Martinsville STP 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Jimmie Johnson (Starting 5th)
Fantasy Spin – Jimmie Johnson will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Martinsville STP 500. He’s been a fantasy juggernaut at this venue and I would rank it as his best track. Also at Martinsville he’s probably the safest pick you can make. Outside of his first start and his most recent he’s finished in the top twelve in every race but two. Currently at Martinsville if he would’ve avoided some of his recent problems he could easily have 7 straight top five finishes. On Sunday Jimmie Johnson is starting in 5th. When he’s started in the top five at Martinsville he’s won half the time and has a 2.8 average finish.
Martinsville Recent Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 1st through 5th
Martinsville Personal Fantasy Value – Extremely High
Martinsville History  – Jimmie Johnson is a proven fantasy ace at Martinsville. Among active drivers he’s tied with Jeff Gordon for the most victories (8). At Martinsville Jimmie Johnson is a virtual lock to finish in the top five as long as he avoids trouble. Every finish he’s ever had outside the top ten at Martinsville deserve an asterisk mark. One of his results outside the top ten came in last fall’s race. In that event around lap 100 while he was running in 3rd he pitted because of a vibration. That dropped him two laps down which effectively ended his day. Later in that event he had some additional problems (ran into the back of Kahne, leaked oil). In spring 2014 he was great all race long but at the end it came down to a duel between him and Kurt Busch and the “Outlaw” wanted it more making a late pass. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the best driver rating and led 296 laps. In fall 2013 he likely was good enough to win but he drove conservatively with the championship on the line and finished 5th. In the two races prior to that he had back to back wins, the best driver rating by a wide margin, had a 2nd place average running position and led 539 laps. In spring 2012 he was going to finish in either 1st or 2nd but he was a victim of Clint Bowyer’s dive bomb.

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2) Jeff Gordon (Starting 4th)
Fantasy Spin – Look for Jeff Gordon to contend for the win the Martinsville STP 500. Gordon’s raced here 44 times and he’s proven himself a fantasy ace time and time again. Since 2003 he only has three results outside the top ten and in every one of those races you can give his finish an asterisk mark. In one of those races outside the top ten he should’ve won. On Sunday Jeff Gordon is starting in 4th, that’s his best Martinsville starting position since 2009. In practice Jeff Gordon has been fast. In practice #2 he had the best 5 lap average and best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his car looked really strong and he could cut in the center of the corner with the best of them. His ten lap average in final practice ranked as the 4th best.
Martinsville Recent Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 1st through 7th
Martinsville Personal Fantasy Value – Extremely High
Martinsville History – Jeff Gordon is a living legend at Martinsville. He’s won here eight times but in reality he should have at least dozen victories. Also at Martinsville he has a 6.8 average result and has finished in the top ten 80% percent of the time. If you’re looking for a safe pick you can’t do any better than him. In 91% percent of his Martinsville starts he’s finished in the top fifteen. Last fall Jeff Gordon had the best car (PROS Rankings) but failed to reach victory lane. In the event he earned the best driver rating, finished 2nd, had a 5th place average running position and led 130 laps. The key moment for him in the race was just before lap 200 when he was leading but got caught speeding on pit road. On Sunday he’ll be using that very chassis again. In spring 2014 I think he had top five potential but he pitted out of sequence with the leaders and while he was back in traffic he ran into another car and after that he said, “Killed the car”. He still finished 12th which is remarkable considering what he said. In 2013 nobody was better than him. He won his 8th race in the fall and finished 3rd in the spring. In 2012 he finished 7th in the fall and would’ve won the spring race if the final caution didn’t come out which later resulted in Bowyer’s “Dive Bomb”.

Further Recommended Reading – Martinsville Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy opinion), 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet (great tool!), Martinsville Starting Lineup, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings

3) Joey Logano (Starting 1st)
Fantasy Spin – Joey Logano will be tough to beat at Martinsville from the pole. Track position will be huge in the STP 500 and in addition to that advantage he’ll also have the best pit stall selection. Last year Logano emerged as a fantasy ace at short tracks scoring the most points in the series and winning a third of the races. He didn’t win at Martinsville last year but he did sweep the top five. In Happy Hour Joey Logano showed speed and had the 6th best 10 lap average.
Martinsville Recent Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 4th through 14th.
Martinsville Personal Fantasy Value – High
Martinsville History  – Since joining Penske Racing Joey Logano has performed quite well at Martinsville. Last year in the combined events he was one of the strongest performers. Between the two races he had the 2nd best driver rating, a 5th place average running position and led 99 laps. Last fall Joey Logano carried the Penske banner and was a consistent front runner. In the event he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 5th and led 60 laps. Through the first 300 laps of the race he looked like a serious contender to win. In the final 200 laps he ran well but he looked like a 5th place driver at best which is where he finished. In spring 2014 he was also competitive. He finished 4th, had a 5th place average running position, led 39 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In fall 2013 Logano ran well. He finished 14th but he performed better than his result. Through the first half of the race he ran exclusively in the top ten but pit strategy shuffled him back into the twenties from about the half-way point through the 3/4ths mark. In spring 2013 Logano finished 23rd. That result is misleading and deserves an asterisk mark. In that race with 100 laps to go his battery started going south on him. If his battery issue never surfaced I think he would’ve been right around a 10th place driver.