Dover Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – FedEx 400

Dover International Speedway–nicknamed “The Monster Mile”–is the best of both worlds, in my opinion: we technically have a short track (1-mile in length) but with intermediate track-like speeds. Additionally, these are some of my favorite races to watch because we typically see some great racing. Also, making fantasy picks here at Dover is typically pretty easy because the races are pretty straightforward. On Friday, Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks and the full starting lineup can be found here. We then had two practice sessions on Saturday, and those speeds are here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also don’t forget to check out our notes for each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The FedEx 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Many achievements that Jimmie Johnson has are incredible, but what might be one of the most impressive is his record here at Dover. I’m not kidding. This isn’t exactly an easy track to race on, and he’s thoroughly dominated here multiple times. In case you didn’t know, NASCAR has a “driver rating” calculation for each driver in every race. A rating of 150.0 is perfect and anything 140.0 or above requires a near-perfect race. We don’t see many ratings that high in Sprint Cup races (for reference, only one driver has had a rating above 140.0 in the last four points-paying events). Well, here at Dover, Jimmie Johnson has made 26 career starts and has had a driver rating of 140.0 or better in six of them. That’s 23 percent. And ridiculous. So it goes without saying that the #48 Chevrolet is a shoo-in fantasy pick this weekend, maybe not for a win but at least a top 5. “Six Time” is a nine-time winner at this track and has ended up 4th or better in six of the last seven races ran here. The #48 team missed it a little in qualifying so Johnson will roll off the grid in 14th on Sunday but that just makes him that much better of a pick for games at DraftKings, NASCAR.com, and FOX, where position difference plays into scores. Jimmie was 4th-fastest in Practice #2 and had the second-best ten-lap average in that session behind Kurt Busch. He solidly ranked 6th on the Happy Hour speed chart. It’s very rare that Jimmie Johnson has two bad weeks in a row, so keep that in mind if you’re thinking about avoiding him with your fantasy teams on Sunday. I have him ranked above Harvick this week because I’m sick of constantly putting Harv P1. Both should challenge for the FedEx 400 win.

2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

If you’re a fantasy racer that wants to take a break from picking Kevin Harvick, here’s your chance. I wouldn’t recommend it, but this is one track where you can justify your actions. Harvick has made 28 career starts at “The Monster Mile” and has yet to visit victory lane. That’s not overly terrible, but the fact that he has only finished inside the top 5 on THREE occasions is a cause for concern. There’s no doubt in my mind that he can make that four here on Sunday, though, and we all know the #4 Chevrolet will have the horsepower. Harvick qualified 6th for this year’s FedEx 400 and ranked 8th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. In Happy Hour, he was 7th on the overall speed chart and ranked 5th in ten-lap average. Keep in mind that Kevin won the pole here at Dover last fall and led 223 laps but ended up finishing 13th after a cut tire halfway through the race. This #4 team hasn’t had the bad luck that they did in 2014–if you consider eventually winning the Sprint Cup championship bad luck–so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him get his first career victory at Dover on Sunday. Interesting fact, by the way: Harvick’s 9th-place finish at Charlotte last weekend is his 2nd-worst result thus far in 2015. Incredible.

3. Denny Hamlin – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Is it still too early to say that Joe Gibbs Racing has hit on something? All four JGR Toyotas were inside the top 5 on the Happy Hour speed chart on Saturday, led by pole sitter Denny Hamlin. If you don’t think that JGR as a whole has hit on something, the #11 team definitely has: they went out and won the All Star Race a couple of weekends ago, could have won the Coca-Cola 600 last weekend, and now they’re on the pole for Sunday’s FedEx 400 at Dover. Oh, and the #11 Toyota was fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning as well as Happy Hour and had the best ten-lap average in that final session, too. Now for the bad news: Denny isn’t that great here at “The Monster Mile.” Over 18 career starts at Dover, Hamlin has an average finish of just 19.2 and three top 5s. He has yet to get to victory lane at this race track, but it’s bound to happen eventually. Will it happen on Sunday? I think Denny will be in the conversation, but as far as a flat-out favorite, I don’t believe so. It’s hard to overlook the speed shown in practice as well as Hamlin’s starting spot for Sunday, though…

4. Kurt Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

With his 10th-place finish at Charlotte last weekend, Kurt Busch still hasn’t majorly disappointed fantasy owners in 2015…yet. It’s going to happen sooner or later. Places like Dover worry me because tempers are much more likely to flare here than, say, Charlotte. However, while Dover is a 1-mile race track, there’s still quite a bit of room to race here. You never know what’s going to happen on race day, though, and the #41 Chevrolet has great speed once again this weekend and that’s pretty much all you can do when it comes to fantasy NASCAR: pick the fast cars. Kurt wasn’t great in qualifying on Friday but he’ll roll off the grid in 13th for the FedEx 400. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, he ended up with the 3rd-fastest overall lap and the best ten-lap average. He was very happy with his race car after that session. In Happy Hour, the #41 Chevrolet was 7th in ten-lap average and ranked P10 in terms of one fast lap. Kurt Busch won the fall 2011 race here at Dover but hasn’t posted a result better than 12th at this track since. That could easily change on Sunday, and the reason I said “could” and not “should” is because of Kurt’s history here: in 29 career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Busch has just eight top 10 finishes and an average result of 18.2. With that being said, however, Kurt is running a lot better right now than he has over the course of his career. I think he has a shot at a top 5 on Sunday.

5. Matt Kenseth – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Believe it or not, Matt Kenseth likes Dover and he’s good here, too. And you should know by now that when he shows speed before the green flag, the competition better look out. Kenseth will start Sunday’s FedEx 400 from the 4th position and I fully expect him to run top 5 all day. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Matt was 10th on the overall speed chart and had the 7th-best ten-lap average. By Happy Hour, he improved those rankings to 4th and 3rd, respectively. Like I said earlier, Joe Gibbs Racing is heating up right now and have finally found some speed. I’d recommend riding the wave because we should see some very good runs out of the JGR drivers this weekend. Kenseth is a two-time Sprint Cup winner here at Dover International Speedway and has finished 7th or better in 11 of the last 14 events here. Not too shabby if you ask me.

6. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Everybody likes an underdog story. Martin Truex, Jr. is the definition of an underdog right now. It’s been the same sad song for his entire career: the guy just can’t catch a break. And this is amplified when he’s running exceptionally well. Truex had the best car at Charlotte last weekend but didn’t get the win. Now we’re at Dover, which–until this season–was one of two tracks that you could reliably pick Martin in fantasy and be satisfied with the result (the other being Homestead). In 2015 it seems as though the #78 Chevrolet is a solid pick week in and week out, as Truex has scored the second-most points this season behind Kevin Harvick. Looking at Dover specifically, it’s Martin’s home track and his first Cup win came here back in 2007. He finished 6th and 7th in the two races here last season–his first campaign with Furniture Row–and you can definitely count on him for another top 10 here on Sunday. The question is whether the #78 Chevrolet is good enough to get a top 5, or possibly even a win. Truex will roll off the grid 2nd when the FedEx 400 goes green on Sunday and he had good speed during the first practice session on Saturday, ending up 11th on the chart. This team was searching for speed in Happy Hour and wound up 20th on the overall chart, which is a little concerning. However, I think they’ll figure it out, and the struggles Truex had in that final session is only going to deter other fantasy racers from picking him this week. Plenty of eyes are going to be on Truex this weekend and most of them would love to see him in victory lane.

7. Joey Logano – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Last week at Charlotte we all witnessed what some (myself included) have been saying for a couple of months now: this #22 team really struggles with keeping up with a changing race track. Even the NASCAR announcers said something about it during the Coca-Cola 600, which says a lot because they’re clueless most of the time. The race here at Dover on Sunday won’t have much change weather-wise but the track will change a bit as rubber gets laid today. Still, this is a very straightforward event and we’re not going to see a huge amount of changes in the track over the course of the FedEx 400 like we would at other places. This helps Joey Logano and the #22 team, as does the fact that he has been very good here as of late, posting six straight top 10 finishes at “The Monster Mile.” Logano qualified 5th for Sunday’s race and was 7th-fastest in Practice #2. In Happy Hour he was 11th on the speed chart but I’m not sure about ten-lap average because NASCAR’s reporting system was off. I don’t see why this #22 Ford won’t at least be a top 10 threat this weekend, if not top 5.

8. Carl Edwards – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Well, the monkey is finally off the #19 team’s back, but I’m not ready to confidently pick Carl Edwards every week in fantasy now. I want to see how this team responds first. Last week’s win was anything but a dominating effort, but a win is a win and there’s a lot less pressure on the #19 crew now. Looking at this week, Edwards looks to have some speed and should be able to challenge for a top 10. He qualified 8th for this year’s FedEx 400 and backed that up with the 2nd-fastest lap in Practice #2 and the 2nd-best lap in Happy Hour. He ranked 5th and 2nd on ten-lap average charts for those sessions. At Dover, Carl owns a very impressive 10.2 career average finish with one victory and twelve top 10s in his twenty-one career starts. From 2006 to 2008, there was a five-race streak in which Edwards never finished worse than 3rd here; he has the nickname “Concrete Carl” for a reason. He hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at “The Monster Mile” since the fall 2012 race but that can partially be attributed to the struggles Roush-Fenway had as an organization. It seems as though the Gibbs teams have hit on something as of late and that’s good news for Carl’s fantasy owners.

9. Jeff Gordon – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Jeff Gordon has some work to do to get to the top 10 here on Sunday but I have faith in him. This #24 team has improved their Chevrolet all weekend long and that’s why I have him ranked higher than most other fantasy NASCAR experts do heading into the FedEx 400. I’m confident in my prediction, though. Jeff was 21st-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning with the 6th-best ten-lap average. By the end of Happy Hour, though, he ranked 9th and 4th on those two charts, respectively. Gordon is a five-time winner here at Dover and has finished 4th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races at this track–including his win in last year’s fall race. Like I have said many times this week, the familiar faces will more than likely find their way to the front here on Sunday. Dover is kind of like Martinsville: in most races, guys like Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are going to finish up front. I don’t know if Gordon can get to the top 5 this weekend but a top 10 finish is well within reach for him.

10. Kyle Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

It’s hard to predict how good of a fantasy option Kyle Busch will be this weekend because of the whole injury issue. He ran the whole event and finished 11th in last weekend’s Coca-Cola 600, though, so I’m not overly worried about it. With that being said, if the injury didn’t happen, Kyle Busch would be ranked a lot higher right now and would also be a “Low Risk” option. Rowdy has two career victories here at “The Monster Mile” with the most recent coming back in 2010. Since that win, he’s been a top 10 machine at Dover, posting a result of 10th or better in eight of the last ten events. Looking at this weekend, the #18 Toyota has some good speed once again and Kyle will roll off the grid in 10th. Busch ranked 12th on the overall speed chart in Practice #2 but improved to 5th during Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, Rowdy was 3rd in the first session and we don’t have data from Happy Hour. I’m expecting a solid run out of Kyle Busch on Sunday and a top 10 finish for his fantasy owners.

11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Junior is probably going to finish better than 11th but I just like the above ten drivers more than the #88 Chevrolet heading into Sunday. Once again, Earnhardt didn’t have a great qualifying effort this weekend but that hasn’t hindered him very much in other races this season. In this event one year ago, Junior qualified 13th and ended up finishing 9th. Looking at the last six Cup races here at Dover, the #88 Chevrolet has come home 11th or better in five of them with the lone exception being Junior’s 17th-place performance in the fall race last season. The #88 was 9th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but regressed back to 19th by the end of Happy Hour. I think Junior has a shot at a top 10 finish in the FedEx 400 here on Sunday but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to get to the top 5. Personally, I’d check out some of the other top fantasy options this weekend at Dover and save Junior for a later race.

12. Brad Keselowski – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I know this ranking probably seems very low, especially considering that Brad Keselowski finished 2nd in both races here at Dover last season and has ended up 5th or better in four of the last five, but the #2 Ford just seems off this weekend and heading into Sunday, it’s not a top car. I can say that with absolute confidence. Now, that doesn’t mean that this #2 crew won’t be able to adjust on the car throughout the race, and Paul Wolfe is one of the best strategic crew chiefs in the garage area. Keselowski starts mid-pick for the FedEx 400 (19th) and he ended Happy Hour with just the 15th-fastest lap. BK was 23rd on the Practice #2 speed chart. Honestly, when I pick a guy like Keselowski, I’m expecting a top 5 finish, and going into the race this weekend I don’t think that’s within reach for Bad Brad. Go ahead and take the Blue Deuce if you want on Sunday but you won’t see Keselowski on many of my rosters.

13. Paul Menard – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I really like Paul Menard as a sleeper fantasy option this weekend. Actually, I have since early in the week when I wrote about him in my Sleepers post over at Fantasy Racing Online. In this race one year ago, Paul grabbed his first top 10 finish here at Dover since the 2010 season and then he followed that up with a decent 16th-place finish here in the fall. Practice-wise, the #27 Chevrolet ranked 20th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then Menard went out and posted the 3rd-best lap in Happy Hour with the 6th-fastest ten-lap average. Did this #27 team find something in that final session? Possibly. Menard is one of those drivers that you can count on for a solid top 15 finish pretty much every week, but every now and then they will really break out with a top 10 or maybe even a top 5. If nothing goes wrong on Sunday it wouldn’t surprise me very much to see Menard end up around 10th or so, which would be a nice result in some fantasy leagues.

14. Kyle Larson – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 18th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This #42 team needs a kick in the ass right now because Kyle Larson looks like he’s in the sophomore slump more and more each week. “The Phenom” made his first two career Cup starts here at Dover last season and qualified 5th and 7th, which was great. Even better? He came home 11th and 6th. This weekend, Larson qualified 3rd, and judging by his practice times it looks like the #42 Chevrolet is good enough to challenge for a top 10 finish. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Kyle laid down the 6th-fastest lap and ended up 4th on the ten-lap average speed chart. In Happy Hour, he ranked 16th on the speed chart. The only concern I have with picking Larson right now is that he just can’t seem to catch a break. This team hasn’t had a top 10 finish since Bristol back in mid-April, and with the way teammate Jamie McMurray is running and with the talent Larson has, that drought shouldn’t be happening to them. Taking the slump out of the equation, I think Larson can finish top 10 in Sunday’s FedEx 400. Now it’s up to you on whether or not you want to try and look past that.

15. Clint Bowyer – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Clint Bowyer makes my list this weekend for one reason and one reason only: his history at this race track. Currently, Clint is on an eight-race streak of top 10s here at Dover, and that has to count for something. Like I said earlier, the normal faces typically end up near the front every time we come to “The Monster Mile.” It’s going to be tougher for Bowyer, though, because this #15 team has had a ROUGH season thus far and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change soon. This #15 Toyota will roll off the grid mid-pack on Sunday and I’m not expecting Bowyer to move up very quickly. Still, a top 15 is well within reach. Clint was 25th on the overall speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but improved that to 13th-fastest by the end of Happy Hour. There are very few leagues that I would recommend picking Clint this weekend but if you make your rosters based solely on past track performance, the #15 is one of the better options.