Kentucky Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Quaker State 400
There’s a lot of variables for this week’s race at Kentucky Speedway, believe it or not. First of all, rain played some games with the schedule. They did get two practice sessions in, though, and those results can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to check out our notes for each: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Rain washed out qualifying, though, so Kyle Larson will lead the field to the green on Saturday night. The full Quaker State 400 starting lineup can be found here. Second, NASCAR is testing a new aero package this weekend, which everyone thinks will help even out the field. And finally, the bumps. This is a worn-out race track and whoever can master the bumps will definitely have an advantage in the Quaker State 400.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Quaker State 400:
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Kentucky is one track that Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at but it’s going to happen soon–and yes I realize that the Sprint Cup Series has only ran four races here. This team is running so well right now that even when they seem a little bit off in practice they come home top 5. We always talk about Kevin Harvick and how the #4 Chevrolet constantly has a bunch of speed but what about this #48 Chevrolet? Nine of the last eleven Sprint Cup events have ended with JJ in 6th place or better. That’s not too shabby if you ask me, and he should easily make it ten of the last twelve here at Kentucky on Saturday night. In his four career starts here, Johnson has never finished worse than 10th, and he had a great car here in 2013, leading 2/3rds of the race before ultimately finishing 9th. Jimmie will roll off the grid in 6th for this year’s Quaker State 400 and should be a solid top 5 car all night. He was 6th-fastest in Practice #1 this weekend and ended up 9th on the speed chart in Happy Hour with the 7th-best ten-lap average.
2. Brad Keselowski – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This team needs a good run…bad. With his 29th-place finish at Daytona last weekend, Brad Keselowski now has just one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races, and that came in that crazy rain-filled race at Michigan. Now, as I said before, this new rules package should really benefit teams that aren’t part of Stewart-Haas or Hendrick, and that means Penske. Also mentioned before was the fact that the Blue Deuce had a bunch of speed in practice, winding up 2nd in Practice #2 and P2 in Happy Hour as well. Keselowski is a two-time winner in the Cup Series here at Kentucky Speedway (meaning he has won 50% of the Cup races here) and that includes his dominating effort from the pole here last season. There’s a lot of things going right for this #2 team this weekend, including the fact that BK will start on the outside pole. The question for fantasy owners is this, though: can you trust him? We’ve been burned so many times recently, it’s hard to. With that being said, Kentucky Speedway is a great track for Keselowski and he should be a top 5 threat on Saturday night.
3. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
After the wild night at Daytona, the fact that Joey Logano came home with a 22nd-place finish is almost unbelievable and just shows how good this team is at overcoming adversity. It also showed the drive of the team and their “never give up” attitude. That’s what you need in your fantasy picks. The new aero package could easily play right into the hands of the Penske Racing Fords because they’ve been down on speed for a couple of months now. They’re still getting the finishes (especially Logano) but they’re not out there leading laps like normal. That could easily change this Saturday night in the Quaker State 400. Logano will roll off the grid in 4th thanks to qualifying getting rained out, but I think he may have started around there anyway because both him and teammate Brad Keselowski showed good speed in both practice sessions. Logano was 4th-fastest in Practice #1 and ended up 3rd-quickest in Happy Hour. Joey never really ran well here at Kentucky while with Joe Gibbs Racing, but since joining Penske he has finished 4th and 9th. I’m fully expecting a top 10 finish out of this #22 team on Saturday night, if not a top 5.
4. Kurt Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kurt was complaining about his car quite a bit in Happy Hour but it just isn’t a normal race weekend unless Kurt Busch is complaining about his race car. I still think this #41 Chevrolet has some awesome speed and the fact that this team has notched four straight top 5 finishes in Sprint Cup action should definitely add a little pep to their step. By the way, did you know that Kurt is on that little streak? Because I didn’t. It was a little surprising when I just looked it up. Anyway, in the four Cup races here at Kentucky Speedway, the elder Busch brother has two top 10s and an average result of 11.5. He’s really only had one subpar race at this track and that was back in 2012 while with Phoenix Racing, so you can kind of forget about that. Kurt will start this year’s Quaker State 400 just outside of the top 10. He had the 5th-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Friday evening, though, and was 4th on the ten-lap average chart. Not too shabby considering Kurt was more critical than usual about his race car on the radio…
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
What’s not to like about this #88 team right now? They’re the hottest team in the garage over the last six weeks of racing (6.3 average finish), they’re coming off a win at Daytona, and they’ve been money on the intermediate tracks all season long. Oh, and did I mention qualifying was rained out so Junior will start P10 on Saturday night–at a track in which starting position actually kind of means something? Looking at the recent intermediate track races, the #88 Chevrolet has finished 2nd (Michigan), 3rd (Charlotte and Kansas), and 3rd (Texas). Even if they don’t have the fastest cars this team has been able to make the best out of their raceday situation. Looking specifically at Kentucky Speedway, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has a career average finish of 12.8 in his four starts here and has ended up inside the top 5 in two of the last three races. Junior tweeted that his car had some room for improvement and that seems to be what happened throughout that entire extra session on Friday evening. I might be a little too optimistic for this #88 crew but I think Junior will end up top 5 when the Quaker State 400 is all said and done on Saturday night.
6. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This #4 team notched another top 5 at Daytona last weekend, making it 12 finishes of 5th or better in the first 17 races of the Sprint Cup season. Now we’re at Kentucky Speedway where Kevin Harvick has never posted a result better than 7th. Let me repeat that: “Happy” Harvick has yet to end up inside the top 5 at Kentucky Speedway. Will that change this weekend in the Quaker State 400? With how this season has been going thus far, it’s easy to say that yes, he will finish top 5. However, I’m not as easily convinced. Harvick wasn’t blazingly fast in Practice #1 despite the fact that crew chief Rodney Childers liked his lap times. In Happy Hour, the #4 Chevrolet ended up 15th on the speed chart and didn’t make a long run (perhaps the most surprising thing of all). Like everyone has been saying all week, this new aero package should even out the field, and that means Harvick should have less of an advantage. I still think this #4 Chevrolet is capable of running top 5, but I like the above 5 cars just a little bit better heading into Saturday night’s race. I think this is the lowest I’ve ranked Harvick all season long, by the way. Watch him go out and dominate now…
7. Matt Kenseth – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
You know, this race could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Matt Kenseth. Yeah, this #20 team got to victory lane back at Bristol, but I think everyone is still waiting for them to take a checkered flag at an intermediate track–that’s when Kenseth will really be back. Kentucky has been a very good track for Matt; in the four Sprint Cup races ran here, he has never finished worse than 7th, and he went to victory lane here in 2013. Looking at recent intermediate track races in 2015, the #20 Toyota came home 4th at Michigan and Charlotte and ended up 6th at Kansas in May. If this new aero package does even out the playing field a bit, that should play into the hands of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas because they have lacked a little bit of speed all year. Kentucky Speedway has also been very nice to this organization since it joined the Sprint Cup circuit in 2011. I would have liked to see Kenseth start a little closer to the front on Saturday night but 16th isn’t terrible for him; is average starting spot in the four Cup races here has been 15.8 with an average finish of 4.5. Kenseth topped the ten-lap average chart in Practice #1 and was 10th in overall speed in Happy Hour. He spun in the final minutes of that last practice session and got stuck in the grass but I didn’t hear of any damage that was done.
8. Kyle Busch – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“Rowdy” salvaged his Chase chances at Daytona last weekend by coming home with a 17th-place finish. Now we’re at (arguably) his best track on the circuit with a new rules package that should benefit the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas a lot. Sounds like a perfect combination, doesn’t it? Now let’s just hope Kyle doesn’t drive over his head on Saturday night. Despite the fact that I think it will be a black eye for NASCAR if Busch makes the Chase–you can read about that here–what really matters is that “Rowdy” will be driving his ass off from here on out to get into the top 30 in points. However, I think he’s smart enough to not push the envelope too much, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive he gets. In the four Cup races here in the Bluegrass State, Busch has an average finish of 4.5 and has never ended up worse than 10th. He ran 2nd here last season and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the #18 Toyota inside the top 5 this Saturday night either. Kyle will roll off the grid in 9th when this year’s Quaker State 400 gets going and he posted the 7th-best lap in that final practice session on Friday evening. It’s very hard to go against Kyle Busch at Kentucky Speedway, even if he’s still healing from the broken leg/ankle earlier this year.
9. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Two bad finishes in a row and all of a sudden nobody is talking about Martin Truex, Jr. anymore. It’s weird, isn’t it? I have my concerns about this #78 car right now but I’m waiting to say anything about it until after this weekend, now that we’re finally back to a somewhat normal race track. Truex will roll off the grid in 5th thanks to qualifying getting rained out, so that’s a good sign for this team right off the bat. He had an electrical issue in Happy Hour, though, and that could have been the reason why he was just 17th-fastest on the speed chart because the #78 team did take the time to repair that. As far as history here at Kentucky Speedway, Martin has been somewhat consistent, with finishes of 19th or better in all four of the races here. He ended up 8th here three years ago and followed that up with a 7th-place finish in 2013. I’m finding it hard to come up with a reason that Truex won’t end up inside the top 10 here on Saturday night. The only possible reasoning I could have is that this team doesn’t have very much momentum after Sonoma and Daytona, but that should just give them a little extra motivation to perform well here on Saturday.
10. Denny Hamlin – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
When Denny Hamlin can actually finish a race at Kentucky Speedway, he’s pretty good. I’m looking back at the 2012 event where he started 3rd, led 58 laps, and came home 3rd. Over the last two years Hamlin has had as strong of cars in this race but problem after problem relegated him to 35th and 42nd-place finishes. This #11 team is trying to get is mojo back right now, and got off to a good start at Daytona last weekend with a 3rd-place finish. That was Hamlin’s first top 5 result since his win at Martinsville back in March, believe it or not. This weekend, the #11 Toyota has looked pretty sporty on the track and makes me think he could challenge for another top 5. Hamlin was 8th-fastest in Practice #1 and then went on to post the 4th-fastest lap in Happy Hour along with the 3rd-best ten-lap average. Personally I think taking Denny is a little too risky in fantasy this week, but there is a pretty high reward potential there. And like I said earlier, I think this new aero package is going to help the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas. I guess we’ll find out soon enough…
11. Jeff Gordon – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #24 team hasn’t lacked speed off the truck all season long, so it’s not all that surprising that Gordon will start 3rd for his final race at Kentucky Speedway thanks to qualifying getting rained out. What this team’s problem has been is keeping that speed over the long runs during the race, which is pretty ironic considering they were so good at it last season. Anyway, starting up front will make Jeff Gordon seem like a nice fantasy option this weekend, but I’m not sold on him yet. Remember, this is still the same guy that has only two top 5s this entire season thus far, and after the checkered flag waves here on Saturday night the 2015 season will officially be halfway complete. In his four career starts at this track, Gordon has been solid but not great. He has finished inside the top 10 in all four attempts but he has posted just one top 5 result, and that was a 5th-place run back in 2012. Gordon ended up 12th on the speed chart in Happy Hour on Friday evening with the 10th-best ten-lap average. Unfortunately for Gordon fans I don’t see him getting that Chase-clinching win here at Kentucky Speedway on Saturday night.
12. Kyle Larson – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
This new aero package is supposed to improve passing here at Kentucky Speedway, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to see if that really happens. What I do know is that in previous years track position was a premium here and if you had a good car and could get out front, you could stay there and lead some laps. So obviously it will be interesting to see what Kyle Larson can do with this #42 Chevrolet in the Quaker State 400 on Saturday night. He was the fastest car in Practice #1 (obviously, since Larson is starting on the pole) but Kyle was also fastest in Happy Hour with the 2nd-best ten-lap average. Last year was Kyle’s first Cup start here at Kentucky, and although he started up front (6th) he eventually got into the wall and ended up finishing 40th…so we don’t have a lot of data there. I feel like this team is starting to get in a groove, though, with four results of 17th or better in the last five races. All they need on Saturday night to continue that improvement is another solid top 15 run and I think Larson is definitely capable of that.
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jamie Mac will roll off the grid in 7th for this year’s Quaker State 400, which is a big part of the reason that I have him ranked 13th heading into Saturday night. Also, this team has been one of the most consistent in the garage all season long, and that includes the last two weeks of weird races at Sonoma and Daytona. McMurray got through both of those weeks with finishing inside the top 15 so I’m interested to see if he can keep up this great points pace he’s on here at Kentucky. Looking over the first four Cup races that have been ran at this track, Jamie has that near-win here back in 2013 along with a couple of terrible finishes (37th last season and 36th in the inaugural event). I’m expecting a solid teens finish out of the #1 Chevrolet this weekend and so should you. McMurray ranked 6th in ten-lap average during that Happy Hour session on Friday evening.
14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 19th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This #5 team’s issue is that they lack speed off the truck, and that is especially unfortunate on weekends like this where the starting lineup is set by 1st Practice speeds. They tend to continue to improve on the race car as the weekend goes on, so I’m expecting a pretty good run out of Kasey Kahne here on Saturday night after about halfway through the race. Now, what exactly does that mean? I certainly think he is capable of a top 10 finish in the Quaker State 400, but I have him ranked 14th because it’s Kasey Kahne. There’s just nothing guaranteed with this kid, and I don’t like that kind of unpredictability on my fantasy teams–unless, of course, it turns into an expected win. If Kahne would have looked better in Happy Hour on Friday evening I would have ranked him higher, but posting the 22nd-fastest lap doesn’t do much for me. On a positive note, Kahne has never ended up worse than 13th at Kentucky Speedway and owns an average finish of 8.5 over the four Cup races that have been ran here.
15. Carl Edwards – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
As I’ve said many times in this post, I expect Joe Gibbs Racing to benefit quite a bit from this new rules package. So why do I have Carl Edwards ranked 15th? Well, one, because he starts 20th. And two, he’s still as hard as ever to read in practice. What I’ve noticed this year, however, is that when Edwards looks good in practice, he usually disappoints. When this team looks like they’re struggling in the practice sessions, he runs well. It’s weird and it makes no sense but that’s what’s been happening. Edwards ended up 19th on the speed chart in Happy Hour, by the way. Here at Kentucky, Cousin Carl has that 5th-place finish to his name in the inaugural event, but since then he hasn’t been able to finish better than 17th. I think he beats that this week but I’m not sure by how much. Seriously, I could place Edwards anywhere from 8th to 20th heading into Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 and make a case for that ranking.
The Next Ten:
16. Ryan Newman
17. Austin Dillon
18. Paul Menard
19. Aric Almirola
20. Tony Stewart
21. Casey Mears
22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
23. Danica Patrick
24. Greg Biffle
25. Clint Bowyer
