Loudon Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – 5-Hour Energy 301
Well with how this weekend has gone so far at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, we very well could see another top 5 sweet from Joe Gibbs Racing in Sunday’s 5-Hour Energy 301. I think it’s safe to say that that organization has hit on something lately. Carl Edwards won the pole for this week’s race at Loudon, and the full starting lineup can be found here. There were then two practice sessions on Saturday, and those results are here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Don’t forget to check out our notes on each as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Track position is huge here at this half-mile race track, so starting up front is very important. You also need a good pit crew because one minor screw up could ruin your entire day.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The 5-Hour Energy 301:
1. Kyle Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
…and suddenly the #18 team might be one of the strongest in the garage. Since his return to racing, Kyle Busch has actually been a solid pick every single week. In most races, he had a top 5 car, but bad luck bit “Rowdy” a couple times–most notably at Dover and Michigan. These are the finishes than fantasy owners simply cannot afford to have happen. When the bad luck doesn’t hit the #18 team, though, they’re definitely capable of winning, as we’ve seen twice in the last three races–including Kyle’s dominating performance at Kentucky. Now we’re at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, a track where “Rowdy” Busch has four straight top 10 finishes, three of which were runner-up performances. That’s right: believe it or not, Kyle Busch has finished 2nd in three of the last four Loudon races. You know what’s crazy, though? He has just one Sprint Cup victory at this race track, and that came way back in 2006. Will he grab a second in the 5-Hour Energy 301 on Sunday? Only time will tell. Busch will roll off the grid in 4th when the green flag waves this weekend and I fully expect him to run with the front of the pack all afternoon long. Kyle was 4th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and ended up 3rd on the ten-lap average chart for that session. In Happy Hour, he ranked 4th and 2nd, respectively. It’s hard to go against a driver that has won two of the last three Sprint Cup events, and I wouldn’t recommend doing that this weekend.
2. Denny Hamlin – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
When you think of flat tracks, Denny Hamlin is typically one of the top drivers to come to mind. He’s a two-time winner here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and, like the other Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, Hamlin is starting to get some momentum. After this 3rd-place finish at Kentucky last weekend, he now has two straight top 5s in Sprint Cup action and four finishes of 11th or better over the last five Sprint Cup races. Not too bad. Hamlin has had a couple of bad showings here at Loudon over the last few years but those were mainly due to bad luck. On a positive note, he has three top 10s in the last five events at this track, and that includes finishes of 1st and 2nd here in 2012. The good news for fans (and fantasy owners) of the #11 Toyota is that Denny is usually a pretty good pick when he starts up front. For this Sunday’s 5-Hour Energy 301, he will start 5th. Hamlin wasn’t overly fast in Practice #2 on Saturday (he ended up 17th on the speed chart) but this #11 team found something in Happy Hour, which had conditions more similar to what we will see during the race on Sunday. In that final practice, Hamlin was 5th on the overall speed chart and had the 4th-best ten-lap average. Denny’s career average finish of 10.5 at this race track is 3rd-best among active drivers.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This #4 team ended up 8th at Kentucky last weekend, and it’s hard to believe that fantasy owners all around were not disappointed. We can blame that on the new rules package that NASCAR was testing out, I think. Keep that in mind when we stop at Darlington. Anyway, I think this week’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been circled on the #4 team’s calendar since we kicked off this season at Daytona. I say that because of how excited crew chief Rodney Childers was on Instagram, noting that they had a really fast car the last time we were here. Well, duh, this Chevrolet is blazing fast no matter where we go. Harvick will have some work to do once the green flag flies on Sunday, as he made it to the final round of qualifying but couldn’t do much with it (Kevin qualified 12th). On Saturday, this team really flexed their muscle in Practice #2, posting the top speed along with the 4th-best ten-lap average. He was 2nd and 3rd on those charts in Happy Hour (respectively). Five of the last eight Loudon races have ended with Harvick OUTSIDE of the top 10, but when you look at how good he was here in the fall last season (finished 3rd, led 104 laps), it’s hard to believe that “Happy” won’t at least be in the running for another top 5 finish here on Sunday. By the way, isn’t it nice that Harvick isn’t ranked #1 week in and week out lately? It’s almost refreshing.
4. Carl Edwards – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Good news for Carl Edwards fans: he got rid of that ugly orange Arris paint scheme this weekend in favor of the red and black paint job for SportClips. Oh, and he also won the pole for Sunday afternoon’s 5-Hour Energy 301. I guess the latter is the better news piece… Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the Joe Gibbs Toyotas race here this weekend because I’m expecting a strong showing. We all know that this team is lacking a little bit on the intermediate tracks–although the new rules package at Kentucky helped close the gap a lot–but at these smaller venues where handling is of more importance, the Gibbs teams are right there with everyone else, in my opinion. Carl Edwards came in at 15th in my Pre-Practice rankings this week. After he won the pole on Friday, though, it was clear that he would jump at least a few spots before the actual race. We all know how important track position is at this half-mile race track. Also, the #19 Toyota looked pretty sporty in practice; Carl wound up 3rd-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and had the best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, he was P1 in both overall speed and ten-lap average. I expect Edwards to lead some laps early on in the 5-Hour Energy 301 and come away with a solid top 10 finish at worst. Over the last two years at Loudon, he has averaged the 7th-best finish among active drivers. Most recently, Edwards swept the top 10 in both races here in 2013. It’s worth noting that this #19 team ended Happy Hour early, so they must be very happy with their car.
5. Brad Keselowski – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Bad Brad” was actually my #1-ranked driver heading into the 5-Hour Energy 301 race weekend. Unfortunately he hasn’t done a lot for me to confidently keep him there. With that being said, I still view the #2 Ford as a solid fantasy pick at Loudon, and for good reason: Keselowski has ended up 7th or better here in six of the last seven events, and the only exception to that was an 11th-place finish here in 2013. BK struggled a bit in Practice #2 this weekend, ranking just 18th-fastest, but this team found something once we got to Happy Hour and ended up 7th-quickest in overall speed. The Blue Deuce was 8th in ten-lap average during that final session. Momentum-wise I think Kentucky was a good race for this #2 team last week. Early on, it looked like they had the car to beat, and although the finished a somewhat-disappointing 6th, it was still a step in the right direction. Now we’re at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which has historically been a kind track to Keselowski. Hopefully this team can continue their good runs and get back to being one of the top teams in the series. I’m expecting at least a solid top 10 out of BK on Sunday afternoon, if not a top 5.
6. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
It’s actually been a pretty quiet weekend for Jimmie Johnson despite the fact that he was 2nd-fastest in Saturday’s first practice session. In Happy Hour, the #48 Chevrolet was 13th-fastest with the 9th-best ten-lap average. Even though it’s been a quiet weekend for this team, you can still expect a very solid race out of the #48 this weekend. Jimmie is a three-time winner at Loudon and has ended up 7th or better in five of the last six events here. He has also been super consistent thus far in the 2015 Sprint Cup season and there’s no reason to think that that is suddenly going to stop. Johnson qualified 7th here on Friday and should be a solid 4th to 9th place car all day long on Sunday. If Chad Knaus can really put some more speed into this car, though, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Jimmie grab another victory. To put it as simple as possible, Jimmie Johnson will be a very good fantasy pick on Sunday, and that shouldn’t be a surprise.
7. Kurt Busch – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
This #41 team put a lot of laps on the car in practice this weekend, which makes me think that they are very happy with this machine and should have a good race on Sunday. Kurt was 5th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and had the 7th-best ten-lap average; in Happy Hour, the #41 Chevrolet was 11th on the overall speed chart and ended up 7th in ten-lap average speed. Kurt will roll off the grid in 6th when this year’s 5-Hour Energy 301 goes green and I fully expect him to run solidly inside the top 10 all day long. My only concern is how Kurt Busch has ran here at Loudon as of late. From 2008 to 2010, Kurt never finished worse than 6th in a Sprint Cup race at this track. In the nine races since then, he has just one top 10 finish at that was a 10th-place result back in 2011. You can see why I view Busch as a pretty risky fantasy pick this weekend. Still, with how this team has been running, I think Kurt will break that streak here on Sunday and post a good finish. Let’s not forget that this #41 team has seven top 10 results over the last eight Sprint Cup races.
8. Joey Logano – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Joey Logano might have the most up-and-down record here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which is crazy considering he is a two-time winner at this track–including last year’s fall event. Looking at Logano’s 13 career starts at Loudon, he has finished 14th or better in eight of them. In the other five races, Joey’s results were all outside of the top 20, with all but one also being worse than 30th. Like I said, up and down. This weekend, the #22 Ford is going to be on a lot of fantasy rosters because Logano qualified on the outside pole. However, I’m still a little skeptical. For one, the Penske teams seem to always qualify well no matter what track we’re at, and I’m still leery on this #22 team’s ability to keep up with a race track. The good thing for them is that the 5-Hour Energy 301 is scheduled to run in the afternoon hours and not transition into night. It’s hard for me to confidently place Logano as a top 5 driver heading into this weekend’s race, but to that same point it is hard to go against the guy who has four top 5s in the last five Sprint Cup races. Either way, I see Logano as a top 10 car at worst on Sunday.
9. Matt Kenseth – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a great venue for Matt Kenseth, and I fully expect his strong runs here to continue this Sunday in the 5-Hour Energy 301. If you’ve followed this driver for any length of time, you know that when Kenseth qualifies up front, he has a good race car for the race. The #20 Toyota will roll off the grid in 8th when we go green, so that tells me that this car was right on the edge of being great when they took it off the truck. Typically Kenseth gets better as a race weekend goes on, so that’s good news for his fans and fantasy owners of the #20. Matt was 6th on the overall speed chart in Practice #2 but never made any long runs, which is kind of concerning considering we’re at a half-mile race track. In Happy Hour, Kenseth laid down the 9th-fastest lap and ended up 10th in ten-lap average. Over the last two years at this track, Kenseth has one victory and three top 10 finishes to his credit. And I’m really liking what I’ve seen out of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas as of late at other tracks as well. Like I’ve said before, I think they might have hit on something here lately. I view Kenseth as a potential top 5 threat this weekend.
10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s a good thing that NASCAR’s most popular driver got Twitter because it gives us an insight into how good his car is every weekend. There are some drivers that will simply blow smoke up everyone’s ass when asked how their car is for the race, but Junior tends to be pretty honest–similar to how Mark Martin was when he raced. This week at Loudon, Earnhardt said they were decent in the first Saturday practice and needed more front grip rolling center. In Happy Hour, he said they improved on that issue and saw more speed in the car. To translate, they’re making the car better, and this #88 team tends to improve during the race as well. Junior also tweeted that he thought they were a top 10 car according to some math of averaging every lap (I’m not sold on it, but you can view the tweet here). New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a good track for Junior and he is currently on a three-race streak of top 10s at this venue. On Sunday, he starts mid-pack (19th) but I think the #88 Chevrolet is good enough to get into the top 10 before it’s all said and done. Now, with that being said, if you want to take a break from picking Earnhardt this weekend, I wouldn’t blame you. When you take a high caliber fantasy driver like Junior, you expect a top 5 finish. And heading into Sunday’s 5-Hour Energy 301, I’m not exactly sure that’s possible for this #88 team.
11. Jamie McMurray – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Ever since the beginning of the week, I have expected big things out of Jamie McMurray and this #1 team in the 5-Hour Energy 301, and that has not changed one bit. Remember, Jamie Mac was my top sleeper pick heading into the race this weekend. New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a great race track for this guy over the past couple of years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise when McMurray ends up on more rosters than normal this Sunday. Over the last four events at this track, Jamie hasn’t ended up worse than 16th and he has posted top 5 results in each of the last two fall races. We’re just waiting for that success to translate over to the summer race, and I think that might be able to happen on Sunday in the 5-Hour Energy 301. McMurray qualified 11th for this weekend’s event and ended up 7th on the overall speed chart in Practice #2. He also had the 8th-best ten-lap average. Unfortunately, in Happy Hour, Jamie was just 20th-fastest and ranked just 16th in ten-lap average. Still, I think there’s some good speed in both Ganassi Chevrolets this weekend and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see both the #1 and the #42 pull off top 10 finishes on Sunday.
12. Kyle Larson – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“The Phenom,” as I call him, made it on to my list of the top sleeper picks for the race at Loudon this weekend, and the same holds true. I just wish he would have qualified better (Larson starts 17th). It’s hard not to have high hopes for this kid when the #42 Chevrolet has been so fast lately. Not to mention Larson finished top 5 in both races here last season, which was his rookie campaign in the Sprint Cup Series. The problem with this #42 team right now is that they simply can’t put a full race weekend together. Once they figure that out, we very well could see young Kyle holding the trophy in Gatorade Victory Lane. Will that happen this weekend? I don’t think so, but it wouldn’t be crazy to say that Larson could end up in the top 10 when the 5-Hour Energy 301 is all said and done. Despite starting mid-pack, the #42 Chevrolet actually has some speed. Larson was 8th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ended up 8th-fastest in Happy Hour as well. In terms of ten-lap average, he was 6th on that chart in the morning and 12th in the final session. I’d have much more confidence in the #42 if they started closer to the front, but that doesn’t keep me from saying that Larson would be an excellent fantasy sleeper pick here on Sunday.
13. Kasey Kahne – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kasey Kahne gets ranked in the top 15 this week because he qualified 9th for this year’s 5-Hour Energy 301 and because he has a Hendrick engine under the hood. With that being said, I personally think that he is too risky of a pick to put on many fantasy rosters. However, if you’re looking to take a chance, I couldn’t blame you for taking the #5 Chevrolet. When Kasey joined Hendrick Motorsports back in 2012, he started off with a bang at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, winning the first race and coming home 5th in the fall event. Since then, he hasn’t been able to finish better than 11th at this venue, although it should be noted that that is exactly where he has ended up in both summer races here over the last two years. Kahne was 11th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ended up 16th on the Happy Hour speed chart. From a pure speed vantage point, Kahne is simply a top 15 threat going into Sunday. However, you never know how these races will play out so he might be able to squeak out a top 10.
14. Clint Bowyer – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Clint Bowyer and the #15 Toyota have been junk all season long and it’s gotten to the point where fantasy racers won’t even consider him when making their picks. However, there are certain tracks where Clint could be a solid pick, such as Sonoma. He finished 3rd in that race. There are other tracks where he’s on a streak of top 10s and has somehow managed to luck into another this season (think back to Michigan and look up his stats there…seriously). Now let’s look at Loudon. On a good year, I would consider this a venue where Bowyer could potentially win at if he was having a good year. Now obviously that isn’t the case right now. But still, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Clint might be able to squeak out a top 10 finish here on Sunday. He qualified 18th for the 5-Hour Energy 301, which isn’t terrible, and followed that up with a minor improvement to 16th in Practice #2. In Happy Hour, however, Bowyer really shot up the speed chart and ended up with the 6th-fastest lap. He was just 17th in ten-lap average, though. Since joining Michael Waltrip Racing, Clint Bowyer has finished 3rd, 13th, and 6th in the summer races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Call me crazy but I just might put the #15 Toyota on some of my rosters this weekend…
15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Now that this team is locked in to the Chase, it’s like they’ve taken their foot off the gas. I think this was most evident at Kentucky last weekend, although that could have also been due to the rules package change. Either way, Truex is no longer the fantasy racing stud we’ve been leaning on pretty much all season long, so it’ll be interesting to see if this #78 team can bounce back here at Loudon on Sunday. Truex hasn’t finished better than 10th here since early in the 2011 season, but throughout those seven events, he also never ended up worse than 17th. Therefore, logic says that with the way this team has been running in 2015, Martin should have a 6th to 12th place car in the 5-Hour Energy 301 on Sunday. He qualified 15th for this week’s race, which is a little discouraging, and Truex was just 14th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. He had the 5th-best ten-lap average during that session, though. In Happy Hour, the #78 Chevrolet was 14th in terms of one fast lap. I’ve lost quite a bit of faith in Martin Truex, Jr. over the last three Sprint Cup races, but my optimistic side says that they’re just in a slump and could easily break out of that here at Loudon on Sunday.
The Next Ten:
16. Jeff Gordon
17. Ryan Newman
18. David Ragan
19. Ryan Blaney
20. Austin Dillon
21. Greg Biffle
22. Danica Patrick
23. Aric Almirola
24. Casey Mears
25. Paul Menard
