Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Tony Stewart – Richmond has been one of Tony Stewart’s best tracks. He won his first race here in 1999 and has been to victory lane two more times since. Also at Richmond he’s finished in the top ten 61% percent of the time and in the top twenty 84% of the time. Last fall Stewart ran well and performed a little better than his 15th place finish. In the race he started in 19th and from lap 100 to the caution around lap 330 he typically ran between 9th and 13th. During the lap 330 caution pit cycle while he was running around 9th his pit crew dropped a lug nut and it dropped him back to 16th. If he didn’t have that problem than I think a top ten would’ve been achievable. In spring 2014 he wasn’t competitive. He started in 20th, had a 23rd place average running position, finished 25th and earned the 27th best driver rating. Also in the race he only ran in the top fifteen in .3% percent of the laps completed. In fall 2013 Stewart missed the race due to injury. In spring 2013 he likely had around a 10th place car but in the last quarter of the race he was involved in a minor wreck. At the very end during the green-white-checker he used pit strategy which got him in the top five but because of his tire disadvantage he quickly fell back in the running order to his 18th place result. In fall 2012 his car was strong and he led 15 laps and finished 4th. In that race he started back in 28th and it took him about 135 laps to crack the top ten. In spring 2012 Tony Stewart had the best car. When it came to long runs he was in a league of his own. If there wasn’t a late caution there’s no question he would’ve won. With 15 laps to go he had a three second lead over race winner Kyle Busch. In the event he led 118 laps, ran the most fast laps (66), had the third best driver rating (126.0) and finished 3rd. Earlier this year at Phoenix Tony Stewart looked like he would contend for a top ten but he was involved in an accident 4/5ths through the race. To give you a better idea about his level of performance here’s a link to his Yahoo Race Chart. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished in the top fifteen in 4 of the last 5 races. I don’t think anyone seen that coming. Phoenix is similar to Richmond and that venue was visited over this stretch. At Phoenix earlier this season he walked away with a 12th place finish. Also in his career at Phoenix he has a 15.0 average result and has finished in the top 18 every race. Last fall’s race at Richmond had few yellow’s and that’s bad news when you miss the setup like the #17 did. In that event he started in 7th but fell back quickly. Following the competition caution around lap 62 he was all the way back in 21st. From lap 100 to the conclusion he typically ran within a +4 / -4 deviation of 24th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 26th and earned the 24th best driver rating. In fall 2013 at Richmond Ricky Stenhouse Jr. earned the first top ten of his Sprint Cup career. In the race he finished 10th but it’s important to note he was a driver who benefited from a caution during a pit cycle with 58 laps to go. Prior to the caution he looked like a 15th to 20th place driver. In that race his average running position was 17th and he only ran in the top fifteen in 27% percent of the laps completed. In spring 2014 he was very uncompetitive. He started in 29th, had a 34th place average running position and finished 38th. His race last spring wasn’t incident free. On lap 296 while he was running around 32nd he got into the wall. Then while he was on pit road his car caught fire like a few others did that evening. If he didn’t get into the wall he looked like a 30th place driver at best. In spring 2013 at Richmond he didn’t perform as good as his result. He finished 16th but had a 22nd place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. (Yahoo B Driver)

Further Recommended Reading – Top Tier Elite Picks, Mid Pack Predictions, Front Runner Rankings, Scouting Report, Who will win at Richmond

Austin Dillon – Austin Dillon is no longer a rookie so let’s hope we see some natural improvement from him. Last season there was nothing special about either of his performances. Between the two events he finished two laps down in both races and had a 23.5 average finish. Last fall he started in 28th and raced his way up to 18th on lap 80. From that point he didn’t get much closer to the front without the help of restarts / pit cycles. When the checkered flag waved he finished in 20th and had a 20th place average running position. In his first start he wasn’t even close to being competitive. In that event he started in 27th, finished 27th, had a 26th place average running position and earned the 28th best driver rating. About the highest he ran in the running order in spring 2014 was 23rd. This spring at Phoenix Dillon had a quality performance. He finished 15th, earned the 15th best driver rating and had a 16th place average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)

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