Charlotte Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Coca-Cola 600
It’s somewhat hard to get a handle on who to pick in fantasy NASCAR this weekend simply because we have a whole lot of data. Now the important part is deciphering that data and throwing out the useless numbers. The Sprint Cup drivers ran non-points-paying races here at Charlotte last weekend, capped off by the All Star Race, which was won by Denny Hamlin. Speed from those events should translate over to the Coca-Cola 600 this weekend, but you have to take into account that some teams may have been experimenting with setups simply because it was the All-Star Race.
After qualifying on Friday, there were then two practice sessions held on-track on Saturday, but those were ran incredibly early in the day (the first one started at 10 am EST). In case you didn’t know, we’re racing at night on Sunday, so you have to put an asterisk next to those speeds. Those can be found here, by the way: Saturday Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out our notes for each: Saturday Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Matt Kenseth will lead the field to the green for this year’s Coke 600 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Coca-Cola 600:
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Same story, different week. I can’t find anything that I don’t like about Kevin Harvick and this #4 Chevrolet this weekend. He had a great car in last week’s All Star Race, he finished 2nd and 1st in the two points-paying races here last season, in nine of the last ten races here he has just one result worse than 11th, he’s won two of the last four Coca-Cola 600s…the list just goes on and on. For what it’s worth, this is the same chassis that Harvick and the #4 team used to dominate Darling and Phoenix last season. I know it’s getting old picking the #4 car week in and week out, but they’re just that good. Once again Harvick is a lock for a top 5 finish with a good shot at the win.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
The #48 team had to work on the car a little more than the #4 team this weekend but make no mistake about it, both cars are super fast and will challenge for the win. Jimmie Johnson won last year’s Coca-Cola 600 from the pole, and although he won’t start up front here on Sunday, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in victory lane once again when it’s all said and done. Back when this was Lowe’s Motor Speedway, Jimmie was the undisputed champion and dominated pretty much every time we came here. He has seven career points-paying victories at this track. With the name change, something happened, but “Six Time” has still had some pretty good runs, such as last year’s Coke 600 that I mentioned before. Momentum-wise, nobody in the garage is hotter than Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team right now, who has put together a string of five straight finishes of 3rd or better. Unless bad luck strikes this team on Sunday, that should be six in a row once the checkered flag waves.
3. Kurt Busch – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I still don’t know how I feel about the #41 team piggy-backing off of the #4 team when it comes to setups, but that’s not the point: once again Kurt Busch has a car that is capable of winning the race. He starts a little further back than I would like but it won’t take long for him to make his way to the front. Kurt’s record here at Charlotte leaves a lot to be desired (just seven top 10s in 29 career starts) but he did win both the All Star Race and the Coca-Cola 600 back in 2010 and has posted top 5 results in three of the last five 600 races. The #41 Chevrolet was very strong in last weekend’s All Star Race and that speed should translate over into Sunday’s Coke 600 as well. Kurt still hasn’t finished worse than 15th this season and that shouldn’t change this weekend.
4. Joey Logano – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Charlotte is a 1.5-mile race track so that means Joey Logano has to be in the conversation when it comes to the favorites. The kid is just a machine on this track type, and he’s actually been incredibly efficient here at Charlotte despite having just four top 5s in twelve career starts. And by efficient I mean he has the best average finish among all active drivers (seriously, I’m surprised, too). Joey’s worst finish at this track has been a 23rd-place result and he ended up 4th here last fall after grabbing a top 5 in the 2013 Coca-Cola 600. He has a great starting spot (as usual) for this year’s event but didn’t blow me away in practice by any means (remember, asterisk). For whatever reason, whenever Logano disappoints in practice, he races very well. My gut tells me that the #22 Ford will be a top 5 car on Sunday night and I’m sticking to it. I’ve had my concerns in the past about this team’s ability to keep up with the track but outside of Talladega and Martinsville, Joey has been a top 5 machine as of late.
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Junior has been a top 5 machine on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and he should be right there once again in Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600. In case you’re concerned about the lack of speed from Earnhardt in Happy Hour, the #88 team experimented with a setup in that session but Junior didn’t like it so they reverted back to their Practice #1 setup. He has a good car and he knows it, now he just has to bring it home. The only thing that Junior has going against him this weekend is that he hasn’t posted a top 10 finish in a points-paying race here at Charlotte since 2010. Yikes. Hopefully every one focuses solely on that and stays away from the #88 this weekend because I still have him top 5 going into Sunday. For what it’s worth, Junior is running the same chassis this weekend that he used to win both Pocono races last year.
6. Matt Kenseth – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Typically you don’t think that starting position matters much at a 1.5-mile race track but looking at Charlotte specifically over the last 5 years, there seems to be a trend among the pole sitters: in the ten points-paying races, the winner of the pole has gone on to finish inside the top 10 seven times, four of which were also top 5s. But that’s not even what I like most about Kenseth this weekend. Other variables going Matt’s way include: fast laps in both practice sessions on Saturday, his teammate winning the All Star Race, and the fact that this #20 team was “fine tuning” during that final practice session on Saturday. Any time you hear that, Kenseth has a really good car. Obviously there are still some concerns about the Joe Gibbs motors and whether they’re strong enough to compete with the Chevrolets, but it’s encouraging that Hamlin won the race last weekend, and we all know that the teams bring their absolute best equipment to races here at Charlotte. Kenseth finished 5th in this year’s All Star Race despite starting 17th and has finished 3rd in two of the last three points-paying races at this track, including last year’s running of the Coca-Cola 600. I’m optimistic that this #20 team can pull off a top 10 on Sunday night but I’m not getting my hopes up in terms of a top 5.
7. Jeff Gordon – Starts 18th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
It’s been an “under-the-radar” type of weekend for Jeff Gordon, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The #24 Chevrolet came home in 4th in last week’s All Star Race, and although I don’t have Gordon as a top 5 threat in Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600, it wouldn’t be out of this world to see him up front when it’s all said and done. Jeff is a five-time points-paying race winner here at Charlotte Motor Speedway and has ended up inside the top 10 in 24 of his 44 career starts here. Looking at recent numbers, Gordon hasn’t ended up worse than 7th in the last three races at this track and has seven top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup races this season. He’s not doing anything flashy (like leading laps) but Gordon is getting solid finishes, which definitely isn’t a bad thing in the fantasy world. Jeff is going to have some work to do on Sunday (he qualified 19th) but the Hendrick cars have good speed and Gordon is one of the best at taking care of his equipment, which should come into play in this 600-mile race. I’m expecting another solid top 10 out of this #24 team on Sunday.
8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Many people are probably wondering how an All Star Race win translates to running in the Coca-Cola 600. It’s up and down. Jamie McMurray (2014) finished 5th while Jimmie Johnson (2013) ended up 22nd. Johnson also won in 2012 and finished 11th in that year’s Coke 600. Carl Edwards finished a disappointing 16th in the 2011 Coca-Cola 600 after winning the All-Star Race, but Kurt Busch won both events in 2010. So what should we expect out of Denny Hamlin on Sunday night? Well, he starts 5th, which I am definitely a fan of. However, the practice sessions weren’t overly great for the #11 team on Saturday. With that being said, Denny had the 2nd-fastest ten-lap average during Happy Hour so he must’ve been doing something right. Although he’s never won a points-paying race here at Charlotte, Hamlin has eight top 10s in the last nine races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and unless something major goes wrong on Sunday night, I’m expecting him to make that nine of ten when the checkered flag waves. I don’t see Denny pulling the sweep and ending up in victory lane, though.
9. Brad Keselowski – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Brad Keselowski had a really strong car in last weekend’s All Star Race and I’m fully expecting that speed to translate over to Sunday night’s Coca-Cola 600. The Blue Deuce will roll off the grid in 6th when we get started and I fully expect Keselowski to run inside the top 10 all night long, maybe even the top 5. BK won the fall race here at Charlotte back in 2013, which is one of just two top 5 finishes he has here in 11 career starts. Even worse? Brad has just three total top 10s in points-paying races at Charlotte. I’m not concerned about that at all, though, as I don’t take history into account as much at this race track (compared to others). I don’t think the #2 Ford is a potentially winning race car going into this year’s Coke 600 but this is a looong race and that gives Paul Wolfe even more opportunity to strategize and try to pull off the upset.
10. Carl Edwards – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This weekend is the most impressive Carl Edwards has looked all season long, not that that means anything. This #19 team really just needs to finish a couple races and get this damn monkey off their back. I thought they finally hit on something with that top 10 finish at Texas back in April but Edwards hasn’t finished better than 19th since that event. Will this be the weekend that Carl finally comes through for fantasy owners? I think there’s a better-than-not possibility. Now the question is whether or not you’re willing to take the risk. Edwards went out and qualified 3rd on Friday, which is great, and then he backed that up with two very strong practice sessions on Saturday. He even showed up on the ten-lap average charts! Unheard of. Although he’s never won here, Charlotte is one of Cousin Carl’s best tracks on the circuit and he actually has the 2nd-best average finish here among active drivers (11.3). In the last seven points-paying races here, Edwards hasn’t had a result worse than 11th, and a Joe Gibbs machine did just win the All Star Race last weekend. I’m not trying to get everyone’s hopes up but this is looking like this might finally be the weekend this #19 team puts a full race together…or they’ll fall apart halfway through, as usual. Pick at your own risk, but keep in mind that a lot of people are going to be shying away from Carl this weekend, so if you want to be different…
11. Jamie McMurray – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I really liked Jamie McMurray heading into this weekend, but my hopes have dried up a little bit. Still, I think the #1 Chevrolet will be a fine sleeper pick on Sunday, and for a couple reasons. First, Jamie really likes this race track. He’s won two points-paying fall events at Charlotte and brought home the million dollars for the All Star Race win last season after taking the checkered flag in 2013’s Showdown race. Oh, and case you forgot, McMurray came home inside the top 5 in both races here last season and has the 2nd-best average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races (9.7 to Jimmie Johnson’s 7.3). Jamie is going to have some cars to pass come Sunday but I still view him as a solid threat for a top 10 finish. This team ran the most laps in Happy Hour on Saturday and you don’t do that if you’re not confident in your race package.
12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m not sure what to think of Truex this weekend. On the one hand, he’s been a top 10 machine this season, finishing inside that mark in 10 of the first 11 races we’ve ran. On the other hand, he was just decent in the Showdown race last weekend and Martin’s overall history here at Charlotte leaves a lot to be desired. With that being said, we need to keep a level head here: just as we’ve done all season long, we need to throw out history with Truex until he gives us a reason not to. He wasn’t that great at a lot of tracks earlier this season but week in and week out the #78 team is getting good finishes. The #78 Chevrolet will start 10th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 and had decent speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. My only concern? He ran 38 laps TOTAL over those two practices, which honestly is a bit of a red flag (just for comparison, McMurray ran 50+ laps in Happy Hour alone). I’m not expecting a top 10 finish out of Truex this weekend but then again it wouldn’t surprise me if he got it either…if that makes sense.
13. Kyle Busch – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Here’s another driver that I don’t know what to expect out of come Sunday. We have a 600-mile race to run this weekend and Rowdy is coming off of a pretty nasty injury. Erik Jones is on standby in case Busch feels the need to get out of the car, but I think we all know Kyle well enough to know that that isn’t going to happen. Busch drove his #18 Toyota to a nice 6th-place finish in the All Star Race last weekend, which makes me think he could surprise some people here on Sunday. Kyle qualified mid-pack for this year’s Coke 600 but he actually showed some pretty good speed during the practice sessions on Saturday. Looking at his history here at Charlotte, Rowdy has been as solid as you can get, with 14 single-digit finishes in the last 16 points-paying races. It’s going to be interesting to see how he races on Sunday and I honestly don’t know what to expect. My gut tells me the #18 Toyota will finish somewhere between 12th and 15th when it’s all said and done.
14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 33rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I liked Kasey Kahne more than usual heading into this race weekend and then he went and had tire issues in qualifying and will start way back in 33rd. Of course, it’s always something with this kid. That starting position alone makes me want to avoid the #5 Chevrolet this weekend but it’s hard to look past the fact that Kasey had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday. What’s not hard to look past, however, is the fact that Kahne has just one top 10 finish over the last four Sprint Cup races and he’s been a pretty big disappointment this entire season thus far. Still, Charlotte is one of Kahne’s best tracks on the circuit and he was pretty strong in the All Star Race despite ending up 7th. Personally, the only leagues that I would consider the #5 Chevrolet this weekend are those that award points for place differential, such as NASCAR.com, FOX, and DraftKings.
15. Greg Biffle – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Okay Biff, I’ll bite. I’ve been really hard on the Roush-Fenway organization this year, but they’ve also done nothing to prove me wrong…until the Sprint Showdown last weekend. Out of nowhere (at least in my mind) Greg Biffle came through and won the first segment. Of course he went on to be majorly disappointing in the All Star Race, but still. Then The Biff went out and qualified 4th for this year’s Coca-Cola 600. Maybe something is finally starting to click over at RFR. I doubt it but maybe. Biffle seems to think he has a decent car this week, which means you should expect a 12th to 15th-place run out of the #16 Ford. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my fantasy drivers, so I won’t be picking Biffle, but he might be worth a shot because he does start up front and was 4th on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour on Saturday.
