New Hampshire 301 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 12th) (Odds To Win – 7/2)
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat on Sunday at New Hampshire. At the start of the weekend his car wasn’t to his liking but it improved every practice session. In Happy Hour he seemed to really like his car and Brad Keselowski mentioned him as one of the favorites based on speed. In that session his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. In practice #2 it ranked as the 4th best. The last 11 races at New Hampshire have been won from 11 different drivers and Harvick is eligible to keep that streak going.
Kentucky History – Kevin Harvick is a great driver at New Hampshire. Last fall he arguably had the best car but failed to reach victory lane. In the race he had the best PROS Ranking, best driver rating, led the most laps (104) and finished 3rd. He had an excellent chance to win but at the end he was at a tire disadvantage. In July 2014 his team approached the race as a test session and his car wasn’t as strong as he would’ve liked. Performance wise he was probably around 8th place good. In the race he had a 9th place average running position, earned the 12th best driver rating and finished 30th. His result deserves an asterisk mark because he was attempting fuel mileage strategy at the end but it back fired when the race went to overtime. With two laps to go he ran out of gas while running in the top five and that led to his poor result. In his eight New Hampshire races prior to joining Stewart-Haas Racing he had an 11.1 average finish, 13.3 average running position and the 13th best driver rating. In 2006 Harvick won his only win at New Hampshire.
Recent Similar Track Trends – In the last five races at shorter flat tracks Harvick has scored the most points, has won twice, has a 2.4 average result and has led the most laps (611). In 2015 on this sub-track type he has results of 1st and 2nd.
Momentum – This season Harvick’s finished in the top ten in every race except Bristol where he had problems while running in third, and Michigan where he had problems while leading.

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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 10/1)
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch appears to have a great car this weekend and he was a standout to Brad Keselowski based on speed. That should say a lot about how good he is. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. Recently at New Hampshire Busch has been an elite performer and has been one of the drivers to beat. One aspect I like about him is his momentum. That means his team is clicking on all gears and isn’t doing a lot of things wrong. When you combine momentum, a fast car and a good track record expect him to be very competitive on Sunday.
New Hampshire History – Kyle Busch has been a phenomenal performer at New Hampshire and has recently been one of the strongest performers. Over the last four New Hampshire races Busch has the 2nd best driver rating, a 3.5 average finish, a 6.8 average running position and has led 115 laps. Last fall he finished 8th in a car that looked DNF worthy. His event wasn’t incident free. On lap 188 he ran into the back of Kenseth and then Kahne ran into the back of him. The result of that contact was a spin and heavily damaged hood that dropped him back to the low twenties. At the time of the incident he was running around 7th. In the three New Hampshire races prior to that he had three straight runner-up results. Last July he started on the pole, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 62 laps. In fall 2013 his car was very strong and he was the only driver who could challenge race winner Matt Kenseth. In July 2013 he started in 4th and drove up to the lead on lap 10. When he got to the front he paced the field for 53 laps. The strength of his car in the race was short runs. Over long runs he appeared to be somewhat vulnerable. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 3rd place average running position and earned the best driver rating. In 2012 he had one of the best cars in both races but walked away with misleading results.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Kyle Busch missed both shorter flat track races earlier this year. From a historical perspective he’s been elite good on this sub-track type.
Momentum –Kyle Busch has won two of the last three races. Since making his return he’s been very strong and has had top ten potential every race.

Further Recommended Reading – New Hampshire Post Practice Predictions, 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, NASCAR Practice #2 Notes, NASCAR Practice #2 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Qualifying Results, Scouting Report, Odds To Win, Shorter Flat Track Last Five Races Statistical Cheat Sheet

3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 5th) (Odds To Win – 12/1)
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin runs well at New Hampshire and it’s the type of track that I like to pick him at. My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy mantra is, “If it’s short or flat, pick Hamlin”. Both of those criteria are completed at this venue. In his career at New Hampshire he’s been to victory lane twice and has finished in the top ten 61% percent of the time. On Sunday I expect him to run well and be in the mix. In final practice he was very happy with his car and his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best.
New Hampshire History – Denny Hamlin is a strong performer at New Hampshire. He’s been to victory lane twice and has finished in the top ten 61% percent of the time. Last fall he had a strong car but walked away with a misleading 37th place finish. In the race he started in 4th and led 32 laps but on lap 96 he came to pit road for an unexpected stop because his team had problems filling his car up with gas. Shortly after that during a caution his team lost 4 laps on pit road trying to repair the issue. Then later in the race Hamlin’s afternoon ended when he was caught up in a multi-car wreck. In July 2014 he had a strong performance and finished 8th. In the race he performed better than his result and was running in 2nd when the final caution came out. Since he was short on fuel because of a fuel mileage gamble he was forced to pit. In the race performance wise he clearly had a top three car. It was good over long runs, rotated well in the corners and had good drive off. In the race Hamlin started in 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 20 laps. In fall 2013 he had an OK car. He finished 12th, had a 12th place average running position and earned the 12th best driver rating.
Recent Similar Track Trends – Hamlin hasn’t been the best driver at other shorter flat tracks recently. This year on this sub-track type he has results of 22nd and 23rd.
Momentum – Denny Hamlin has back to back 3rd place finishes. Over the last five races he’s scored the 5th most points and has a 9.0 average finish.