Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamiln was a good road course racer early in his career but he’s lost his touch. In his first four races at Watkins Glen he finished in the top ten. In his last five races there he has a best finish of 19th and a 30th place average finish. At Sonoma his success is also front loaded. In three of his first four races here he finished in the top ten but in the last five races his average finish is 31st. It’s hard recommending a driver when they’ve lacked success for such a prolonged time. Last summer he showed promise and was better than his 26th place finish. With 11 laps to go while he was running in 15th he spun with a little help from Newman. Also in the race it should be noted he had a 15th place average running position. In 2013 he had his best recent result. He finished 23rd, had a 24th place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. Early in the race it looked like he had a low teen’s car but around lap 30 under caution he got busted speeding on pit road. Later in the race on lap 67 Tony Stewart got into the back of him and it dropped Hamlin to 33rd in the running order. In 2012 Hamlin was much better than his 35th place finish. What happened to him is that late in the race he was spun by Joey Logano in turn #11 and then a little later he had suspension issues. If he didn’t have problems it looked like he had top ten potential. His next two most recent Sonoma finishes are 37th and 34th. (Yahoo A Driver – DraftKings – $11,000)

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Austin Dillon – Last year on road courses Austin Dillon was a consistent driver. Between the combined events he scored the 15th most points and had results of 16th and 17th. His 17th place result came at Sonoma. In the event he was never that competitive. He had a 22nd place average running position and earned the 23rd best driver rating. At Watkins Glen last year his afternoon was very similar and at that venue he finished 16th, had a 21st place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. In the lower series at road courses there was nothing special about his performances on this track type. (Yahoo B Driver – DraftKings – $8,800)

Recommended Reading – Sonoma Top Tier Elite Picks, Sonoma Front Runner Rankings, Sonoma Scouting Report, Sonoma Asterisk Mark Report, Sonoma PROS Rankings, DraftKings Points From The Race Last Year at Sonoma

Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola has four starts under his belt at Sonoma and in every race he’s finished in the 20’s. In his combined starts he has a 23.7 average finish and a 23.3 average running position. Part of success at running well at road courses is starting up front and his 30.3 average starting position has done him no favors. Last June he wasn’t even close to competitive. He started 29th, had a 24th place average running position, earned the 24th best driver rating and finished 23rd. Outside of moments where he ran artificially high because of pit cycles about the highest he got in the running order was 20th. In 2013 he had his best performance but keep in mind the bar is really low. He started in 32nd, had a 19th place average running position, finished 20th and earned the 20th best driver rating. In 40% percent of the laps completed he ran in the top fifteen. In 2012 he finished 28th. In that race he started in 30th, had a 27th place average running position and earned the 27th best driver rating. In 2008 during Mark Martin’s first part time retirement stint he also finished 28th. Last year at Watkins Glen Almirola finished 18th. (Yahoo B Driver – DraftKings – $8,200)

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