Sonoma Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Toyota/Save Mart 350

11. Joey Logano – Starts 19th– Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I read earlier this week that Joey Logano was using a racing simulator to try and get better here at Sonoma, which actually isn’t all that crazy. Remember, Denny Hamlin credited his early success at Pocono to racing video games he used to play. Anyway, it can take a while for a driver to master the road course tracks in NASCAR, and that seems like it’s going to be the case for Logano, too. His record here at Sonoma isn’t terrible (15.8 career average finish) but then you remember that Joey only has two top 10s in six starts here. Again, not terrible, but not the type of finishes you expect out of a guy like Logano, either. The good news is that this #22 team seems to have gotten back on their “running well” horse. After a couple weeks of struggle at Charlotte and Dover, Logano has put up back-to-back top 5 finishes at Pocono and Michigan. I doubt he will be able to make it three-in-a-row here at Sonoma on Sunday, but anything can happen…especially when you’re already locked into the Chase. Don’t forget, these Penske Fords tend to have great gas mileage, and that has come into play more often than not at Sonoma.

12. Matt Kenseth – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

If I’m being completely honest, Matt Kenseth only gets this rank because of his qualifying effort on Saturday. We all know how important it is to start up front at a track like Sonoma, so this #20 team has that working for them this weekend. But like I said earlier, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas look off on speed once again, and I don’t think it’s going to be able to be fixed overnight. The weather is supposed to be pretty similar on Sunday as it was during the practice sessions on Friday so these teams won’t be able to luck into any major change of conditions. On a positive note, the fact that Matt was able to qualify 3rd tells me that this #20 team was able to find some sort of speed in this Toyota between Friday and Saturday. I highly doubt Kenseth will be able to stay up front during the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday, but it wouldn’t be out of this world to see him end up inside the top 15 when it’s all said and done. For the record, Kenseth hasn’t finished top 10 at Sonoma since the 2008 season, and that has also been his only top 10 result at this track in 15 career starts. Translation: don’t expect the world out of Kenseth on Sunday.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I had pretty high hopes for Dale Earnhardt, Jr. coming into the Toyota/Save Mart 350 weekend. Hell, I had him ranked 7th. With that being said, after practice and qualifying, I’m not as optimistic. Junior will roll off the grid in 20th when we go green on Sunday, but part of that was because the #88 Chevrolet had a shifting issue in qualifying and the car was stuck in second gear. I’m fully confident that this team will get that issue figured out to there’s still some room for hope in my eyes. Earnhardt posted his first top 5 finish of his career here at Sonoma last season after ending up 12th in the 2013 race. I know when you pick a guy like Earnhardt, you’re expecting a top 5 finish, but that’s just not going to happen this weekend unless something crazy happen. At best I see Dale as a top 10 pick on Sunday, but he’ll probably end up in the teens.

14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 26th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

I’m going to go out on a little limb here and guess that Kasey Kahne isn’t one of the top drivers you think of when we come to a road course track like Sonoma. Hell, he might not even be in your top 10. But when you look at the stats, there’s room for Kahne to enter the discussion. He did win here at Sonoma back in 2009, and has ended up 6th in each of the last two events at this track. And last season at Watkins Glen, Kasey posted his career-best finish in eleven starts: 12th. Obviously the latter isn’t that great but it shows that KK is making progress. With that being said, Kahne is up and down here at Sonoma, just like he is pretty much everywhere else. He does have those four results of 6th or better in the last six races, but then again Kasey has ended up outside of the top 20 in almost half of his starts at this race track. I had him ranked 9th coming into the race weekend but a top 15 finish is looking much more likely for Kahne on Sunday. For what it’s worth, Kahne had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Too bad he qualified 26th (ouch).

15. Kyle Larson – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Kyle Larson and this #42 team have some momentum building right now and I like it. Before Michigan a couple of weeks ago, Larson put together back-to-back top 10 finishes at Dover and Pocono, and then he went out and almost lucked into a win at Michigan. Hey, a win’s a win, and it has to give him confidence that they almost pulled it off. “The Phenom” went out and qualified 4th on Saturday for this weekend’s Toyota/Save Mart 350. He also started top 5 in this race one year ago and disappointed fantasy owners with a 28th-place finish. Then, at Watkins Glen last season, Kyle started 23rd and went out and finished 4th. Of course. During an interview after qualifying this weekend, Larson didn’t sound too impressed with his car in race trim and was surprised they qualified well, so don’t get your hopes too high for this #42 Chevrolet on Sunday. Kyle should be a top 15 to 20 car, and it helps that he starts up front (and that’s why he’s ranked higher than some of these other guys).

The Next Ten:

16. Ryan Newman
17. Tony Stewart
17. Denny Hamlin
18. Casey Mears — Don’t sleep on him this week. Read what I think about Mears here.
19. Greg Biffle
20. Kyle Busch — Way too much risk. I’d avoid. Hasn’t finished top 10 here since win in 2008.
21. Paul Menard
22. Danica Patrick
23. Aric Almirola
24. David Ragan
25. Sam Hornish, Jr.