Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win at Richmond in the Toyota Owners 400. Last season on shorter flat tracks he was the best driver in the series. At these venues in 2014 he scored the most points, won twice and had a 3.3 average finish. One particular strength which led to his success was his qualifying prowess. In the six races on shorter flat tracks he had a 2.3 average starting position. Last September Brad Keselowski absolutely dominated the Richmond race. He started first, finished first, had a first place average running position and led 383 laps. Nobody had anything for Keselowski and could keep up with him for the duration of a run. Perhaps the most shocking aspect from his performance is that he didn’t have a perfect driver rating. In spring 2014 Keselowski had a very strong car that was capable of winning. If Matt Kenseth didn’t hold him up late and slow him down he likely would’ve won. In that event he started in 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, finished 4th and led 114 laps. His primary strength in that race was being good over short runs. Over long runs his speed dropped off a little in comparison to the competition. In fall 2013 he had a good car and his 17th place result isn’t reflective of how well he performed. In that event he started 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and led 142 laps. The turning point for him in the race was when a caution came out during green flag pit stops with 58 laps to go. That dropped him to the mid-teens and prior to it coming out he was running in the top five. In spring 2013 luck was clearly not on his side. In that event he had multiple problems in the race. On lap #151 he had a flat tire. Then later he had some sort of vibration and then to make a bad night worse he lost a cylinder with about 25 laps to go. When the checkered flag waved he finished 33rd. If he would’ve had an incident free race I think he had top ten potential because even after he had his first two problems he looked competitive. In 2012 at Richmond he had results of 7th and 9th. At Phoenix earlier this year he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, finished 6th and led 35 laps. (Yahoo A Driver)
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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is an elite driver on shorter flat tracks and he’ll be one of the drivers to beat. At Richmond he’s been very successful in his career. He’s won here three times and has finished in the top ten 61% percent of the time. Among the 23 venues on the circuit his top ten percentage is only better at two other tracks. Since fall 2004 at Richmond Harvick has only finished outside the top 12 twice. That’s amazing consistency which shouldn’t be overlooked. Last fall at Richmond Brad Keselowski dominated the race but Harvick was likely his biggest competition. He’s the only driver not named Keselowski who led. Harvick’s strength in the race was running the high-line and being good over long runs. Unfortunately in the closing segments he lost his handling a little bit and his car dropped off. Also his dedication to running the high-line was a weakness at times because when he had to run the low-line to get around cars the #4 looked average. In spring 2014 Harvick’s team used the race as a glorified test session. He ran well in the race. Through the first 220 laps he consistently ran in the top ten. After that point in the race his car dropped off a little and wasn’t as strong. When the checkered flag waved he finished 11th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Also in the race he started in 5th and led 23 laps. In fall 2013 he had one of the strongest cars and walked away with an asterisk mark 11th place finish. With 58 laps to go there was a caution during the pit cycle and at that time he was running in 2nd. That caution burned him because it came out at an unfavorable time and it dropped him back to the teens. In spring 2013 at Richmond Kevin Harvick drove the 29 car to victory lane. He only led 3 laps but they were the most important three. In that race he started in 17th, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Phoenix is the most similar track to Richmond and currently at that venue he has four straight wins. (Yahoo A Driver)
Further Recommended Reading – Front Runner Rankings, Mid Pack Predictions, Bristol Scouting Report, Who will win at Bristol
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Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon will be a contender at Richmond. Over the last five Richmond races he has the 2nd best driver rating and a 5.0 average finish. Last year he was very strong. He finished 2nd both races, scored the 2nd most points and had the 2nd best driver rating. In last fall’s runner-up effort he started in 2nd and never really ran lower than 5th. In spring 2014 Gordon had a very good car that was fast over long runs. In the race he started in 25th and it only took him 103 laps to take the lead. When the checkered flag waved he earned the best driver rating, finished 2nd, had a 4th place average running position and led 173 laps. In fall 2013 Jeff Gordon started off the race strong but faded over long runs. In the race he started on the pole and led the first 49 laps. After that things went downhill for him. His car was tight and by lap 186 he was back in 15th. On lap 224 Jeff Gordon was in 21st and had to come in for an unexpected pit stop. He had a loose right front and as a result he went two laps down. Shortly after that he raced his way back to being one lap down and moved into the “Lucky Dog” position. On lap 266 the caution came out and Jeff Gordon got back on the lead lap. Later in the race he was a driver who benefited from the caution that came out during a round of green flag pit stops. That got him a lot of track position and it’s the only reason he competed for a top ten at the end. When the checkered flag waved he finished 8th. In spring 2013 at Richmond he started in 3rd and finished 11th. That’s sounds good but in the race he really struggled. When the green flag waved he dropped in the running order like a rock. By lap 100 he was all the way back to about 25th. He then slowly worked his way to the front. In fall 2012 at Richmond Jeff Gordon finished 2nd. In that race his car was absolute junk. If it wasn’t for rain delays that gave his team time to come up with a game plan he would’ve finished very poorly. After the rain stopped they found something and it appeared he had one of the best cars. At Phoenix earlier this year Jeff Gordon was likely top 3 good but his team’s pit strategy at the end was poor (Yahoo Race Chart). When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th. (Yahoo A Driver)
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