Texas Duck Commander 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Greg Biffle – Roush Fenway Racing has been down on speed for a while and at high-speed intermediate tracks it’s the most noticeable. This weekend Roush Fenway Racing is bringing their latest iteration of the Gen6 car to the track but I won’t believe in the organizations improvment until I see it. Performance wise I’m sure he’ll look like a 20th place performer. On paper a solid case could be made that Texas is Biffle’s best track. Over the last 13 races he has the best driver rating, best average finish (6.6) and the best average running position (8.5). Last fall at Texas Biffle walked away with an asterisk mark result. Outside of the last 100 laps he never really ran higher than 18th. He largely owes his good result to pit strategy and how the end of the race played out. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th, had a 19th place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In spring 2014 he had one of his best performances of the season. He started in 4th, finished 6th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. In fall 2013 he finished 12th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. His 12th place finish snapped a streak of 10 consecutive top ten finishes at Texas. In spring 2013 at Texas he also had a good car. He started back in 35th and cracked the top ten by lap 100. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th. In the race I don’t think he was quite 4th place good. He was a driver who benefited from a caution during the pit cycle with about 50 laps to go. If that didn’t happen he likely would’ve finished around 10th. In his spring 2012 victory he started in 3rd, had a second place average running position and led 90 laps. It should be noted that I don’t think he had the best car. In that race he was aided by Ryan Newman holding up the leader Jimmie Johnson which allowed Biffle to take the lead. In fall 2012 he finished a little lower than I think he should’ve (10th). In 2005 Biffle won his first race at Texas. This season at 1.5 mile tracks Biffle has results of 14th (Las Vegas) and 25th (Atlanta). (Yahoo B Driver)

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Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola has dark horse / sleeper potential at Texas but you really can’t rely on him coming through for you. One positive trend about him at Texas is that’s he’s recently performed better in the spring race. Last spring he had a good showing and finished 12th. From about lap 140 to the conclusion of the race he ran right around 14th. In spring 2013 he also had a good performance. He started in 3rd, finished 7th and earned the 5th best driver rating. His 10.0 average running position underrates him because during an early pit stop he lost a lot of track position. Last fall at Texas he didn’t perform well. In that event he finished 24th, had a 26th place average running position and earned the 26th best driver rating. In fall 2013 he was also lackluster and finished 27th. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he has one good result and one not so good result. At Atlanta he finished 11th and at Las Vegas he finished 26th. Atlanta is the more similar of the two so that’s good news for those who are considering him for their fantasy team. At Auto Club Speedway he finished 11th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Further Recommended Reading – Texas Top Tier Elite Picks, Front Runner Rankings, Yahoo C List Preview, Texas Scouting Report (What happened last fall), PROS Rankings (Who subjectively had the best car last fall), Who will win the Texas Duck Commander 500

Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer shouldn’t be picked at a 1.5 mile track until he gets some good finishes under his belt. He’s been a pitiful driver at best going back to the midpoint of last season at tracks of this length. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he has results of 21st and 24th. Texas has been a pretty good intermediate track for him but still I would urge you to heed my warning. Since 2008 he’s finished in the top ten 64% percent of the time. Last fall he was never competitive. He started in 24th, had a 20th place average running position, earned the 22nd best driver rating and finished 28th. At Texas in spring 2014 he performed fairly well. In the race he started in 25th, had a 10th place average running position, earned the 9th best driver rating and finished 8th. It should be noted Bowyer was better than his result. With 80 laps to go he had a missing lug nut during a pit stop and as a result it dropped him from 5th to 15th. In fall 2013 at Texas he started in 26th and drove up to a 10th place finish. In that race he also had a 10th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. In spring 2013 he finished 15th but his car was better than that. I would estimate he was about 10th place good but a caution during the pit cycle with about 50 laps to go cost him several positions. It dropped him from 10th to about 18th. In fall 2012 he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and finished 6th. (Yahoo B Driver)

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