 16th. In fall 2013 he finished 5th. Phoenix has historically been the toughest flat track for him. He finished 10th in spring 2014 but it should be noted he hasn’t had a result better than 10th since 2008. Since Phoenix was repaved minus a spring 2012 engine failure he has a 17.3 average finish and a 16.7 average running position.
Read his teammates fantasy NASCAR preview: Kyle Larson
Short Track Fantasy Value –High
I like Jamie McMurray on short tracks. He’s run well at all three of them and his 2014 20.2 average finish is deceiving.
At Bristol McMurray is a quality dark horse pick. Since 2010 at that venue minus his spring 2014 wreck where he ran well he has a 10.9 average finish and a 13.9 average running position. Last August he had one of the cars to beat. In that event he finished 8th, had a 7th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 148 laps.
At Richmond he’s run very well recently. In the last three races at that venue he has the 3rd best driver rating, a 6.7 average running position and a 7.0 average finish. In the last two fall races he’s come home with a 4th place result. In spring 2014 he finished 13th.
Martinsville has historically been one of his best tracks and he’s finished in the top ten in 50% percent of his starts. You can’t say that about him at any other track on the schedule. Last fall at “The Paper Clip” he started on the pole, led 84 laps and finished 16th. In spring 2014 he had top ten potential but was wrecked by Dale Earnhardt Jr. In 2013 at Martinsville he swept the top ten and had results of 7th and 10th.
Check out our Jamie McMurray Fantasy NASCAR Portal page
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate
Jamie McMurray knows how to win at restrictor plate tracks. At each of these “Wild Card” venues he’s been to victory lane twice. Are you wondering why I have his fantasy value listed as moderate? It’s because you really can’t count on him coming home with a good result. In a way I would think of him as “fantasy fool’s gold”. Last season on this track type he had a 27.0 average finish. He finished 14th in the Daytona 500 but his three other results were all 29th or worse.
At Daytona his most recent top ten was a 7th in July 2013. To find his next most recent top ten you have to look all the way back to his 2010 Daytona 500 victory. In the ten races since 2010 he has a 20.7 average finish.
At Talladega he won in October 2013 but he’s truly the definition of “hero or zero” at that venue. He comes off as a “zero” way more often so that’s concerning. Since October 2010 he has a win, an 11th place finish and his 7 other results are all 21st or worse.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – High
Jamie McMurray is a quality road course racer. I have his fantasy value listed as high, but I would like to note it’s a low-high.
At Sonoma if you’re looking for a driver who starts up front you can’t do better than McMurray. At that venue he has back to back poles and has started in the top two in 3 of the last 4 races. In last year’s race he was very strong from his 1st place starting position. He finished 4th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the best driver rating. It should be noted his 4th place finish was his first top ten since 2004. In 2013 at Sonoma he finished 25th. In the five races prior to that he came home with a result in the teen’s.
At Watkins Glen since 2010 minus his 2012 wreck he has a 9.0 average starting position, 12.0 average finish and a 12.8 average running position. His two most recent Watkins Glen results are 11th and 14th.
