Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 4/1 )
Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Texas Duck Commander 500. He’s unquestionably been the strongest performer in NASCAR dating back to last season. This week he’s using a tried and true chassis. It dominated at Atlanta last August and won at Charlotte in October (2014). Its most recent start was last fall at Texas when he finished 2nd. Over the last couple of years Harvick has been a strong performer at Texas. The main attribute I really like about him this week is how strong he’s been at 1.5 mile tracks this year. He won at Las Vegas and finished 2nd at Atlanta. In practice Kevin Harvick’s car was good over long runs. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best.
Texas History  – Kevin Harvick has been one of the strongest drivers at Texas over the last couple of seasons. Since fall 2011 minus the one race he had a problem he’s finished in the top 13 every race. Last fall his long running top two streak started when he finished runner-up. In that event he also earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. Last spring it’s hard to know how good he was because on lap 28 his engine blew up while he was running in 2nd. In fall 2013 he was solid throughout the event. He finished 8th, earned the 8th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In spring 2013 he started in the rear of the field and drove up through the pack without difficulty. He had a late slow pit stop in that race and finished 13th when the checkered flag waved. In 2012 he had a pair of 9th place finishes.
Recent Similar Track Trends – This year at intermediate tracks Harvick has a 1.7 average finish, 3.3 average running position and has led 292 laps.
Momentum – At Martinsville Harvick’s top 2 streak finally ended. For the season he has a 2.7 average finish, 4.0 average running position and has led 670 laps.

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2) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 5th ) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Fantasy Spin – Jimmie Johnson will be a contender in the Texas Duck Commander 500. This race will start in the day time heat and will end with very different track conditions. In races where that variable comes to play crew chief Chad Knaus is the best in the business at adjusting a car. At 1.5 mile tracks visited this season nobody has been better than Johnson. Atlanta is the most similar track visited and he won at that venue. Las Vegas is another similar track and at that venue he was leading until he had a loose wheel. At Texas Johnson is an elite performer. He’s the most recent winner and when he has an incident free race he’s pretty close to “money in the bank”.
Texas History – Jimmie Johnson has run very well at Texas. He’s won here four times and has three straight wins in the fall. In 23 races at Texas Johnson has finished in the top five 48% percent of the time and in the top ten 74% percent of the time. In the last six Texas races Johnson has five finishes in the top six. Last fall Johnson raced his way to victory lane and led 56% percent of the race. Last spring he had multiple problems and finished 25th. In that event his car was damaged early after Earnhardt Jr. kicked up debris on lap 12 and later he had a flat under green. In fall 2013 he put on a display of domination earning a perfect driver rating and leading 255 laps. In spring 2013 he was never a threat to win but finished 6th. In 2012 at Texas he recorded finishes of 1st and 2nd.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Between the two 1.5 mile tracks visited this season Johnson has arguably been the strongest performer. He won at Atlanta and was leading at Las Vegas until he had a loose wheel. At Auto Club Speedway he finished 9th.
Momentum – Minus the two races Johnson had problems this season he has a 6.5 average finish.

Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions, Texas Starting Lineup, 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings

3) Kurt Busch (Starting -1st) (Odds To Win – 6/1 )
Fantasy Spin – Kurt Busch should be a factor at Texas. He’s run well here in the past and it’s the first time he’s visited a track a second time with crew chief Tony Gibson. Last fall in their debut together he ran very well finishing 8th. Auto Club Speedway the most recent intermediate track visited together they nearly went to victory lane. On Sunday he’s starting on the pole. Two of the last five Texas races have been won from that starting position.
Texas History  – Kurt Busch is a former Texas winner and he’s run well on occasion here. Most of his success in his career at Texas is front loaded. In 24 races at Texas he only has 3 top fives but he has finished in the top ten 54% percent of the time. Last fall Texas was his first race where Tony Gibson served as his crew chief. In that event he earned the 5th best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position, earned the 8th best driver rating and led 15 laps. Last spring at Texas he had a disastrous race with multiple tire problems and finished 39th. In fall 2013 he was never a factor and finished 17th. In spring 2013 he was very competitive and his 37th place finish deserves an asterisk mark. In that event he had a fuel rail malfunction. In the 80 laps prior to his problem I would estimate his average running position was around 5th. In fall 2012 he finished 8th.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Kurt Busch has only raced at one intermediate track this year and at Auto Club he would’ve won if he wasn’t for a late caution. Since Tony Gibson has been his crew chief dating back to last season he has a 7.3 average finish and an 8.0 average running position.
Momentum – Kurt Busch has run very well since his suspension was lifted. In 2015 he has a 7.3 average finish and a 7.0 average running position.