Dover FedEx 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Jimmie Johnson –  Jimmie Johnson is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Dover FedEx 400 and he’s always strong here. He’s the all-time win leader and on Sunday he’ll be vying for his 10th win. In 26 races at the Monster Mile Johnson has 9 wins, 5 poles, 14 top fives (54% top five finish percentage), 19 top tens (73% top five finish percentage) and has led 2,976 laps. Loop data wise since 2008 he’s performed at an elite level and is unrivaled. Over this 14 race stretch he has the best driver rating by 24 points, a 3.5 average running position and a 4.9 average finish. Last fall Johnson finished 3rd which was a disappointment when you consider his dominance. He failed to lead and was never a serious threat to win. He ran up front all race long having a 4th place average running position and earning the 4th best driver rating. What was really disappointing about his laps lead total is that in the 12 races prior to that he led in every race and averaged leading 201.6 laps per race. In June 2014 Johnson put on a display of dominance. He started in 4th and took the lead on lap 82. Of the remaining 318 laps he paced the field for 272 of them. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, had a 2nd place average running position and earned a near perfect driver rating. In September 2013 he won his 8th race and passed Richard Petty and Bobby Allison on the Dover all-time win list. Nobody could touch him that afternoon. He earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 243 laps. In spring 2013 he should’ve won but a late self-inflicted mistake took away his shot at the win. In that event he looked lost for about the first quarter of the race but after Chad Knaus tuned the 48 to his liking he clearly had the best car. His strength in the race was that his car could hug the bottom of the track better than anyone and maintain speed. In the closing laps Johnson looked like a lock to win but during a late pit stop Juan Pablo Montoya beat him off pit road and then Johnson jumped a restart. That led to him getting black flagged and finishing 17th with a car that should’ve won. Also in that race he led 143 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. (Yahoo A Driver)

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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick will be a contender to win the Dover FedEx 400. In 2014 he had the best car both races but walked away with misleading results. Last fall he had the field covered. In that event he started on the pole, led 223 laps but finished 13th. The key moment for him in the race was on lap 252 when he had a left front tire flat. That dropped him down a lap back to about 20th. Prior to that there’s no question he had the best car. In June 2014 he also had the best car but had valve stem issues which led to a flat. In that race on lap 165 while he was leading that issue occurred and it dropped him down two laps. Prior to his flat he led 24 laps. His Yahoo Race Chart does a good job portraying his level of competitiveness. When the checkerboard flag waved he finished 17th. Between 2010 and 2013 at Dover he was extremely consistent. In the races over that stretch he had an 8.9 average finish, 10.5 average running position and the 6th best driver rating. In fall 2013 he ran well. He ran between 12th and 16th through the first 300 laps but in the last 100 laps he drove hard and wheeled the #29 car to a 6th place finish.  In spring 2013 he had a good performance. He started 7th, had a 7th place average running position, and finished 8th. In fall 2012 he finished 13th but that finish deserves an asterisk mark because he was a driver who got burned by an early caution during the pit cycle. If that didn’t happen I would put my money on him finishing in the top ten. In spring 2012 he unquestionably had one of the best cars and finished 2nd. In that event he started in 6th, drove up to 3rd, fell back to the high teens around the mid-point because of a long pit stop but rebounded by driving up through the field passing everyone except Jimmie Johnson. In 2011 Kevin Harvick finished 10th in both races. (Yahoo A Driver)

Further Recommended Reading – Front Runner Rankings, Mid Pack Predictions, Yahoo C List Preview, Dover Scouting Report, Who will win at Dover

Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has been a serious contender at Dover in recent races. In four of the last five he’s finished in the top 5. In 2014 Keselowksi finished runner-up in both races. Last fall he was extremely fast. In that event he started 4th, finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 78 laps. In June 2014 he had a strong car. He started on the pole and through the first 160 laps I would estimate his average running position was around 6th. During the middle portion of the race his car became extremely loose but when it got tuned to his liking he was as good as anyone not named Jimmie Johnson. Over the final 140 laps he was a driver who consistently ran in the top five. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In fall 2013 at Dover he had his worst result to date. On lap 226 he was running in 12th but he came to pit road because he was leaking fluid. Right after that he went straight to the garage area. When the checkered flag waved he finished 45 laps down in 37th. In spring 2013 he had a good performance. In that event he had a 9th place average running position, earned the 7th best driver rating and finished 5th. In fall 2012 at Dover the race wasn’t decided by who had the fastest car, it was decided by who had the best fuel mileage strategy and that driver was of course Brad Keselowski. If that race played out traditionally he likely would’ve finished 4th. By no means was he better than Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson or Denny Hamlin. In that race he started in 10th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. (Yahoo A Driver)

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > Yahoo C List Preview