Michigan Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1)Kevin Harvick (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
Quick Michigan Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Michigan Quicken Loans 400. He’s been the man to beat at high-speed intermediate tracks this year and you can’t overlook his 4 straight Michigan runner-up finishes. On Sunday Harvick will be driving the chassis he drove to victory lane at Las Vegas and finished 2nd with at Kansas. The tire combination that’s being used this weekend was also used in both of those events. In practice Kevin Harvick has been extremely fast and he seems happy with his car. In Happy Hour Harvick said it will be tough to pass so his second place starting position will be a huge advantage.
Michigan History – Michigan has been a great track for Harvick. He’s a former winner and currently he has 4 consecutive runner-up finishes. Last August he was very strong and was a consistent front runner. In addition to finishing 2nd he also earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. In June 2014 he had a great car and I would argue it was the best. If he didn’t have inferior pit strategy at the end I think he would’ve found himself in victory lane. In that race he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps and had a 4th place average running position. In 2013 Harvick finished second both races but was never a serious threat to win. In the six combined races on the new surface at Michigan Harvick has the best average finish (5.7) and the third best driver rating.
Recent Similar Track Trends – In the six races at high-speed intermediate tracks this season Kevin Harvick has scored the most points, has 1 win, 4 runner-up results and a 3.0 average finish. Also in the races on this track type he has a 3.5 average running position, has led the most laps (467) and has run the most fast laps (315).
Momentum – Over the last six races Kevin Harvick has scored the most points, has 4 runner-up finishes and has a 4.2 average finish. In the last two races he’s finished 2nd.
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2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 9th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
Quick Michigan Fantasy Spin – In fantasy NASCAR Martin Truex Jr. can’t do anything wrong. In the last four straight races he’s been the driver to beat. Let’s hope that momentum continues over to Michigan. This season at high-speed intermediate tracks Truex Jr. has ranked as one of the best drivers. Last week at Pocono Truex Jr. drove a new chassis and went to victory lane. This week he’s once again rolling out a new chassis. At Michigan Martin Truex Jr. has experienced some success but last year was rough on him. In final practice Martin Truex Jr. has very happy with his car and said it was near perfect. That could mean trouble for the competition on Sunday.
Michigan History – Martin Truex Jr. had a dismal 2014 at Michigan. Last August he missed qualifying and started in the rear of the field. That ultimately led to him getting caught up in the early “Big One”. Last June his race went downhill early. In that race Larson spun on lap 7 and he ran into the back of him which damaged the nose of the #78. In the four Michigan races prior to that he ran well and had a 10.3 average finish, 11.8 average running position and earned the 6th best driver rating. In August 2013 he started in 17th, had a 17th place average running position and finished 16th. In June 2013 he had his best performance since the repave. He started in 13th, had a 7th place average running position, finished 3rd and earned the third best driver rating. In 2012 Truex had results of 10th and 11th. In 2007 Truex Jr. had his best year at Michigan and finished runner-up both races.
Recent Similar Track Trends – In the last two races at high-speed intermediate tracks Truex Jr. has been the driver to beat. At Kansas and Charlotte he led the most laps, had a 6.0 average running position and a 7.0 average finish. For the season on this track type he’s scored the 4th most points and in one of four drivers who have finished in the top ten every race.
Momentum – Nobody has more momentum than Martin Truex Jr coming off his win at Pocono. In the last 4 races he’s led the most laps (454), has run the most fast laps (202), has a 2.5 average running position and a 5.3 average finish.
Further Recommended Reading – Michigan Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Michigan Practice Speeds / Notes Center, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Michigan Starting Lineup, Importance Of Starting up Front at Michigan, DraftKings NASCAR Points From The Last Race At Michigan
3) Jimmie Johnson (Starting – 8th) (Odds To Win –6/1)
Quick Michigan Fantasy Spin – Jimmie Johnson will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win at Michigan. He always run well here but it has been somewhat of a trouble spot. Last June he finally overcame his bad luck at MIS and reached victory lane for the first time. Strength wise he should probably have about 5 wins here. There’s two key attributes I really like about Johnson that you’ll read below. I like his momentum and how well he’s run at high-speed intermediate tracks this year. In Happy Hour Jimmie Johnson had good speed. At times he liked his car and at others he didn’t. That says his team is probably has a baseline setup and they were doing some experimenting.
Michigan History – Jimmie Johnson has been very strong at Michigan. He should probably have at least 5 wins, but yet he only has one. At Michigan he’s had a lot of bad luck over the years. He’s been cheated out of wins by getting flat tires, running out of gas and motor failures. Last August he had a very strong showing but he broke his shifter in the first quarter of the race and that had him playing “catch up” for much of the afternoon. Before he had his problem he was top five good. When the checkered flag waved he rallied up to a 9th place finish. Also in that race he earned the 10th best driver rating and led 21 laps. Last June he had a fast car and raced his way to his first Michigan win. In the race I think Harvick had a better car but Johnson had superior pit strategy at the end. In the race Johnson earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 39 laps. In the three Michigan races prior to that event Johnson had tough luck. In August 2013 Johnson had a phenomenal car. He started in the rear of the field but it didn’t take him long to get near the front. By lap 31 he was already up to 15th. Unfortunately his race didn’t go on much longer than that. On lap 54 he was on pit road with his hood up and his race was over. Before his issue he was running around 10th. In June 2013 Johnson had the one of the best cars but his stats line and result doesn’t reflect that. He started in 17th and by lap 65 he raced his way up to the lead. His race was far from problem free. While he was running in 2nd on the lap #81 restart Dale Earnhardt Jr. (leader) spun his tires and Johnson hesitated on the restart and as a result he lost about 10 positions. Then later in the race after Dale Earnhardt Jr. blew up Chad Knaus made another poor decision to get four tires and nearly everyone else got two. That put him deep in the field. He rallied back strong though. With 9 laps to go he drove all the way up to 2nd but with three laps to go he had a flat tire and as a result finished 28th. In August 2012 he was leading with 5 laps to go but his engine blew up. In June 2012 he started in the rear of the field and drove up to a 5th place finish.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Jimmie Johnson has been awesome at high-speed intermediate tracks when he avoids trouble. In his four 2015 incident free races he has a 3.0 average finish, 7.3 average running position and has led 230 laps. Also it should be noted he’s won half the races on this track type in 2015.
Momentum – Since Texas minus Charlotte Johnson has finished in the top 3 every race and has a 1.9 average finish.
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