Talladega Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Geico 500
Races at Talladega and Daytona provide fantasy owners with a lot of flexibility. You could make a case for picking literally any driver in the field on Sunday just because of how these races play out. There were two practice sessions on Friday, and those results can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget about our notes for each session: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Personally, I don’t put a lot of value in practice speeds for Talladega, and I probably won’t even look at them unless I am deciding between two picks and need a tiebreaker. I like to change up the format of this post for these restrictor plate races so don’t be alarmed.
Good luck with your picks this week and don’t think about them too much—these races are what I call the “entertainment events.”I’ll be going over two sets of drivers this week: those that have been good at the plate tracks as of late, and those that have overall momentum in Sprint Cup action. I won’t waste your time talking about the favorites heading into the Geico 500–you know who they are. Jeff Gordon won the pole for this Sunday’s race, and the full starting lineup can be found here.
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The Best at Plate Tracks Recently:
Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin and the #11 crew were probably the best when it came to restrictor plate tracks in 2014. In the four races (two at Daytona, two at Talladega), Hamlin finished 6th or better in three of them and never posted a result worse than 18th. Any fantasy racer knows that if you can consistently put up numbers like that at this of track, you have something good going on. Denny continued his streak of good runs in this year’s Daytona 500 by finishing 4th (despite starting 42nd). The #11 Toyota will roll off the grid in 17th here at Talladega on Sunday and I expect Hamlin to get up to the front quite quickly once the green waves. He’s one of those drivers that likes to run up front during plate racers, and those are the guys I like to put on my fantasy team. Oh, and did I mention that Hamlin is the defending winner of this race?
Casey Mears – Surprised? Don’t be. Casey Mears is the perfect gold mine fantasy driver that can put you well above your competition (especially in salary cap games). Germain Racing made the move to Chevrolet in 2014, which translated into much more horsepower. In addition to Mears improving on every other track type on the circuit, the results really showed at places like Daytona and Talladega. Casey is a master at staying out of trouble and now he has the car that can get him near the front when he makes his move at the end. More often than not, this is going to end up in a good finish. Mears has been especially good at Daytona as of late, posting a 4-race streak of top 10 finishes (not a typo) including a 6th in this year’s Great American Race. Here at Talladega, Casey ended up 14th in this event last season and followed that up with a 10th-place result in the fall race. Somehow this guy is still flying under the radar on restrictor plate tracks (just 8% have Mears on their roster in Yahoo! this week) but I would give a real hard look at putting the #13 Chevrolet on your fantasy roster this week. Also, if you’re a betting man, Mears is an excellent long shot pick.
Greg Biffle – As I said before, races at the restrictor plate tracks offer you opportunities to pick guys that you wouldn’t even consider in other weeks. Biffle nearly won this race at Talladega last season, leading 58 laps en route to a runner-up finish behind Denny Hamlin. However, that 2nd-place result gives The Biff four finishes of 11th or better in the last six races here at this 2.5-mile track. Not too shabby. Also, and for what it’s worth, Biffle has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last four Daytona 500s. For Sunday’s Geico 500 he will roll off the grid mid-pack (20th) which gives fantasy owners a pretty nice option in games like NASCAR.com Fantasy Live and FOX Fantasy Auto Racing where place differential is awarded points. Biffle also makes a decent option in allocation leagues because it’s not like you’re going to use him anywhere else.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Speaking of Roush-Fenway Racing, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is really, really good at restrictor plate races. I can’t explain it, nor am I going to try to. I’ll just say this: Stenhouse has been on my fantasy rosters for almost all Sprint Cup races at Daytona and Talladega since he entered the series. Looking at Talladega specifically, Ricky has never finished worse than 13th in three career starts (remember, he didn’t make the show here last fall). At Daytona, he started his career off with a four-race streak of top 20s, but in the last two events there Stenhouse has ended up 41st and 29th. Hey, you can’t be good all the time I guess. Still, I’m sticking with the #17 Ford here at Talladega for the time being, and for reasons similar to those I stated above with Greg Biffle. It’s nice to root for drivers that you barely even think about during “normal” races.
Clint Bowyer – Among active drivers with more than 3 career starts at Talladega, Clint Bowyer has the best average finish at this race track (14.4) with 10 top 10s and two victories in 18 races. The driver of the #15 Toyota finished 3rd in both races here at ‘Dega last season and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him up near the front once again on Sunday in the Geico 500. That makes it eight top 10 finishes in the last ten Talladega races for Bowyer, which is actually quite impressive when you really think about it. He also has four finishes of 11th or better in the last five points-paying Daytona races, so this guy can definitely wheel the car around a restrictor plate track. Another reason I really like Clint Bowyer in the Geico 500 this weekend is because this #15 team is starting to put together some good mojo, finishing 13th or better in three of the last four Sprint Cup races. Bowyer’s 9th-place finish at Richmond last weekend was his first top 10 since the season-opening Daytona 500 and had to feel somewhat like a win for this team. Bowyer needs another good run to keep his confidence high and that is definitely something that he is capable of at Talladega.
Driver With Momentum:
Often times we see that momentum and confidence play a role in how a driver performs at a plate race. It can’t be explained, and there’s probably no correlation, but I’m gonna roll with it.
Jeff Gordon – Who has the best average finish over the last 6 Sprint Cup races? Kevin Harvick? Jimmie Johnson? Maybe Kurt Busch? Wrong, wrong, wrong: it’s Jeff Gordon. Despite the fact that we’re not seeing the super fast #24 Chevrolet week in and week out thus far in 2015, the #24 team actually isn’t off to that bad of a start. With his 8th-place finish at Richmond last weekend, Gordon now has six straight finishes of 10th or better in Sprint Cup action and his car has been an absolute rocket ship here at Talladega all weekend. I know I said I didn’t care about practice speeds, but I needed to make that point. Jeff is a six-time winner here at Talladega but hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at this track since the 2012 season. That could definitely change this weekend. Gordon was also on the pole for this year’s Daytona 500 and looked to have a race-winning car, but a wreck relegated the Rainbow Warrior to a 33rd-place finish. He led 87 laps that day, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the #24 Chevrolet lead a handful of laps here at Talladega on Sunday as well.
Kurt Busch – Well, Kurt Busch finally got to victory lane last weekend at Richmond. I guess good things happen to teams that run the same setup as Kevin Harvick, right? Kurt has always been considered one of the better plate racers in the garage area but he’s too much of a hot head and an aggressive driver for me. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could easily finish top 5 on Sunday, but there’s a whole lot of risk there. Then again, I said Busch was a high-risk driver at Richmond, too, and he went out there and dominated the damn thing. Kurt has never won here at Talladega but there was a span of 7 races at this track back from 2004 to 2007 where he never finished worse than 8th in Sprint Cup action, which is very impressive. Busch will roll off the grid in 19th for this year’s running of the Geico 500.
Jamie McMurray – I really like Jamie McMurray as a mid-tier driver this week. One, he has long been considered one of the better plate racers in the garage, and although he more-like-than-not doesn’t get the finish he deserves, the talent is there. All it’s going to take for Jamie Mac to put up a solid finish is a little bit of luck, something that can be absorbed from reason number two why I like him this week: momentum. Believe it or not (I still don’t and I’m looking directly at the numbers) Jamie McMurray has a better average finish over the past 6 Cup races than most other drivers–a.k.a. everyone other than Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, and Kevin Harvick. That’s some pretty good company to be in. Jamie has won twice here at Talladega–most recently in 2013–and has two victories at Daytona as well, in 2007 and 2010. The #1 Chevrolet qualified 27th for Sunday’s Geico 500 so Jamie Mac would make a pretty good pick in FOX Fantasy Auto if he can finish up front.
Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex and the #78 team got back on the top 10 horse last weekend at Richmond with a 10th-place result, making it 8 top 10s in the first 9 Sprint Cup races of the 2015 season–and the best start to a season that Martin has ever had. Like I said before, momentum goes a long way in my mind at the races here at Talladega, so if you think the #78 team will be pumped up for Sunday and continue their good streak, why not take a shot with Truex? I just wouldn’t touch him in allocation leagues like Yahoo!. Martin finished 17th and 27th in the two races here at ‘Dega in 2014 but he posted results of 7th and 8th here in 2013. Also, in the 8 events here from 2010 to 2013, Truex only finished worse than 13th once, which is something I bet a lot of people didn’t know.
Joey Logano – “Sliced Bread” really isn’t known for his restrictor plate driving but let’s keep in mind that this is the Daytona 500 champion we’re talking about and those guys tend to do well at the rest of the restrictor plate races the year they win the Great American Race. Again, not science. Like Truex, Logano also has just one finish worse than 10th in the first 9 Cup races of 2015, and he has ended up inside the top 5 in three of the last four. We know that these Penske cars have the horsepower so if Joey finds himself near the front at the end of the day on Sunday it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him take another checkered flag. He’s never won here at Talladega in 12 career starts but Joey did post top 10 results in four of his first five starts at this track. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to crack the top 10 at this track since.
My Top 25 Heading Into Sunday:
1. Brad Keselowski
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Kasey Kahne
10. Joey Logano
11. Kasey Kahne
12. Jamie McMurray
13. Ryan Newman
14. Greg Biffle
15. Kurt Busch
16. Martin Truex, Jr.
17. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
18. Carl Edwards
19. Paul Menard
20. Danica Patrick
21. Kyle Larson
22. Casey Mears
23. Austin Dillon
24. A.J. Allmendinger
25. Tony Stewart
