Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kurt Busch (Starting – 2nd) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Sonoma Fantasy Bottom Line – Kurt Busch is a very capable road course driver. In the last two seasons on this track type he’s accumulated the 4th most points. Besides his raw Top Tier Elite talent you have to like how he’s run this season. He’s been piggy backing off Harvick’s setups and it’s taken him far. Last year at Sonoma Harvick’s car was in a league of its own. When you combine that attribute with him arguably being the best Sonoma driver over the last four years watch out because good things are in store. This week Kurt Busch is using a new chassis. In practice he was very fast and he’s earned his spot to be mentioned as one of the contenders to win. Following his 2nd place qualifying effort he seemed very confident with his car.
Sonoma History – Kurt Busch has been a great driver at Sonoma. He’s a former champion and over the last four races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps, has a 5.0 average finish and an 8.8 average running position. In 2014 he had a great car and ran towards the front for a large percentage of the race. Speed wise he might’ve been top five good but pit strategy led to him finishing 12th. In 2013 he had a great car and overcame two speeding penalties to finish 4th. His first speeding penalty came while he was running in 2nd. In 2012 when he drove the #51 car he drove his guts out and finished 3rd with a car that clearly had something wrong with it at the end of the race. In 2011 when he drove for Penske he had a dominant performance going to victory lane and leading 76 laps.
Recent Similar Track History – Kurt Busch has been good enough to win at Watkins Glen in the past and he currently has back to back top tens. In 6 of the last 8 races there he’s finished in the top 11.
Momentum – Kurt Busch is fresh off a win at Michigan. Since Richmond minus Dover he has a 6.2 average finish and has had a result in the top twelve every race.
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2) Jeff Gordon (Starting – 5th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Sonoma Fantasy Bottom Line – Jeff Gordon is NASCAR’s King of the Road and nobody has won more on this track type then him. Between the two road courses he’s been far better at Sonoma where he’s been to victory lane 5 times. A strong case could be made that this is his best venue. 2015 hasn’t been a great year for Gordon but this is a “skill track” where the driver is a difference maker. One attribute you really have to like about him is all of his experience. NASCAR’s testing ban might really hurt some drivers this weekend. In practice Gordon showed good speed and I think he’s fairly happy with the 24. This will be his final start at his “real home track” and look for him to have a strong showing from the 5th place starting position.
Sonoma History – Jeff Gordon is a living legend at Sonoma. He’s won here five times, has finished in the top five 64% percent of the time and in the top ten 82% percent of the time. Currently at Sonoma he has 9 straight top tens. In three of the last four races he’s finished second. Last year en route to his runner-up finish he had a great race. He was strong over long runs and earned the 3rd best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2013 Gordon was at this best at the end and his 2nd didn’t come easy. On lap 25 while he was running in 9th he got penalized for pitting too early under caution which dropped him to 39th. In 2012 Gordon finished 6th but he was better than his result. In that event he had a minor setback when he ran out of gas under green around the midpoint while he was running in 2nd. That dropped him back to 15th with only half the race remaining. In 2011 Gordon finished 2nd. His most recent victory was in 2006.
Recent Similar Track History – Jeff Gordon had a great car at Watkins Glen last year but his race wasn’t incident free. Since 2002 I would argue it’s his worst track on the schedule and his best finish since then is 9th.
Momentum – Jeff Gordon has cooled off in recent weeks and frustration has grown. Over the last four races he’s scored the 13th most points and has a 15.0 average finish.
Further Recommended Reading – Sonoma Post Practice Predictions, Sonoma Starting Lineup, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Enhanced Practice #1 Speeds for Contenders, Enhanced Practice #1 Speeds For Notables, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report
3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 17th) (Odds To Win – 6/1 )
Sonoma Fantasy Bottom Line – Kevin Harvick has been the driver to beat week in and week out this season. I expect nothing out of the norm at Sonoma. Last year at road courses he was fast at both venues but incidents kept him from getting the good results he deserved. In 2014 at this venue he was the driver to beat and over long runs he was in a league of his own. If his race would’ve been incident free I think he would’ve won. On Sunday he’ll be driving the same chassis again. In practice Kevin Harvick’s long run dominance has continued. In practice #1 he had the best 5 lap average by a healthy margin and was the only driver who completed 10 consecutive laps. On Sunday Harvick is starting in 17th.
Sonoma History – Kevin Harvick has run well at Sonoma. Last year his car was the class of the field. Over long runs nobody could match his speed and prior to the first caution he built up a 12 second lead! Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free. Pit cycles shuffled him back in the pack and while he was working his way towards the front he was collected in a wreck when Bowyer spun. When the checkered flag waved he finished 20th, led 23 laps and earned the 7th best driver rating. In 2013 he had a solid afternoon. He finished 10th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. In 2012 he finished 16th but he was better than his result. Around lap #70 he ran out of gas while running near the top ten. That was a costly mistake which ultimately led to him getting lapped. Also a little later in the event after he got a “Lucky Dog” he lost several positions on the track after Hamlin spun in turn #11 and he had to make evasive maneuvers. In the next two most recent Sonoma races he finished 3rd and 9th.
Recent Similar Track History – Harvick is a former winner at Watkins Glen and his overall average finish is 12.6. Last year he had one of the strongest cars over long runs but self-inflicted mistakes held him back and he finished 7th as a result.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick had the best car at Michigan but a flat tire derailed his day. In the six races prior to that he had a 4.2 average finish with four runner-up results.
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