Bristol Food City 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 5/1)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick is a good fantasy NASCAR pick at Bristol based purely off how well he’s performed recently . Going back to last season he’s been historically strong. Since last fall at Charlotte excluding races at Martinsville he’s only finished outside the top ten once and that was at Talladega. In 2014 at Bristol Kevin Harvick had one of the fastest cars and in both events he had top five potential until adversity surfaced. In practice Kevin Harvick was happy with his car and was fast. It ran well running both the high-line and the low-line. In both practice sessions on Saturday Harvick had the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his 20 lap average ranked as the best by two-tenths (20 lap averages for the top five drivers are at the bottom of the Happy Hour notes).
Bristol History  – The new Bristol configuration hasn’t been the kindest to Harvick and he has yet to finish in the top ten. Last year in the combined races he was one of the best drivers. In August 2014 he had one of the stronger cars but came home with an asterisk mark 11th place finish. In the race he was top five good but his afternoon went downhill on lap 432 when he got a speeding penalty. At the time of that incident he was running in 7th. Also in that event he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 75 laps. In spring 2014 he had an impressive showing. He started deep in the field in 28th but by lap 100 he reached 4th. Between laps 100 and 450 he was a driver who consistently ran in the top 8. With 50 laps to go his evening went downhill when his engine went up in flames. At the time of his engine failure he was running around the top five. In August 2013 he had a good car but while running around 13th he got swept up in a “Bristol Big One” which led to his 34th place finish. In his three Bristol races prior to that he finished in 14th, 15th and 11th.
Momentum – Nobodies been better than points leader Kevin Harvick in 2015. In 6 of the 7 races he’s finished in the top two. Also for the season he has a 2.6 average finish, 3.7 average running position and has led 766 laps.

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2) Joey Logano (Starting – 6th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – You have to like Joey Logano’s fantasy value at Bristol. When you combine his track record, his good starting position and how well he’s performed this season you know he’ll be a contender in the Food City 500. Recently at Bristol Logano has been a fantasy ace. In his races here for Penske he’s performed like a top five driver every event even though he hasn’t always finished best. You also can’t overlook the fact that he’s the most recent winner here. In practice Logano was good over long runs. In both sessions on Saturday his ten lap averages ranked in the top five.
Bristol History  – Joey Logano has been extremely strong at Bristol since the track reconfiguration. On the new surface he has the 2nd best driver rating and the 2nd best average finish (10.2). Over the last four Bristol races since he’s been in Penske equipment I would argue he’s been the best performer. Last August he had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In that event he earned the best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 76 laps. In spring 2014 he was also strong but walked away with an asterisk mark 20th place finish. Through the first 90 laps I would estimate he probably had around a 2nd place average running position but then he had power steering issues which led to his poor result. To give you a better idea about his level of performance here’s a link to his Yahoo Race Chart. In August 2013 he was very competitive finishing in 5th and earning the 7th best driver rating. In spring 2013 he had a top five car and while he was running in 2nd around lap 350 Denny Hamlin spun him. He later rebounded from that and got near the front again but he retaliated which dropped him back in the running order. When the checkered flag waved he finished 17th. In the first race on the new surface he earned the 2nd best driver rating, finished 8th and led 139 laps.
Momentum – Joey Logano has been the model of consistency in 2015. He’s finished in the top ten every race, has a 5.3 average finish and a 6.0 average running position. Currently he has back to back top four finishes.

Further Recommended Reading – Bristol Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Bristol Starting Lineup, Bristol Scouting Report, Bristol PROS Rankings, Bristol Pit Stall Selections

3) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is a driver who you have to like at Bristol. He’s smart and aggressive. Those two traits are attributes that go hand in hand with success at Bristol. Last year at Bristol Keselowski was one of the strongest drivers between the combined events. He finished 2nd in August and had top five potential in the spring. One aspect I like about Keselowski heading into Bristol is his momentum. He has 6 straight top tens and in the last three races he’s finished in the top five. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 5th best.
Bristol History  – Prior to the Bristol reconfiguration Brad Keselowski had back to back wins. Since then he’s run pretty well. Last August at Thunder Valley he had a great race. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 46 laps. The only man who beat him to the finish line was teammate Joey Logano. In spring 2014 at Bristol he’s a driver who had top six potential but damaged his car with 50 laps to go following Harvick’s engine failure. In that event he earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position, led 40 laps and finished 14th. In August 2013 he was likely mid-teens good but got swept up in a wreck. In spring 2013 he was very competitive and finished 3rd. He could’ve potentially finished even better but he spun his tires during a restart while leading. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 62 laps.
Momentum – Since having an engine failure at Daytona he’s been on a roll and currently has six straight top ten finishes. Over the last six races he’s scored the 2nd most points, has a 5.0 average finish and a 7.7 average running position.